MLB Deadline: Anatomy of a Trade

I've been laid up for a couple of days with Strep Throat (I thought I was dying with a 102 fever) which gave me some time to think. Sadly, I didn't come up with anything terribly profound, but rather devoted my life to FIFA 2007. I won the UEFA Cup with Rangers yesterday, so that's something.

Anyway, it took me until last night to think of something worth writing about and it's all thanks to that genius of the Fox Sports Ohio booth, Chris Welsch. He got to talking about the trade deadline and insisted that we would see some action out of Wayne Krivsky and the Reds. Well, that got me thinking okay, but who would they move? Which got me thinking okay, but what would actually be a good trade deadline move?

It seems to me that the the primary premise behind making a move at the deadline involves how teams value players. Basically, in the off-season a player has a certain value; but, as the deadline approaches that changes. Teams in contention suddenly overvalue players who can come in and strengthen a weakness right away. This gives a value advantage to the teams building for the future. So, he's what I see as defining a reasonable (note: I'm not even saying good) trade deadline move:

- Has to be a trade that at least one team would not have made before the season started. Otherwise, it should have already been done, right?

- One team has to fill an obvious void in their team.

- The other team has to get at least one young player with a whole bunch of upside.

- At least one team has to improve their future financial situation. A team who trades away their superstar with an expiring contract doesn't make their fans happy, but that's the way the league works. The truth though, is a "hired gun" can be a short term bulge in payroll, but at the end of the season leaves some financial room to play with, giving some flexibility to the buyer as well.

That said, looking back, "the trade" last year between the Reds and Nationals (Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns for Royce Clayton, Bill Bray and Gary Majewski) didn't really make sense for the Nationals because Lopez and Kearns had pretty much reached their ceilings talent-wise. The Reds made their major mistake in what is pretty much the standard mistake every year; they far overvalued the players they were receiving. Good God did they overvalue Royce Clayton.

Now, I don't have the energy to figure out who's out there for the Reds to go get, but I think I could make a fairly comprehensive list of who might be desirable to contending teams. Here's my list: Griffey, Dunn, Hatteberg, Conine, Phillips, Harang, Arroyo, and Weathers. The last two might seem questionable given the poor year Bronson is having and the fact that Weathers is no spring chicken, but I've heard Arroyo's name thrown around and Weathers is actually having a decent season amidst the worst bullpen in the history of time.

Harang and Phillips aren't going anywhere. These guys are the face of the franchise going forward and you have to have some foundation to build on. I could see some Weathers/Hatteberg package for prospects. And, of course there's the Dunn options. I just hope the Reds take the time to make strategic trades and not hasty ones.

I guess my whole point here is that the problem with these trades is that there's no definitive, quantitative way to assess value (and how it changes). The only way to really feel good about a trade is if your team dumps a bunch of untenable payroll or completely bilks some desperate GM out of young talent. Either way, it's always entertaining.

Woohoo! Not The Worst Anymore!

                W       L        PCT    GB      Streak  L10
Kansas City     41      53      .436    16.5    Won 2   5-5
Texas           41      54      .432    17      Lost 2  5-5
Cincinnati      41      55      .427    17.5    Won 4   7-3
Pittsburgh      40      54      .426    17.5    Lost 6  3-7
Washington      40      55      .421    18      Won 2   6-4
Houston         40      55      .421    18      Lost 1  3-7
San Francisco   39      54      .419    18      Lost 2  3-7
Tampa Bay       37      57      .394    20.5    Lost 1  4-6

There's your bottom eight of the current overall MLB standings this morning. Thanks to a wonderfully predictable 8th inning meltdown by Armando "Seriously, He's Still Pitching?" Benitez, the Reds were able to run their win streak to a modest four games. Finally, they are no longer the worst team in baseball, and are even third worst in their own division. Break out the ticker tape! Admittedly, they haven't exactly lived up to my lofty prediction but I'm not complaining. Who knows if it's all attributed to mah man P-Mack; or if the team was just due to pull their collective heads out of the sand and start playing some decent baseball. Oh, by the way, Benitez gave up the eventual winning runs on a home run to Ryan Freel of all people. If there ever was a sign that it's time to retire, that has to be it.

Elsewhere, I managed to catch the 30 seconds of Reds baseball per week that the bozos filling in for Mike & Mike (I swear those guys miss at least two days a week) were talking this morning while they had Peter Gammons on the show. Gammons seemed to believe that there was a very real possibility of both Tony La Russa and GM Walt Jocketty coming to Cincinnati next season. Surely this could never happen, right? Both a manager and a GM moving to a division rival? I don't even know how I would feel about having a drunk driving, vegetarian, puppy lover as a manager.

Pete Mackanin Will Now Fix The Reds

As everyone already knows, the axe finally fell on Jerry Narron this week and he was replaced with the team's advance scout (the obvious next man in the line of succession) Pete Mackanin. And let me be one of the minions saying THANK GOD for this move. Any serious Reds fan can tell you that Jerry Narron was personally responsible for every single loss this season. It's his fault there's not a single reliever who can pitch the eighth inning. It's his fault Bronson Arroyo has apparently signed his contract extension and stopped trying. And it's most definitely his fault that there haven't been enough morale-boosting dugout brawls.

Of course, Mackanin (henceforth known as P-Mack) came in and won his first game Tuesday night. Obviously this job is just that easy. Yes, there was a slight hiccup on Wednesday but I'll just chalk that up to Independence Day jitters. So, what I'm saying here is that it's going to be a great second half now that the Reds have officially fixed all their problems. Current record: 32-52. Final record: 110-52. Here's a little taste of how July will go down:

July
Arizona - Talk about easy. P-Mack will be described as "using Randy Johnson's height against him." It will revolutionize the entire sport.

NY Mets - The city that never sleeps? How about the manager that never sleeps? Our new manager doesn't sleep, but he does spend three hours a night hanging upside down by his ankles in a hypnotic trance. He emerges every morning with strategies and helpful hints for the players such as "Stop throwing 78 mph fastballs, pussy."

Atlanta - P-Mack will calmly explain to Chipper Jones that a grown man going by a nickname too effeminate for even a stripper is nothing to be proud of. This conversation will be followed by a press release declaring the third baseman be referred to as "Larry" from now on. Apparently Larry is not as good as Chipper and goes 0/15 in the series.

