"The Reds Are Decidedly Not Terrible": Cincinnati Reds Early Season Review

Last year's collapse by the Reds was a tough one. They were in first place in a decidedly mediocre Wild Card race for what seemed like two months. And then, the dreaded two-week west coast road trip came about. It started August 24th in San Fransisco and ended September 3rd in San Diego. Before that trip I remember thinking "well, if they go .500 on this trip, they'll still be in the race." Of course, they went 2-8 and came home to fresh sheets and no playoff chances. There's nothing like staying up until 1:30 am (and on a weeknight! ....gah, I'm getting old) just to watch your team choke away the season.

Did I really think the Reds had a chance to make some noise in the playoffs? No, not really. But, neither did Cards fans, either, I'd say. Do I think they have a chance this year? Actually, I do. Up until the Wednesday and Thursday games, the pitching staff had been lights-out. Of course, I should have written this post two days ago, before they squashed my argument when the bullpen blew consecutive games to the Astros. That said, the starting pitching has been tough. Bronson Arroyo has a 3.25 ERA through four starts. Sadly, I'm pretty sure he's going to have to join a support group for as well as he's been pitching to still have zero wins. Just bad luck though, really. The real story is the back end of the rotation where Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle have left nothing to be desired. Did you see Lohse's 12 strikeout game the other night? And, against the Cubs even.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't like to worry too much about bullpens or #5 starters. Sure, it's great to have a stud closer, and you really do have to have someone to turn to at the end of the season when you need an out. But, I guess what I'm saying is that these are the sort of things that get sorted out over the course of the year with guys getting called up and sent down, or the well-timed trade. And, I think there's some talent in Louisville for the Reds. Just you wait. Some guy named Johnny Fifteenminutes will record 9 saves in September and all the problems are solved.


In a strange twist of fate, the offense was the big question mark for me coming into the season. And, there's still some issues to sort out. The bad news: David Ross has decided to do his best Jason LaRue impression with 14 K's in his 35 plate appearances. Note to Dave: Adam Dunn - Power = .121 BA. However, the good news is Josh Hamilton (aka Roy Hobbs) has come back from years of drug addiction to be one of the best players (pardon the limited sample size) I've ever seen. He's a smart, strong hitter and his swing makes Adam Dunn look like a windmill by comparison. He's got me so excited, I already pulled my annual fantasy "ill-advised Reds' player pickup." I guess there's always time for two.

Anyway, before the season started, I had the Reds at 3rd of 4th in the division. Right now I'm not ruling out anything. There's just not a really good team in the division. I know, 8-8 isn't winning the pennant, but .500 keeps you in the Wild Card race. If they get a couple of relievers from nowhere and the offense plays the way it should, they could win the division. Not that I'm predicting it or anything.

"Can We Tell You About Freddy Sanchez Again?": 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates Season Preview

I really don't remember the Pirates ever being good. Apparently, though, they actually were good once upon a time. They actually won the NL East three straight years, 1990-1992. Coincidentally (or not), 1993 was the first year Barry Bonds played out on the west coast. Since then, the Pirates have been perennial bottom dwellers of the now NL Central, finishing in second place only once, while finishing in the bottom two teams a whopping seven times. Well, at least they have the Steelers. My own personal enmity with playing the Pirates manifests itself mostly in the guise of George Grande. For those of you not regular FSN Ohio viewers, Grande insists not only on saying ridiculous bullshit, and then repeating it over and over. When the Reds play the Pirates, Grande repeatedly refers to them as the "Buck-O's". Get it? Pirates -> Buccaneers -> Bucks -> Buck-O's (cue sarcastic laugh). It's as if he refuses to even say the actual team name, or he is convinced that he is utterly hilarious. This is infuriating to me and makes me dread Pittsburgh games.

I'm actually watching the Reds/Buck-O's game as I type this and trying to feel some empathy for everyone in the sub-freezing temperatures. It sucks out there. I was there Wednesday night and it was fucking snowing. The Pirates aren't really instilling any confidence in me. I don't get this lineup. Is anybody supposed to drive in runs? I like Jason Bay despite his looking like a 12 year old, but I'm not completely sold on Freddy Sanchez. Sure he won the batting title last year, hitting .344, but his OBP was only .378 and he only walked 31 times and only stole 3 bases. Not exactly your prototypical leadoff hitter*. As a point of reference, Adam Dunn hit only .264 last year but his OBP was .365 and he did have those 40 HR to soften the blow.

