10.22.2006

Trout's Picks of Contrariety, Week 7

Let me just throw this out there before I begin. It doesn't matter at this point whether or not Gage gets back to basics, asks Bill Simmons who he should pick, or thinks he hears a voice from God, he is destined to lose his picks this week and every week to follow. That Gage should lose has become something of a law of nature--may I suggest we call it "Gage's Law"? It's only a matter of time before said law is written into gambling guides and physics textbooks across the land. On to the picks!

Detroit (+3.5) over NY Jets
Jon Kitna will game manage his way to a 3 point loss to the Jets. I'm envisioning a field goal to cover as time expires. Why Rod Marinelli hates Gage so much, I don't know. Maybe it's just Gage's Law. Anyway, Roy Williams will torch the Jets' secondary for another 150 yard game. This guy has got to be the best receiver on a bad team, right? I mean, he's got Kitna throwing to him all game, he's the only good receiver on the team, and the opponent doesn't exactly have to key on Kevin Jones' running game.

Washington (+8) over Indy
First off, the whole Madden prediction system only picked the Colts to win by one. As if that wasn't enough, let's not forget that the Colts play down to the level of their opponent. I think their strategy this year, after the almost-undefeated season full of blowouts '05, is to play close games all fucking year so that they don't forget what it's like. Here's why: chances are that they won't have to play in New England, and they know that they're making the playoffs anyway. Hence, Colts only win this one by a TD, at most.

Kansas City (+5) over San Diego
Interestingly enough, Larry Johnson has only been slightly less disappointing this year than Shaun Alexander. At least Shaun has his Jesus-healed broken foot as an excuse; LJ only has his offensive line and the lack of Trent Green to point to. I offer the following as LJ's fantasy epitaph "Never, ever, ever underrate the importance of a run-blocking O-line." I'm picking KC in this one solely on the basis of three facts: KC playing at Arrowhead, Gage's Law, and the San Diego bandwagon is getting a little overloaded.

Carolina (+3) over Cincy
Just because I don't want Gage to have a meltdown before Halloween (we have got to see his costume interpretation of the Notorious G.O.D. at all costs), I'm picking Carolina to lose this one by 3 or less, just enough to cover. Betting on your team is pretty dicey, though, when there's Gage's Law to contend with. I would advise against it in the future, Gage.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Hotlanta
P-burgh is back. I'm not necessarily jumping on the Roethlisberger bandwagon (in fact, I'd be willing to say that he'll never have as good a season as he did last year), but the Steelers defense should be enough to stop Vick and the mysteriously perennially sucky Atlanta offense. The only time they've broken 30 this year is against the Cardinals, which is none too impressive considering the Bears defense and special teams almost matched that last week.