Florida - They'll be riding the D-Train all the way to the broom store to celebrate yet another Reds' sweep. Booyah.

Milwaukee - The surprise team of the first half will be surprised to learn that they're really not as good as they think. P-Mack will calmly point this out over a platter of various wieners that will not be racing. Prince Fielder will immediately devour the entire platter. Because he's chubby.

Chicago - P-Mack will grab a saddle, mount Carlos Zambrano and tame him like a wild stallion. Zambrano will take P-Mack's advice and pursue a new career as entertainment at young girls' birthday parties.

Washington - The manager will invite Ken Griffey Jr. into his office to "discuss the mysteries of the universe." Griffey will emerge at peace and proceed to hit 12 home runs in this series. That will be a record.

Enjoy the games folks. And just wait until August when P-Mack really gets settled in.

That's SO Random! With Gage

I need a good title for random thoughts posts. "That's SO Random!" made me laugh to myself today, so that's what you get. Any suggestions? Anyway...

- I have virtually nothing to write about with the Reds anymore. It becomes a little redundant talking about the team with the worst record in baseball sucking. I feel sorry for the beat writers. The whole Griffey returns to Seattle angle must have felt like Christmas. Hell, I'll probably be writing a "Can the Reds Finish Out of Last Place" post in August. Well, at least they don't have the fourth highest payroll in all of baseball and still suck.

- At the risk of making every post this summer about soccer, I've really become obsessed with the game. One of my very favorite daily bookmarks is the BBC's daily Gossip & Transfers column. Basically they've managed to take the rumor page of your favorite American paper and turn it into a Soccer version of Us Weekly. This what happens when you stop having to verify sources.

- Elsewhere in soccer, USA starts play in Copa America tomorrow vs. Argentina who should absolutely destroy us if all goes according to plan. I don't get the channel broadcasting the game, so I will be watching the Spanish language version at a friend's house with his Honduran fiance's non-English-speaking family. I can't wait.

- Very little Bengals news lately. Is that odd for June? I can never remember. I guess, at this point, no news is good news with this team. I sense an interesting dynamic though among fans. Nobody wants to get overly optimistic going into this season (at least not yet). After an 11-5 record in 2005-06 everybody had their blinders on, looking to the postseason. And, frankly 8-8 was a huge letdown. I guess nobody is holding their breath this year. At least until the first "Caleb Miller is Absolutely Crushing People" report comes out of training camp.

- One final note: Griffey to the Cubs, never going to happen. However, it did stir up some interesting reactions out of me. For all the struggles he's had in Cincy he's still the face of the franchise and the biggest fan favorite. I'd hate to see him go, but I have to admit my immediate second reaction was "wow, I wonder what they could get for him?" And, to close with your terrible joke of the day: maybe they could get Carlos Zambrano and a temper tantrum to be named later.

Where's my rim shot?

Adam Dunn's Last Name Can Be Substituted For The Word "Done" To Create Hilarious Headlines

The secret is out, maybe. Adam Dunn is supposedly on the trading block and nobody is denying it. What's this mean? Well, the 50-homer-potential player who makes over $10 million per year could be heading out of the 'Nati to greener pastures. If you haven't read the details, Dunner isn't technically in the final year of his contract, but his club option for next year would be voided by a trade. That's a club option that the Reds would most certainly take advantage of, but would really sting them in their most sensitive area, the pocketbook. Getting rid of that salary could be a real coup for club, seeing as how they finally get rid of Eric Milton's contract ($10 million this year) after this season; meaning they'd have somewhere in the ballpark of $20 million to play with. That's an obscene amount of money for a team whose biggest free agent signing last winter was Alex Gonzalez (again, not the really shitty one, just the mediocre one).

Should the Reds trade Dunn? Well, a poll on Cincinnati.com shows the fans are pretty divided, but I think it's time. Just like Sean Casey did, Dunn has played just well enough for just long enough to be out of the Reds price range. It's time to get decent value for him and set yourself up for a push in the off season. All of this begs the question: where would he go? It's got to be a contendor and a team looking for some power that can put up with the strikeouts.

LA Dodgers - The team that really looks like they should win the NL West appears to be having trouble scoring runs. The Dodgers rank 12th in the NL in runs scored in June and are next to last in HR this season (only 39 in 64 games). It could happen because the Dodgers clearly are a "big market" team and could afford the salary hit. Unfortunately they've already got Luis Gonzalez in LF, so that could be awkward. (While we're here, please enjoy this awkward Nomar/Mia Hamm picture)

Detroit - I could see an Adam Dunn for Craig Monroe & prospects type of deal (assuming Detroit wanted to get rid of Monroe's almost $5m salary). Then, he and Sheffield could take turns booting balls in LF.

Minnesota - This one certainly makes sense, and I feel like the notion of a Twins pitching prospect can only be a good thing (see: Santana, Liriano), but it's really hard to see the financials working out. Twins management is too savvy, despite their glaring hole in left field.

Anaheim - The Angels have shown no lack of financial resources in the past few years. Plus, they could certainly use a DH with some pop. Interestingly, the Angels are coming to the 'Nati tonight for a three game set. If, by some chance, Dunn gets hot and bangs two or three big homers in this series, we could find ourselves with a motivated buyer.

NY Mets - Moises Alou is 40, and was eligible to come off the DL over a week ago but didn't. Shawn Green and Endy Chavez have both been hurt. You have to think Omar Minaya is going to think long and hard about a 27 year old slugger regardless of the money involved. It would at least steal some headlines from the Yankees for a few days. Plus, it would be great to watch Dunn try and handle the media crush up there. He might retire on the spot.

My prediction: Anaheim.

Time to Jump on a New Bandwagon!

It's not even June yet, but the Reds just lost three out of four to the Nationals, at home dropping them to 18-30 and I'm officially done with them. They now have the worst record in baseball. This month certainly hasn't gotten any better after the horrendous start. The media is beginning to call for Jerry Narron's head and I can't say that I blame them. He consistently mismanages games, dreams up ridiculous lineups and fields a piss poor defensive team on a nightly basis. There's absolutely no signs of righting this ship.