With all due respec to Zach Duke, the pitching staff is crummy too. I don't have the energy to go into why, I think you know why. They don't have good players. Get over it. So, without anything more to say about this team, I'm picking them to finish last in the division in 2007.

*This thought was inspired by Chris Welsch on the FSN broadcast, who is far less loathesome than George Grande

"Hey, Did You Hear We Won The World Series?": 2007 St. Louis Cardinals Cardinals Season Preview

Oh Dear God! The Cardinals started the season 0-3. Bring out the brooms, I'm calling for the season oh-fer. I'm pretty sure 162 consecutive losses would be a record for a team coming off a World Championship. Remember, you heard it here first..... What's that? The Cards have already won a game since getting swept to open the series? Well shit, there goes my whole post. (Okay, Gage, think for a minute how to spin this.... annnnd I've got it). Exactly. This just proves my point. It's still early in the season to get upset over one game or one series, and thus not too late for a season preview. It's only too late for me to predict zero-game winners, and of course I would never do that.

That paragraph sucks. Sorry. Moving on...

I have a hard time mustering up emotions towards the Cardinals. I know they're good and they constantly beat up on the Reds, but I don't hate them. Pujols is the best player in the league, but doesn't seem like an asshole. I've never even heard a Chris Carpenter quote. Plus, I've got this whole "enemy's enemy is my friend" complex in reference to the Cubs. Apparently the two teams are hated rivals. There's no reported evidence of Cards on Cubs fan violence, or vice versa, but I'll take their words for it. What I do know is that I personally hate the Cubs (and by extension their fan base in general) so I always appreciate when the Cardinals demoralize them.

But, I just don't know what kind of job they'll do this year at that one. The year after winning a World Series is always an awkward one. Just ask the 2006 White Sox. They lost Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver (who admittedly shouldn't even be on on a MLB roster). Those first two guys combined for 26 wins last year. That's a lot to give up. Interestingly, they both went to NL Central teams. If either has a big year it could really come back to bite St. Louis on the ass. But, I guess the bigger question is: who's left? Well, besides Carpenter there's Kip Wells, who I think is better than his reputation. I mean, he's not terrible but nobody seems to want him very badly. Not sure he's a #2 though. Behind him I see some cause for concern.
Both Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper just got their first career starts. Looper is a career reliever with a career 103 saves (and one glorious blown save on opening day 2005 in the 'Nati). When was the last time you heard about a reliever successfully moving to starter late in a career? Nobody comes to my mind.

So, Chris Carpenter and his merry band of rejects are hoping that the lineup can score some runs. But, where is it going to come from? Pujols, of course. And, Rolen probably. This is where I'd like to claim that you can't win with Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein up the middle but of course that would be silly (see Anaheim). But, really there's not much here to work with. When it comes down to it, this team doesn't have enough studs to get over the hump again. I'm saying they finish 3rd in the division.

"Ben Sheets is Finally Really Good, Maybe": Milwaukee Brewers 2007 Season Preview

One game does not an ace make, but apparently Ben Sheets is the shit. Assuming this is true, if he can pitch like he did in 2002, he might just win 17 to 20 games. This bodes well for all those folks who made the Brewers the en vogue pick to win the division this year. This got me thinking: "why?" Deep, I know. Well, the first thing that jumps out at me from their depth chart is a certain degree of veteran depth all over the field. If, say, Rickie Weeks or Corey Hart doesn't pan out you've got Craig Counsell, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix on the bench. Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking to win a world series with Those three guys as my anchors, but they are certainly good hole-pluggers in a loooong baseball season. Of course, I can't help but notice that the starters on this team aren't really going to blow any wind up your skirt (assuming you want wind blown up your skirt). Bill Hall did hit 35 HR last year, but they traded away Carlos Lee and now don't appear to have anybody in the everyday lineup who can even sniff hitting .300. Doesn't every team need at least one guy who gets on base regularly? Maybe Rickie Weeks keeps getting hits .300 and scores 100 runs, and maybe Prince Fielder and Bill Hall both break the 30 HR barrier, but I'm not sure how confident I am that any of those things happen. That said, far be it for me to criticize this young talent. They should certainly be fun to watch.

Heading to the mound is a slightly different story. Sheets is nasty, but has shown to be injury prone the past two years. Chris Capuano is basically a just-above-average type pitcher. And, of course there's Jeff Suppan who parlayed a World Series victory into a $42 million contract for a career 4.61 ERA pitcher. Congratulations, Jeff, you just hit the lottery. Which raises a big question for a few teams this year: what do you expect out of your wildly overpriced aging free-agent pitcher? It's a total crapshoot when you look at guys like Suppan, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly and Jason Schmidt. However, resting on their laurels, trying not to get hurt and coasting through the season appears like the most likely option. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seemed like every one of these contracts made most baseball fans who are paying attention look like they just sucked the juice out of a lemon. I hope I'm wrong, because there's nothing more disheartening than seeing a highly-paid athlete taking plays/games/seasons off. But, what Suppan brings to the table remains to be seen. Maybe we'll get some indication tonight in his first start.

This Brewers team is full of questions with a young lineup and a pitching staff that could really go any number of ways. I think this is why people are picking them so often. Every writer wants to be the guy who says "See? I knew Bill Hall would hit 40 homers this year. I'm a genius and you're an idiot." Thus, I'm not picking them. I'm going to say that they'll stay in the Wild Card chase until the last week of the season but eventually fall short of the playoffs. Still, lots of hope for the future with this team.

"Tell Roger We'll Pay Him Whatever He Wants": 2007 Houston Astronomicals Season Preview

As I write this, Houston is playing Pittsburgh in their second game of the season. What that means is that I'm running dreadfully late on my season previews. Fortunately for all concerned, it really doesn't matter. I do have the advantage of telling you that apparently Brad Lidge still sucks and blows saves. Okay, maybe he doesn't completely suck, but you have to think the Astros' fans hold their collective breath whenever he comes into the game. Of course the Astros are far from the only team in the league with what I'm going to call the "Armando Benitez Effect" (n) - a sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach when your favorite team's closer du jour enters the game and you just know he's due to melt down at any moment. Other players inducing this ailment include: David Weathers, Ryan Dempster, Fransisco Cordero, Jason Isringhausen and Huston Street. If you like, take a gander at last year's blown save leaders. The weird thing about this discussion is that I don't necessarily think you NEED a good closer to win. Last year the Cardinals only got one save in the World Series and that came from Adam Wainright who has three regular-season saves in his entire career! The White Sox had Bobby Jenks in '05 who came out of nowhere and the Red Sox revived Keith Foulke for one solid season the year before.

As for the rest of the 'Stros, I just can't see how their management expects them to be any better than last year when they just barely finished above even-money at 82-80. You have to love Berkman and Carlos Lee, but Adam Everett and Morgan Ensburg hit a whopping .239 and .235 last season, respectively. Roy Oswalt could potentially win the Cy Young, but there's no real number two unless you're getting fired up about 40 year old Woody Williams. What this all points to is another July run at winning the Roger Clemens lottery. But, he keeps getting older and the Astros are going to have to be in the hunt when Rocket season rolls around. They better not get off to a slow start or this season could turn into the Hunt for Red October before they know it.

None of this is to take away from my favorite thing all-time about the Astros, the retro uniforms. I can still remember somehow lucking into lower-deck (ahhh the "blue seats" in Riverfront) Reds/Astros tickets as a kid while they were still wearing this ridiculous garb. You have to think they're due a good 5-10 wins on MLB throwback days every year just by distracting their opponents. Of course, I have no proof of this. Somebody put the Hardball Times on this one.

At the end of the year with this team, I think it comes down to what I said earlier. They just aren't any better. What about this team makes you think they will win more games than they did before? Yes, the NL Central is weak, but it was last year too. These guys will tease you occasionally, but end up middle of the pack in the division this year. And I'm not just saying that because they're 0-1.

"Was 2005 a Fluke? The Pundits Seem to Think So": Chicago White Sox 2007 Season Preview

Well I don't. None of the ESPN.com prognosticators have the ChiSox finishing above 3rd in the division. The PECOTA projection for the ChiSox has them finishing with 72 wins, 9 games below .500. Everyone in the blogger world is squawking about the idiocy of having Podsednik and Erstad at the top of the lineup. Seemingly it's all gloom and doom on the South Side. Well, fuck that.

I'm choosing to be cautiously optimistic this year. Maybe that'll work out better than the unbridled optimism I had last year. Yes, Podsednik kinda sucked last year, both in left and at the plate. But I tend to agree with Foul Balls' guarded optimism on the Podsednik front; really all I want from him is to be smarter about stealing bases and not look lost in left field. I think this is certainly doable. He doesn't have to be Jose Reyes at the plate for the Sox to win, he just needs to get his head right.