What I'm getting at is this: it's time for me to find another team to root for. I love baseball too much to just give it up for the rest of the season. Now, I'm open to all options if anyone has a compelling reason why I should root for their team, but here's the way I see it:

No Way, No How
Cubs - I'd rather take up knitting and stab myself wit the needles in my temples

Yankees - Only if Steinbrenner paid me $17 million/year.

Red Sox - Maybe after they offered me $17 million to prove they're just as good as the Yankees.

Indians - Even if I could set the in-state rivalry aside, I'm not going to cheer for a red-faced grinning mascot with a feather in his headband.

Astros - Not even if they brought back the retro unis and issued a public statement stating "Roger Clemens is a bitch."

Your Team Sucks
Pirates - I wrote a whole season preview on these guys, have watched them play several times and still couldn't name you a single starting pitcher. No thanks.

Rangers - If it weren't for their off day yesterday they'd have had a chance to tie the Reds for worst record in baseball. At least they have Eric Gagne.

Royals - Shouldn't they have been relegated years ago?

Nationals - While I do support our nation, I'm just going to have to wait and see how this whole grievance thing plays out. I don't want to get pulled into the middle of a nasty court battle.

Rockies - Jeeze, it's already Todd Helton trade rumor season? Time's just slipping away.

Devil Rays - Tampa is playing games in minor league parks now. Must be good for team morale.

Your Barry Bonds Sucks
Giants - Ummm no. The Bonds debacle and easy, breezy, beautiful Barry Zito? Moving on...

Just Fell Short
Brewers - Feel good story, plus who doesn't like people with Wisconsin accents, or cheese, or running sausages. Really, I could root for this team in the playoffs, but they just have too many games against Cincinnati and I couldn't even pretend.

Blue Jays and Orioles - I couldn't figure out a "bird watching" joke for this spot that didn't make me want to throw away my keyboard, so make up your own. Anyway, this should be a fun race for third in the division, yet again, and that's not really worth cheering for.

White Sox - I have no intention to indulge my blog cohort and actually follow his team instead of asking him how many homers Aaron Rowand has for the Sox this year. I bet he hits a hundred.

Diamondbacks - I like their young talent, but I don't think anybody believes they'll pass the three teams ahead of them. Plus, their stadium has air conditioning which is kind of a turn-off. I like my stadiums like my women: hot, sweaty and open-air.

Mariners - Ichiro and Felix, right? That's all I know. Apparently the Pacific Northwest has shut off all baseball transmissions to the Midwest. I have yet to see them play and we all know that Bristol is pretty far away from Seattle so I'm not holding my breath for highlights. It would be virtually impossible for me to follow this team.

Twins - Just not their year. The pitching staff isn't there (single tear for Liriano), and Torii Hunter is playing his butt off to get himself traded after the All-Star break and paid in the off-season. I wonder if he's been talking to Carlos Lee.

The Contenders
Phillies - They've got some exciting young pieces and some wily veterans. That sounds like a fun team to watch. Sadly, no one told Ryan Howard that the season has started and Tom "Rascal Scooter" Gordon is showing his age. Do I think they can make the playoffs? Yeah, I do. Do I think they will? Probably not.

Athletics - Here's another west coast team I know nothing about. I'd love to learn some fun facts about the A's. For all I know, Dan Haren pitches every day and Nick Swisher has formulated his entire persona with the expressed purpose of stealing Jason Giambi's former life.

Padres - I feel like they have some good karma, lots of talent, and of course Greg Maddux pitching complete games against the Reds. How can it go wrong? My only concern is that all the drama of this ongoing immigration debate might get to them, being so close to the border. After all, their offense would be in trouble if Adrian Gonzalez got deported.

Tigers - Last year's feel-good story of the playoffs, until they somehow completely fell apart in the Series. I like Magglio Ordonez and Sean Casey will always hold a special place in my heart. Don't judge me. An added bonus with this choice is that it would really tweak Trout if I was writing about the Tigers for the rest of the season. I think he might have a breakdown if they made the playoffs and the Sox were on the outside looking in. That would make it all worth it.

Braves - Advantage: on TBS all the time so I could actually watch games. Disadvantage: personal history. That's right, I have a grudge against the Braves. When I was in my formative years of little league (6th grade All-Star baby!) I played for the Phillies and was damned proud of it. The same season my brother played for the Braves thus establishing some loosely formed allegiances. Well, that just so happened to be 1993 when they met in the NLCS. We were a house divided. Of course, the Braves won, and I haven't forgiven them since. And I still have a hard time whenever I see John Kruk. Okay, I feel better.

Angels - I like Vlad, I like their pitching staff, I couldn't tell you if Garret Anderson is still playing or not. Yet another west coast team who ends their games at 1am. Of course, there's always Disneyland!

Dodgers - My pick to win the West, they're looking pretty good so far. The problem: they have some douchebags. Could I really convince myself to root for Nomar? Maybe. Jeff Kent though? Not a chance. Just look at that moustache. I'm pretty sure even Kent's teammates want to see him strike out.

So there you have it. I really don't know who to pick. I'm leaning towards the Tigers, but I do hate the notion of picking an AL team. Maybe I'll go with the Braves and try to convince myself that the Reds are going to sign Andruw Jones this offseason. I can't decide. Thoughts?

Knock on Wood...

I really don't want to jinx it, but watch out because Ken Griffey Jr. is having a pretty solid start to his season. Last night he hit his ninth homer of the year and drove in his 27th run. Not bad for an old guy with bionic legs and brittle bones. Maybe we'll see a 100 RBI season out of him again after all. Or maybe a stiff breeze will turn him into a pile of dust as he rounds the bases. Stay tuned.

As for the rest of the game...Arroyo sucked for basically the first time all season. Not sure what 6 ER in 2 IP is all about.... Javy Valentin's homer was absolutely crushed down the right foul line. It had a chance to bounce into the river.... The bullpen has not gone into radioactive meltdown in about three days, shockingly.... I like when they win better than when they lose.

What a fucking month.

Thursday brought the first day of blessed relief in this month of the Reds' schedule after what has been one of the more painful implosions I can remember. Just for reference, here's a quick rundown of May so far:

May 1: Win 11-2 at Houston. Alright, way to start the month off strong. The bats wake up, the bullpen gets to relax a little bit. Bronson finally get some run support. We're right in the race. All is right with the world.

May 2: Lose 1-3 at Houston. Fucking Roy Oswalt. Can we get him put in a different division? Jesus Christ this guy is incredible. Adam Dunn's homer is the only run in the game. Just excruciating to watch, unless you're an Astros fan, I presume.

May 3: Lose 5-7 at Houston. Well, that was certainly exciting. The Redlegs come back to score three in the top of the eight and take a 5-4 lead. This one would have been a big win. I had one commercial break worth of excitement until Mike Stanton (the 40 year old) enters the game in the bottom of the inning and gives up three without recording an out. Way to blow a division series.

May 4: Lose 4-5 vs. Colorado. Both starters kind of sucked in this one, Griffey homered which was encouraging and the game went into extra innings. Enter the incomparable Mike Stanton. Having borrowed a 12 year old girl's arm again, he surrenders the winning run in the 11th. Surely, he's got to snap out of it, right?

May 5: Lose 9-7 vs. Colorado. The Rockies clinch their first road series win of the season. Encouraging. Harang struggles, Coffey sucks, Santos let's it blow wide open. A two run eigth inning rally falls short. The Java Man is found crying into his espresso at his locker after the game. Seriously, we're not better than Colorado?

May 6: Win 9-3 vs. Colorado. Thank you baseball gods. I don't know if I could handle losing three straight at home to the Rockies. Arroyo doesn't pitch his best, but the bats come to life against the venerable Josh Fogg. Josh Hamilton hit two homers in this game. Jeeze, the guy is incredible. My meth dealer has nothing but good things to say about him, too.

May 7: Lose 5-4 vs. Houston. Oh, sweet. Oswalt again. Twice in one week. That's just great. What's that? Yes, I do realize I'm holding a clump of my own hair. Oswalt pitches 7 strong innings, but the Reds are still in the game and take the lead. Ryan Freel goes 0-5 with two strikeouts batting leadoff. That's knowing your role. Ohhh and guess what. The 40 year old noodle arm has another ERA of infinity on the night and the 'Stros come back to win against the bullpen.

May 8: Lose 6-7 vs. Houston. Eric Milton doesn't completely suck, he only mostly sucks but gives the Reds a chance to win the game. Alas, the bullpen surrenders three more runs and Dave Weathers can't even hold to a one run game in the ninth. I think I'm hyperventilating, pass me that brown paper bag, and that bottle of Scotch.

May 9: Lose 2-3 vs. Houston. Woody Williams shuts down the bats giving up 2 through 6.2 and yet another solid performance by Matt Belisle goes wasted. Woody fucking Williams. The bullpen throws out some guys who aren't fat and/or old and somehow they don't give up any runs. Shocking.

May 10: Win 9-5 vs. Houston. Way to "salvage" this four game series. Winning only the final game of a four game home series is like masturbating after some lackluster sex. Sure, you got off, but what the hell were you doing the rest of the time? By the way, Griffey and Dunn are quietly getting hot.

May 11: Lose 0-2 at Los Angeles. This was the game where Randy Wolf decided to strike out 11 in seven innings. Yeah, who saw that one coming? Arroyo pitches well again and fails to get a win. His ERA is UNDER THREE and he only has two wins!! Tragic, really. Note: this begins the west coast road trip where everything got hazy at about the 6th inning when I couldn't keep my eyes open anymore.

May 12: Lose 3-7 at Los Angeles. Brad Penny has big sloping shoulders. He scares me. He also scared the Reds' lineup. The Dodgers threw up a five spot on Lohse in the fifth and that's all it took. This is a frustrating LA lineup. No power, no superstars, just smart hitters who knock in base runners. Well, at least I still like my pick for them to win the West.

May 13: Lose 5-10 at Los Angeles. Happy Mothers' Day! The bullpen gives up five in a tie game going into the eighth. Shockingly, Mike Stanton was only responsible for one of those. Stanton's current ERA, a robust 8.18. Sweep! My apathy has peaked.

May 14: Lose 1-7 at San Diego. As the headlines point out, Maddux pitches his first complete game in two years. Have he and Randy Wolf formed some sort of secret society to conspire against Cincinnati? What is happening? Where am I? Greg Maddux is supposed to be an over-the-hill serviceable pitcher who gives you six innings and then goes and takes a nap.

May 15: Win 2-1 at San Diego. Aaron Harang pitches nine and gives up one run, and the game goes to extra innings. Somehow David Wells goes 8 innings with 1 ER. What the fuck is going on here? .... Give me a minute.... a blood vessel in my brain just burst. Griffey hits a homer in the 12th to push the Reds over the top. Congrats to the bullpen on one game not blown. I feel like we need one of those signs they hang up in factories: "This bullpen has gone __ days without a blown save. Let's keep it that way."

May 16: Lose 2-3 at San Diego. A grand total of five runs scored in this series. Talk about offense! Arroyo went a complete game, eight innings and still lost. One ER and two errors equals three runs for the Padres. For the record, the defense still sucks. I know I haven't mentioned it to this point, so let me reiterate: the defense still sucks balls. Gah.

So, there you have it. The Reds have checked in with a 4-12 record in the month of May dropping themselves to the bottom of the division (10 games back) and close to the worst record in baseball. How quickly it can happen. So, here's my final question. As a fan, is it better for your team to blow the season in May and free up the rest of your summer, or is it more fun to see a competitive team until August/September completely shit the bed? I'm on the fence, myself.

What I Know & Why I'm An Idiot: Round 2

I know that the Reds really can compete for a playoff spot in the Central. They have starting pitching and a pretty solid lineup. They've even been playing better defense this year (or at least Adam Dunn says he's trying harder, and we all know what matters is that you try your best). Plus, they've got the Josh Hamilton Experience just gaining steam and warm fuzzies all over the land.

I'm an idiot because, well they keep fucking losing. And not just losing, blowing winnable games. I occasionally wake up screaming after another nightmare about the bullpen. The falling dream is nothing compared to the "blown four-run lead in the bottom of the 9th" dream. Now, that'll make you wet the bed. I'm also an idiot because I'm putting a whole lot of faith in 36 year old Eddie Guardado coming back from an arm injury to being the closer. I'm not proud of my flawed belief system, but it's all I've got.