No, I don't agree with starting Erstad instead of Brian Anderson in center, either from a defensive or offensive perspective. I think BA was unjustly relegated to Ozzie's doghouse, and it's continued on into this season. But I think Erstad will be a passable defender. I just hope he doesn't sabotage this team because he's still pissed that AJ gamed the umpires in the 2005 ALCS (remember that, B.O.B.? What a freaking game...)

Besides, offense is not where this team needs to worry. I'm not saying the 2007 squad will equal the production of last year's team, but the production will be there: Thome, Konerko, Dye, Crede, and the rest of the crew will produce runs no matter if Pods and Erstad sport OBPs in the .330 range. The World Series champs scored 127 less runs and won 9 more games than the 2006 playoff-less vintage.

The problem is that the 2006 pitching staff gave up 149 more runs than the 2005 staff. Garland's ERA jumped a full run from 3.50 to 4.51. Contreras's jumped from 3.61 to 4.27. Worst of all by far, Buehrle's jumped from 3.12 to an astronomical 4.99. I don't have to tell you that this year is Buehrle's walk year and his affinity for the Cardinals has been swirling around the rumor mill for years now. Now, I don't put a whole lot of stock in guys putting up career years in their contract years (although it'd be nice, considering Jermaine Dye is in his walk year too), but I do put some stock in a career 3.83 ERA pitcher being able to post an ERA a hell of a lot closer to 4. I haven't seen him pitch this Spring, but the pessimists over at SSS see some reason for optimism. And if Garland and Contreras can pull their heads out of their asses and do the same, the Sox are in business even if Vazquez and Danks post mediocre 4.50-5 ERAs. Do your magic, Coop.

I'm not saying a return to the Series is in store, but I do think the Sox are flying under the radar again this year. Which is right where they were in 2005. They've certainly got enough talent to put together a playoff run in a division which, I think, is a bit weaker than people admit anymore. I'm gonna miss watching this 95-win, playoff-bound club with Hawk and DJ this year... after thirteen years of getting to see this team everyday, it's just not going to be the same following them from RedSoxNationLand.

"Remember How Josh Beckett Used to be Good?": Boston Red Sox 2007 Season Preview

Yup, it was way back in 2005 when he wore that Marlins uniform. As much as people have been talking about Matsuzaka's US debut and the effects of Papelbon's move back into the pen, I think the key to this pitching staff may be Beckett. On a staff with an aging Schilling, a rookie Matsuzaka, a knuckleballer Wakefield, and a converted reliever Tavarez, I think Beckett needs to go out and give the Sox 20-25 quality starts and a sub-4.50 ERA this year to anchor the rotation.

Will he bounce back from a 2006 ERA north of 5? Is he a casualty of moving from the NL East to the AL East? Did he choke in the Boston sports pressure cooker? His strikeouts were down, his walks were up, and he gave up a ton of homers (he gave up 36 bombs last year, second only in baseball to Carlos Silva's 38--I think it's safe to say the Sox thought they were getting a pitcher slightly better than Carlos Silva from the Marlins). Someone probably knows what was wrong with Beckett, but I don't. Even though I live in Boston, I've kept my head in the sand when it comes to Red Sox coverage.

The bullpen looks a little suspect leading up to Papelbon, and as much as it sounds weird to say, I think the lineup will really benefit from having J.D. Drew in there (not a good deal for the money, maybe, but a good move in terms of offensive production on a fairly weak lineup outside Manny and Papi). I could write more about Manny's and Papi's man-love, the error-prone middle infield, and the wildcards that are Mike Lowell and Coco Crisp, but screw it. Like I said, I think Beckett is the key to this team. He pitches like he's capable of, then the Sox take the division; he sputters, you could see another third place finish.

Besides, this baseball preview thing is limping to a close, and really I'm just excited to watch baseball rather than write about it right now. It's time for the Cardinals to embark on another 83 win World Championship--sit back, relax, and strap it down. Short and sweet ChiSox preview tomorrow, folks.