I know that the dentist is going to tell me to floss more every time I see him, just like he did today. I also know that he has a bigshot degree, but I'd be nice to see him for more than five minutes per visit.

I'm an idiot because I never take his advice and now I have three brand new cavities waiting to get filled next week. Bring on the Novocaine!

I know that I've become completely apathetic towards this whole Bonds business. It's a foregone conclusion that he's going to break the record now and I couldn't care less. Despite the report Trout mentions below, the media has saturated us with so much talk about it that any ardent follower of the sport knows he did 'roids and knows the record will be tainted. So, I just don't care.

I'm an idiot because... well, because fuck Barry Bonds, that's why. He's a cheater and an asshole and doesn't deserve to break the record. Plus, what kind of worthless SOB do you have to be the most famous player in the game, have your own reality show and still not be able to make anybody like you? Plus, he looks like one of those squeezable dolls where there head blows up and the eyes bugg out. Screw you fat head.

I know that I was really excited for the boxing match Saturday night. Mayweather came off looking like a real piece of garbage beforehand (although I did like him referring to himself as "the 50 Cent of boxing." What's that mean, Floyd? Two hits and then your career is over?). So I was rooting for De La Hoya, even though I had money on Mayweather. We bought the fight and all got together to watch it. I hadn't done that in a long time, and it was fun.

I'm an idiot because the fight was generally pretty boring, just like boxing tends to be today. It went exactly as everybody predicted with Mayweather just being too quick for Oscar. Snooze. Nobody even got hurt in this fight. It was light a couple of heavyweights (in the bad defensive and grabby sort of way). I'm officially done with boxing. At least I won money on Mayweather.

I know that the Kentucky Derby is always one of my favorite days of the year. If you live in KY and can't find a Derby party to go to, you're not looking. We had a grand time, and I made some wagers and drank some beer. And then some more. There's nothing quite like showing up at a partying and hearing "Hey Gage, free keg beer. It was leftover from some frat party." Really? I mean I'm still in my 20s but frat beer? Not that I didn't drink it, of course.

I'm an idiot because I always feel the need to bet more money than I have any business betting on the race. It's really amazing how quickly a trifecta can go to shit. In the blink of an eye, really. Let's just say I had multiple tickets and not one of them had Street Sense on it. Ugh. It's a good thing you can't be addicted to gambling. Whew.

I know that I haven't been posting much lately and I blame that on a number of issues, such as having a "real job" and "responsibilities."

I'm an idiot because I'm really just lazy. I know it's hard to believe, but sometimes I want to just lay on the couch with my pants off watching a Reds' game. Is that so wrong?

"The Reds Are Decidedly Not Terrible": Cincinnati Reds Early Season Review

Last year's collapse by the Reds was a tough one. They were in first place in a decidedly mediocre Wild Card race for what seemed like two months. And then, the dreaded two-week west coast road trip came about. It started August 24th in San Fransisco and ended September 3rd in San Diego. Before that trip I remember thinking "well, if they go .500 on this trip, they'll still be in the race." Of course, they went 2-8 and came home to fresh sheets and no playoff chances. There's nothing like staying up until 1:30 am (and on a weeknight! ....gah, I'm getting old) just to watch your team choke away the season.

Did I really think the Reds had a chance to make some noise in the playoffs? No, not really. But, neither did Cards fans, either, I'd say. Do I think they have a chance this year? Actually, I do. Up until the Wednesday and Thursday games, the pitching staff had been lights-out. Of course, I should have written this post two days ago, before they squashed my argument when the bullpen blew consecutive games to the Astros. That said, the starting pitching has been tough. Bronson Arroyo has a 3.25 ERA through four starts. Sadly, I'm pretty sure he's going to have to join a support group for as well as he's been pitching to still have zero wins. Just bad luck though, really. The real story is the back end of the rotation where Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle have left nothing to be desired. Did you see Lohse's 12 strikeout game the other night? And, against the Cubs even.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't like to worry too much about bullpens or #5 starters. Sure, it's great to have a stud closer, and you really do have to have someone to turn to at the end of the season when you need an out. But, I guess what I'm saying is that these are the sort of things that get sorted out over the course of the year with guys getting called up and sent down, or the well-timed trade. And, I think there's some talent in Louisville for the Reds. Just you wait. Some guy named Johnny Fifteenminutes will record 9 saves in September and all the problems are solved.


In a strange twist of fate, the offense was the big question mark for me coming into the season. And, there's still some issues to sort out. The bad news: David Ross has decided to do his best Jason LaRue impression with 14 K's in his 35 plate appearances. Note to Dave: Adam Dunn - Power = .121 BA. However, the good news is Josh Hamilton (aka Roy Hobbs) has come back from years of drug addiction to be one of the best players (pardon the limited sample size) I've ever seen. He's a smart, strong hitter and his swing makes Adam Dunn look like a windmill by comparison. He's got me so excited, I already pulled my annual fantasy "ill-advised Reds' player pickup." I guess there's always time for two.

Anyway, before the season started, I had the Reds at 3rd of 4th in the division. Right now I'm not ruling out anything. There's just not a really good team in the division. I know, 8-8 isn't winning the pennant, but .500 keeps you in the Wild Card race. If they get a couple of relievers from nowhere and the offense plays the way it should, they could win the division. Not that I'm predicting it or anything.

Yikes! Streak-buster post.

Trout and I both know a thing or two about dry spells, and it's been a week, so it's probably time for another post here. Any day now. But, with any real baseball news still a few weeks away and my complete lack of interest in the NBA (does anybody sit down and watch full games?) it's been hard to find anything worth writing about. So, here's what's on my mind...

Soccer is fun to watch. While the majority of the English-speaking population was watching Duke/UNC last Wednesday, my amigos and I were watching the USA/Mexico friendly. I knew I was excited for this game when they first announced it and I wasn't sure why. It's just a friendly, so it counts for nothing. That is, if you only consider tournaments and trophies to be something. This one was about pride and that got me even more fired up. In what is becoming a (shockingly) regular occurrence, the MNT beat a Mexico team 2-0 full of their top players in a Phoenix stadium with far more fans cheering against the gringos. This one was really fun to watch, particularly the second half after the first goal when Mexico got super aggressive, but the defense was able to hold on. Now's the time to build that fence and really break their spirit.

Soccer is not that different from American sports. See: basically every league in the world. The degree to which money rules the sport is really killing my interest in the end of the season. Manchester United is running away with the EPL and the only actually competitive top league in the world is in Spain where Barcelona could blow their lead, but probably won't. Thank goodness Champions League play starts back up next week.

Should it really be so hard to get opening day tickets? In Cincinnati, opening day is a huge deal. They have a parade, celebrate the clubs history, and occasionally even win. Sadly I've only been once (2005) and it's one of my favorite sports memories. We got drunk, we ate Skyline, and the Redlegs hit walk off homers off the incomparable Braden Looper to win the ball game. The problem is, it's so hard to get tickets that you have to a) buy season tickets, b) camp out all night or c) get really lucky if you don't want to pay a scalper. Tickets are going to go on sale pretty soon, and we're gonna do what we can this year, but jeez, couldn't it be easier? I just want to go to a baseball game.

Martyballs, castrated. There's gonna be a lot written about Schottenheimer getting fired, but at the end of the day it's really fucking hard to win 14 games in the NFL. I'll put good money down that they don't win that many next year. I hope this doesn't dampen Marty and LT's love affair.

Here Come Those Redlegs!

It's a two-pronged attack today with some hard-hitting Reds coverage. You know you've been itching for it. (Super Bowl schmuper bowl, it's almost time for pitchers and catchers!) Let's start off with a little something I'd like to take complete credit for. As many of you had noticed from the sidebar, I'd been praying to the ghosts of Pete Rose's reputation for Aaron Harang to get signed to a long term contract. And, by the grace of the baseball gods today it came true. Harang gets $36.5 million over four years with an option for the fifth. By all real-world standards this is a ridiculous sum of money, but when you recall your Gil Meches of the world this is a great deal for the Reds and I couldn't be happier. The rotation has some promise for the future now, for the first time in a long time (don't give me Eric Milton).

Now, onto my second point. Thanks to a Rob Neyer (who Trout seems to hate now, but I still hold no particular animosity for) article, I started thinking about VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). To the best of my knowledge (and I'm mostly clueless) VORP represents the percentage better than an average replacement a player is. By all indications "better" and "value" are determined by someone in a studio apartment with MLB extra innings. Anyway, if you check out those stats, you'll notice that there was one Reds batter in the top 100 last season. That was Rich Aurilia and, oh yeah, he's long gone. Dunner was 104 (I guess his K's are what hurts him) and Dave Ross was 109 despite splitting time with LaRue who would have been cut loose two years ago. Brandon Phillips came in right behind him at 110. This is what really scares me about this team in '07. Their only chance to be truly competitive is one of two ways: 1) Harang and Arroyo (12th and 6th pitching VORP, respectively) don't fall off and some pitching fills in behind them, or 2) the batters way outperform the projected. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. Look for your favorite players and see where they rank.

MLB Tries To Be Cool; Winds Up Disturbing

Maybe I'm late to the party on this, and pardon me because I'm no UniWatch, but look at this new bullshit MLB series of hats that are being sold this year. I own several New Era caps. They are my favorite hats, especially next to my Bengals cap that has never quite fit right (thanks, Reebok). I've grown tolerant of the pink and orange hats for every team. I can even look past a camouflage hat, begrudgingly, at this point. But, this is off-the-charts fucking lunacy. If I see someone wearing this at a Reds game this year I may have to hurl myself off the upper deck. I'm at a loss. What is it supposed to be? Someone threw a wet team logo against the wall and it's dripping down? Hard to imagine that scenario. A crooked logo is bleeding? Some morbid fantasy elements there, guys. Is it really necessary to tarnish every traditional element of the game? Does Bud Selig know these hats exist? I'll tell you what, if I see a picture of Commissioner Skeletor wearing one of these, I'll go out and buy the whole set. Ugh. The fucktard that dreamed this up should maybe watch a baseball game occasionally.

Give Us Your Leftovers

Lest Trout not be the only one on this blog talking about baseball, I'm back with some more Reds coverage. I really made an effort to dig in to the financials of the club way back before the winter meetings, and then everything went apeshit and I was left in a state of shock. I thought the Reds might have $10 million or so this year to spend on one or multiple players. Maybe I thought that much money can get one stud free agent. But alas, in today's market that doesn't even get you Gil Meche. What a world we now live in.

With a second long-time member of the Reds front office leaving after being unable to work amicably with GM Wayne Krivsky, you'd think they would need to settle some of the grumbling. Unfortunately all that's left now is the leftovers. That's right; the cold, fatty pieces. Let's take a look at a few free agents the Reds could potentially go after. And by "go after" I mean "take when nobody else wants them."

Barry Zito - Hahahahaha.... just for fun: not only can they not afford him, he would hate the small ballpark and the conservative city. It's hard to date celebrities in the 'Nati.

Jeff Suppan - Well, if the rumors are to be believed, Suppan being wooed by both the Brewers and Pirates (among others) meaning his price tag can't possibly be that high. Suppan is no ace, and do I really want to see the Reds give him $8-9 million/year? Probably not, but It wold really warm my heart to see them actually in the discussion. This seems like the type of player right in their wheelhouse. A veteran who will pitch his share of innings and hasn't shown any signs of being injury prone. At least test the waters.

Jeff Weaver - Ugh. Did you know that Jeff Weaver made over $8 million last year? Don't forget that he was DFA at the end of June. This seems like a move the Reds would make. They seem to have a long history of taking mediocre to bad players from other teams and believing they can "fix" them. Raise your hand if you think a 30 year old Weaver is fixable. Plus, he looks like that guy who hits on your girlfriend even though he knows you're standing right there. Pass.

Preson Wilson - He's done enough to utterly confound me in fantasy leagues that he might as well do the same to my real life favorite team. Somehow, he's only 32 years old (I could have sworn he was at least 35). They need a right handed bat somewhere on the team, and he could platoon. Now, he does play left field where Adam Dunn is going nowhere (particularly when the sun is in his eyes), but I'm sure he could play right some and left when Dunner needs a day off. Plus, I'd say you could get him at a greatly slashed price than his $4 million from last year.