"Like Mike Tyson, Gary Sheffield Will Eat Your Children if He Has To": Detroit Tigers 2007 Season Preview

I'll give you one simple reason the Tigers are the team to beat in the AL Central and very possibly the whole AL this year: Gary Sheffield. This is a team that made it to the World Series last year, and only improved in the off-season, adding a guy who is so hellbent on proving something to the Yankees, baseball GMs, his mom, you name it, that I wouldn't be surprised if he hits 40 homers and drives in 120. I don't care that he's 38 and coming off a drastically injury-shortened season. Adding Sheffield to a lineup that was already formidable and to a team with a young pitching staff which only seems to be getting better makes for a scary, scary opponent. Kudos to you, Dave Dombrowski. I hate you and your resurgent Tigers.

Here's the deal: everyone and their brother is predicting a drop-off for the 2007 Tigers, pointing mainly to their mediocre second-half record last year and the inevitability of a regression to the mean for the pitching staff. I don't buy either one.

First of all, teams regularly put together wildly disparate first and second half splits. It may just be because I haven't looked hard enough (read: I haven't looked at all), but I haven't seen anything that proves to me that a bad second half one year translates into a bad year the next year. Maybe it's just the skeptic in me, but I doubt there's a significant correlation.

Second, just because the White Sox experienced a pitching staff regression from 2005 to 2006 doesn't mean it's going to happen for the Tigers. People will keep squawking about Kenny Rogers' age, Verlander's injury risk, and all that other junk, but guess what? Every pitching staff has holes, even the ones that look invincible (see also: 2006 White Sox). Sure, Kenny Rogers out until July with blood clots will test the starting rotation, but a playoff-experienced Bonderman is poised for a breakout year, and I think the Tigers staff (if Rogers can come back healthy and effective) can match up favorably with any staff in the majors.

That said, if the Tigers have problems, it'll be with pitching. They are shaping up an awful lot like the 2006 White Sox--coming out of the gate guns-a-blazin' only to finish the regular season the year before, improvement on offense through the addition of a big name slugger (Thome, Sheffield), a pitching staff prone to regression--which is not necessarily a good thing for Tigers fans.


Bottom line is this, though: the Tigers got better with the addition of Sheffield while no other team in the Central made moves to significantly improve. That fact alone should allow Leyland's squad to contend for the division and head to the playoffs for the second straight year. Heady times in Motown indeed. Forget about the Indians (they still haven't sold me--potential doesn't equate to playoffs) and Twins (they're really gonna miss Liriano and Radke), I'm worried about the Tigers.

"We Just Invested $50 Million in Gary Matthews, Jr. What of it?":Los Angeles Angels 2007 Season Preview

Whew. It's a sprint to the finish here as I close out the previews of the AL West with all of 4 days remaining until Opening Day. Come hell or high water, that killer White Sox post is going up April 2.

And come hell or high water, Gary Matthews, Jr. is going to deny that he ever used performance-enhancing drugs. I'm not saying he did or he didn't--in fact, if I had to guess, I'd say he didn't. Hell, if he did, I'd hope he'd put up bigger numbers than he did in his so-called "career year": 19 homers, 79 RBI, and a .313 average. This from a guy who, over 8 major league seasons, is a career .263 hitter with a total of 78 homers and 315 RBIs. To put that in some perspective, Pujols or Ortiz match those numbers in roughly 2 years. Yeah, Matthews plays a good defensive centerfield too, but good defense on a 32-year-old journeyman do not a 5-year, $50 million contract make. Or at least it shouldn't. While Angels fans groan at Matthews' 2007 line of 15 homers, 70 RBI, and a .280 average, they can at least take solace in their other big offseason acquisition, Shea Hillenbrand, who's happy to be in LA. Or not. Ugh. At least one person is happy to have Shea in LA.

Switching gears to the pitching staff, John Lackey is better than I imagined him to be. I guess I'm as guilty as the next guy of ignoring the West Coast. The rest of the staff isn't too shabby either, with Ervin Santana (who is poised for a breakout year--take note, fantasy team owners), Jered Weaver (I see a sophomore slump coming), and he of the tagging-with-the-empty glove Kelvim Escobar (thanks, Kelvim! White Sox fans everywhere send their love).

I'm not even going to say much about Bartolo Colon, because he is done. Cooked (insert fat joke here). If they're smart, the Angels won't count on him for anything besides eating more than his share of the spread in the clubhouse (hey, look, I did make a fat joke about Bartolo Colon! Too fun to resist. I'm so original.) If the rotation can get it to Speier, Shields, and K-Rod, the Angels will win a lot of games. Too bad I already picked the Mariners to win the West. That was probably really dumb. Oh well.