Dan Kolb - Wait, didn't he used to be "Danny"? Or did I just imagine that? I realize it's not 2004, but he did just have 39 saves two years ago. And, he's only 31. For a team that's about to hand the closer role to 37 year old David Weathers "Makes My Bad Knee Act Up" and 40 year old Mike "Get Off My Lawn, You Damn Kids" Stanton, early thirties is sounding pretty good right about now. I like the idea of this one.

Aubrey Huff - He hit .267 last year with 21 dingers. Uninspiring, but not terrible. His upside is that he can play third, first and in the outfield. His downside is that he would be another lefthanded bat and he made a ridiculous amount of money last year ($7m). The sad thing here is that I would probably be very excited and send out some emails with the subject line "Aubrey Huff! Hell Yeah!" if we got him, and not even sarcastically. What an offseason.

Jerome Williams, Mike Wood, Chris Reitsma - Some occasionally shaky but cheapish bullpen help that isn't over the hill might be nice to get. Reitsma would be welcomed back by fans who remember trading him but can't remember who Jim Bowden got in return (aka me). Side note: how come nobody mentioned the fact that Washington neglected to trade Soriano last year for prospects? Now he's gone and you've got nothing to show for it. Way to do dickweed. Sorry for the name calling but Old Leatherpants always gets to me.

Alex Gomez, Damon Hollins, Aaron Boone - Similarly some reasonably priced bats that could fill spots on the bench and start occasionally. I think Boone would be welcomed back as well. His pappy was a crummy manager, but nobody held that against him. Plus, when healthy, he was about as solid as it got with the glove. Can you say "late inning replacement," Edwin?

I don't know what else to say except that things are a little bleak. Luckily the Enquirer online had this picture of Reds' owner Bob Castellini today and I realized why I liked it so much. He looks exactly how Santa would look if you shaved him! He won't bring you Barry Zito, but he might get you that new bike. Enjoy!

Come On In, Relax. It's Only Cincinnati

Talk about making a spash on the free agent market. Alfonso Soriano be damned! The Redlegs just announced the pickup of two marquee names out of this year's free agent class: Alex Gonzalez and Mike Stanton. Now this is exactly the kind of move that we have grown to expect in the 'Nati. So, fellas, let me be one of the first to welcome you to town.

This is Cincinnati, where we strive not so much to be the Yankees, or even the Cardinals. Think Minnesota Twins. Heck, we even hired our GM from them. Over a decade of lowered expectations should make your stay in the Queen City a pleasant one. Sure, people will call into talk radio shows to complain after miring in fourth place in the division all year, but really their passion will be tempered by realistic expectations. Breakout your new clubhouse slippers and practice your bubble gum and sunflower seed skills. One bit of advice, though: be sure to load up your iPod, I hear Adam Dunn likes to really blast the country music.

Alex, I have to admit I was a little concerned when I read about your pickup. You could easily have been that other Alex Gonzalez. Admittedly, I would like to shake the hand of that guy for how he completely screwed the Cubs and made it look like an accident. But, I'm not sure I want him playing for my team. I have to also confess that I was slightly wary of your less than .300 OBP last season, just me being picky I guess. But those fears were dashed when I was told that you are a fantastic defensive shortstop. Congratulations on your one tool, sir. Surely that is worth the almost $5 million that you will be paid next year. Certainly the Reds could not find a AAA shortshop to not get on base, play solid defense and make the minimum salary. You just might be the final piece to the puzzle.

The final piece, if not for you, Mike Stanton. Checking in at a young 40 years of age (only as old as you feel, right grandpa?) you'll bring that much needed veteran experience and maturity we haven't gotten from Kent Mercker, David Weathers and Chris Hammond in the past few years. Can't get enough good clubhouse guys. And, from what I understand you might just be our opening day closer by default. Way to go champ! Am I worried that you haven't pitched over 80 1/3 innings in your entire career? Of course not. Welcome to the bullpen, help yourself to some geritol and icy-hot. We're stocked up. It's gonna be a big year!

Reds Offseason Primer - Part 1: Cash Money

Look out, suckas. The baseball machine keeps churning. It's time to move on from last year. There might be frost on the bushes, but I'm looking to the future. The future, Gage? That's right, Mr. T, the future. All the way to the year 2007. This past year was a fun one but it's primary worth now is only to help answer the "what went wrong?" questions and to almost daily enrage me that the Cardinals actually won the trophy after 83 wins. Plus, what with all the big name players already out on the FA market, it seems like as good a time as any (read: before my hopes get shot down).

Before I break out the gameplan in the coming days, let's do a little housekeeping and take a look at the payroll situation. There's no real telling what Bob Castellini is going to do here, for sure. He really only started running things right before the season started and all the money was already locked up. However, I'm pretty sure you shouldn't get your hopes up for a $100 million payroll. Looking back, 2004-2006 payrolls were $43 million, $50 million and $60 million, respectively. That's a 16% and a 20% increase over previous years. I've read a couple of educated guesses that the 2007 salary will be around $75 million (25% increase). Not bad, not quite the $200 million that the Yankees will spend though.

Does this mean that they actually have an extra $15 million to spend on bringing in new talent, probably not. The main reason being that players have escalated salaries and will be making more this year than last. While we're here let's not neglect to mention the dead weight. Eric Milton will make a hefty $10.5 million this year which looks mighty ugly next to Ken Griffey Jr.'s $12.5 million (and yes, Griffey is officially dead weight). Throw onto that Adam Dunn's $10.5 million (approximately $50,000 per strikeout) and you're already pushing half the team's salary. I'm starting to think that the primary reason baseball is so fucked up is these guaranteed salaries. A mid-level team like the Reds just can't afford to take a chance on an aging star and run the risk of sabotaging your payroll for years to come.

By now you're sitting there thinking "okay Gage, I see the numbers, but what's it all mean?" As well you should be. What it means is that the Reds just like any other team have some holes to fill and while Wayne Krivsky got a couple of steals last year (Phillips, Ross) he did manage to trade away a .300 hitting shortstop who fit nicely into the salary structure. But, I digress. I guess what I'm trying to say here is that it's going to cost some money to plug the multiple holes, and when it comes down to it the Reds just can't afford to put all of their eggs in one basket. I believe I read one report that said Soriano was looking for $17 million/yr. That's just an inconcievably large number for this organization that immediately prices them out of the bidding. In the end we're probably looking at 3-4 midrange role players much like what happened last year. The Scott Hatteburg and Rich Aurilia experiments were a success and Krivsky will try to duplicate those results.