But other than Matthews and Hillenbrand, what else is going on in the Angels' lineup? Well, Garret Anderson is 34, but he might as well be 44 as brittle as he's been the past few years. I always kinda liked Anderson, but his best years are way, way behind him. Casey Kotchman and Howie Kendrick could have breakout years, but that's asking a lot.

Vladi will post his standard year, hitting his 30 homers, driving in 110, and batting over .300, but I'll just never look at Vladi the same after he choked against the ChiSox in the 2005 playoffs.
Vladi looked absolutely lost at the plate in that series. Even if the Angels manage to weasel their way into the playoffs, I just don't foresee them going to the Series--not when you've got the Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, and Tigers to contend with. Sorry, Tom Verducci. It ain't gonna happen, not even with help from the rally monkey, which, really, should be retired already, right? That damn monkey is tied with the thunder sticks, right behind the tomohawk chop, as the most obnoxious crowd activity in baseball. End it already. We need to see more of Clutch and Scoop, mascots whose names remind us how Vladi rearranges his testicles before hacking at a pitch. Ahh, Clutch and Scoop...

"At Least We Have Something to Bitch About Besides Politics": Washington Nationals 2007 Season Preview

Man, I'm starting to think these season previews were a bad idea. What the hell do I know about the Nationals? Not much. I know they have at least three former Reds (Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and the newly acquired Dmitri Young) and the Reds' former GM (Jim Bowden). Also I know that Jim Bowden is a douchebag and likes to wear leather pants and occasionally gets arrested after drunken domestic disputes. Also, I hate him. The Nats (can I call them the Gnats?) picked up Dmitri just a few weeks ago after suddenly realizing that it was the spring and they had no first baseman after Nick Johnson (whose picture says "I will rape your dog") broke his femur. Shouldn't it be somebody's job to give a heads up on that one? Honestly, I always liked Young when he was in Cincinnati. He's a born hitter, and while the past few years have been rocky, I think the folks in the District of Columbia are pretty accustomed to forgiving a little past indiscretion.

Of course, Kearns and Lopez went over to D.C. in a trade that I'd try not to think about. But, in the Reds' blogosphere it's often still often referred to as "the trade" which basically came down swapping two serviceable major leaguers for an pitcher with a bad elbow, a prospect and Royce Clayton (don't get me started on him). The crazy thing was, it almost made sense at the time. Of course, in the long run it turned out to be a complete train-wreck. So, Nationals fans enjoy our guys. You got us this time. Oh, and any more mugshots of Jim Bowden would be greatly appreciated. Plenty of room left on the dartboard.

Got questions about the Gnats rotation? Take a look at the second paragraph of this article in the Washington Post. Apparently Washington is going to banking on Jason Simontacchi to play a large part in their rotation. What?!! He's 33 years old and hasn't pitched in a major league game since a few innings in 2004. And he's hurt. Wow. When do they sign Dave Burba? The "ace" of the rotation is John Patterson who, of course, is coming off an injury last year. But I guess we can hope for a repeat of 2005. That year he started 31 games, had a 3.13 ERA and managed only nine wins. If you're not paying attention, that means the team behind him was crap.

There's just nothing exciting about this team. They have some guy named "Nook" playing center field and a whole bunch of other mediocre talent. I guess the prospect of screaming "Got a frozen rope? Just Nook it!" is fun to me, but I enjoy really terrible jokes, it's part of my charm. Other than that, I'm at a loss. This team sucks. I hope the whole "we have a baseball team, we don't care how shitty they are" thing hasn't worn of in Washington yet, because the Nationals will finish last in the east. Or, I'll eat my hat. Or, some other antiquated saying.

"Here's Hoping We Finish Ahead of the D-Rays": Baltimore Orioles 2007 Season Preview

Here's also hoping we don't see much of these horrible, horrible orange uniforms this season from the O's. Maybe the idea was to draw attention away from the O's mediocre pitching, mediocre lineup, and their destiny to finish, at best, fourth in the AL East. Unfortunately, it probably won't work. As depressing as it must be to be a D-Rays fan, I'd take them over the O's any day.

Here's what O's fans have to look forward to: a continually disgruntled Miguel Tejada; a Corey Patterson who's infinitely more valuable in fantasy lineups than in real-life lineups; 400+ at-bats for both Jay Payton and Kevin Millar, guys who will contribute next to nothing; guys in Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora who will most probably futilely struggle to regain their career year forms (2003 and 2004, respectively); a bullpen that can't possibly live up to their ridiculous contracts (they've committed $41.5 million over the next 3 years to Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford); a rotation consisting of erstwhile Yanks albatross Jaret Wright, oldster Steve Trachsel, youngster wildcards Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera, and a staff "ace" of Erik Bedard; and last, but certainly not least, 50+ games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Yikes.