The one wild card: Castellini. He has in one year brought a fresh new attitude to the ownership, openly stating (with no caveats, mind you) that he wants to win and that winning is his top priority. Concievably this is all just talk and the payroll will be right where we expected it. But, this will be Castellini's first real off-season and he may want to make a splash. I could see him bumping the payroll up by $5-10 million and landing that one big free agent. For the record, this is all just speculation and there have been no rumors to that effect. But, it's not even the winter meetings yet, so I'm pretty sure Buster Olney is just making up rumors now to keep himself busy. Just remember you read it here first.

Next installment: Offseason Priorities

Brennaman, Brennaman & Brantley

No, it's not a high-powered law firm, it's the new Reds radio announcing crew. "Sources" have leaked that Jeff Brantley will be joining the announcing team next year hoping to provide some actual baseball knowledge to the Brennaman squared team. Of course, we all know that Brantley learned everything he knows from that ladies' man Harold Reynolds, add that to any Steve Lyons that may have rubbed off on Thom Brennaman and we've got quite a crew. Throw Nuxie in to the equation for a few games a year and you've got a party. Only one thing bothers me. This picture of Brantley to the right. He has that same look in every single picture ever taken. I'm not entirely sure how to describe it, my best shot would be "vaguely nefarious, yet utterly confounded". However, if that translates to the booth it could replace Nuxie's "formerly knowledgable, yet utterly incontinent"presence nicely (for the record I love Nuxhall, he's just over the hill). So, let me be the first to congratulate you, Jeff. Bring your lifetime 3.86 ERA to the ballpark every day, convince Marty to call you a "gamer" and maybe you can talk to Eric Milton for us.

Avoiding Work With Gage - 9/29

- Big news of the day: Pedro Martinez is out until next season. Well goddamn. I generally loathe New York teams with gigantic payrolls but this is dissapointing on a few levels. First, I've always been an NL guy and it just blows nuts that now there's not one single team worth a damn out there. Can we get commissioner Skeletor to just call off the NL playoffs all together? Plus, love him or hate him, Pedro is both really good and really entertaining. There's only a select few players who actually give good quote instead of "it was a hard fought game and I'm just proud to be a part of it."

- I just realized while typing that last paragraph that I have no team to root for in the playoffs. Jeeze, maybe I'll get on the A's bandwagon. I like the fact that I don't know enough about them to hate them.

- I think I believe TO's story. Almost.

- For those of you not paying attention, which should be most of you, the Reds are still only 2.5 games out of the NL central. There is no way that they win the thing but this is so typical of a really bizarre season. Mathematical elimination probably won't happen until the last day or two of the year thus keeping me hanging by a thread for an entire summer. Of course, if there was some miracle and they did get in I would probably have a stroke. Not sure which way to root.

- I'm starting to feel pretty good about the Reds chances next year. Harang and Arroyo are solid and inning eaters. Milton seems to give them a QS two-thirds of the time and Bailey coming up in June and be a complete stud seems more likely than not. Obviously the bullpen is still a nightmare, but when they have to pitch 4-5 innings a game that will happen. Grrrr I shouldn't even be saying this. Jinx jinx jinx.

- Two big football games this weekend. First, Purdue @ Notre Dame. God I would love to win this one. There's nothing quite like seeing the looks of dissapointment on ND fans faces. A group that consists of east-coast rich kids, catholics and bandwagon jerkoffs who don't know any better. Look, nobody thinks the Boilers (4-0, by the way) can compete. And they almost certainly have inferior talent, but there are two things in their favor:
1) The "nobody saw it coming" game. Pundits talked all preseason about how tough the Irish's September schedule was while always managing to forget to mention Purdue. We all know these players watch SportsCenter (lord knows they don't study) and don't like being treated like patsies. This might be their biggest game of the season.
2) The "letdown game." The Irish know they shouldn't have won that game last week. MSU decided to give it away and Christmas came early to South Bend. It hardly seems possible that they are going to be able to get completely hyped for this game.
That said, before the 2004 game (one of my favorite games ever) the Boilermakers hadn't won in South Bend in something like 30 years. Not an easy place to play.

- Then there's the Patriots @ Bengals game. Frankly, this one makes me real nervous. The Patriots are still the kind of team whow knows how to get enough done during the season to make the playoffs. And with the Bengals coming off a bigtime road victory last week they could come in and steal one. I'm not sure if Palmer was trying to lull the Steelers into a false sense of security with the 10 sacks and multiple fumbles last week, but I don't know if that's the best strategy for winning games. Oh yeah and SI put them on the cover. Fuckwads. I still like the Bengals to win, but I'd guess the Pats have a good chance of covering.

- Finally, I will be present at the Bengals game again this week, and I would like to solicit comments to yell at the the New England players. I could be really vile towards Corey Dillon, but I'd like to avoid the jerk line if at all possible. It would be nice to be humorous so that the people around me don't get upset. So, I beg of yee all five regular readers, suggest any outbursts in the comments section. Together we might just have an impact on the game.

Mr. Red: Bringing Sexy Back

Way to go Mr. Red! Reports are stating that you've got a new look (same as the old look la la la). That's right Cincinnati, Mr. Red is bringing back the moustache. And I, for one, am wholeheartedly in favor of it. We all know the strength that lies in the hairlip. From moustache rides to NFL playoff runs. Just look at that diving catch. Apparently this is all part of the Reds' "Power of Tradition" plan. While that's the least catchy promotion name ever, I'm excited for what it means. Can we get some umpires wearing ties? Will there be a dress code for fans in attendance? Will players go back to working like endentured servants? Can we please get some sleeves on the uniforms? That aside, here's to you, Mr. Red(leg). Surely you'll be pulling in some sweet, sweet poon with your new 'stache. Strippers will love you, and you'll get less confused looks when cranking Def Leppard in your el Camino. I truly can't thank you enough for bringing the sexy back to Cincinnati.