The bright spots in Baltimore are considerably less numerous: Chris Ray has emerged as a potentially great closer (we all know how fleeting that kind of success can be, though); 23-year-old Nick Markakis came out of nowhere to have a pretty promising rookie effort last year; Brian Roberts may be more fully recovered from elbow surgery this year; Ramon Hernandez just may continue to be a really productive catcher; and Jay Gibbons reminds me of past fantasy baseball victories. Sadly, none of these things will fix a franchise that Peter Angelos has driven into the ground.

The bottom line is that the O's are moving in the wrong direction in the toughest division in baseball (I know Hawk Harrelson and many others will fight me on this, but I still would much rather play in the AL Central than the AL East), particularly when you consider that the Yanks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and D-Rays are all getting better. The O's will be lucky to finish fourth this year. And that's just plain embarrassing. Where, oh where have you gone, Cal Ripken?

"In King Felix We Trust": Seattle Mariners 2007 Season Preview

First it was Randy Johnson jumping ship in 1998. Then Griffey in 2000. Then A-Rod in 2001. And now, six years later, the Mariners have to deal with the deathblow of losing Gil Meche. It must be rough to be a Mariners fan. They're probably all crying into their Starbucks' lattes right now, asking over and over again, "Why, oh why couldn't we have just offered Gil Meche $60 million over 5 years and kept him around? How foolish and cavalier of you, Bill Bavasi."

In all seriousness though, the Mariners should mostly be worried about squandering Ichiro's prime years, and pissing him off with their lackluster play in the process. It probably wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the 33-year-old Ichiro did jump ship after this season. Even though he'll probably keep hitting into old age like Tony Gwynn, he is on the wrong side of 30 and will probably want a ton of money over a lot of years (this should perk up the ears of pretty much only Red Sox and Yankees fans). But I don't really know where that leaves the Mariners. They seem like a team without a plan. Or maybe just a team without a very good plan.

What makes me say such negative things about the Mariners, you ask? Well, partly because I have negative things to say about a lot of teams, my own White Sox included. But also because the Mariners threw a ton of money at Adrian Beltre coming off a career year a couple years ago and have followed that up this off-season by signing veteran projects like Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro.

Vidro, as you might recall, is the guy who forced Soriano into Washington's outfield last year. And now he's slated to DH for the Mariners. Maybe it's just me, but a second baseman whose career offensive year was way back in 2000 when he hit all of 24 homers and drove in 97 (he hit 7 homers each in injury-shortened 2005 and 2006 seasons) doesn't strike me as the greatest use of the DH in the world. Guillen, when he's not injured or making trouble, is a 25 homer 90 RBI guy, which isn't bad, but it's a big gamble.

As suspect as those gambles are, I still think the lineup is pretty decent in a mediocre AL West. I could be making this up, but I don't think either the Angels or the A's--the two horses in the West the past few years--did much to get better in the offseason (I could make fun of Anaheim's--yes, Anaheim, not LA--signing of Gary Matthews, but I'll hold that in abeyance for a bit). Ichiro's gonna get on base all the time, Richie Sexson will hit his 35 homers and strike out 150 times, Raul Ibanez will quietly continue to overachieve (in a career year last year, he hit 33 homers and drove in 123--who knew???), and Kenji Johjima can build on an impressive rookie season. It's a lineup that'll be passable whether or not Vidro and Guillen perform, and a little above average if they do.

Where the Mariners' season will live or die is, I think, in the rotation. How serviceable will Jarrod Washburn be? Will King Felix live up to the hype after a disappointing rookie campaign? (If his fantasy draft ranking is any indication, Yahoo! and ESPN sure think he will). Will Jeff Weaver be the sucky glove-eating Jeff Weaver we all know and love, or will he continue his playoff impersonation of a decent pitcher? What the hell can anyone expect from Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez?

Chances aren't that great, but I think if the Mariners want to sniff the playoffs, this year is the year--2008 and '09 don't look all that promising. So with that, I'm picking the M's to win the AL West and promptly lose in the Divisional playoffs. Go ahead an laugh. They're a dark horse to be sure, but anything can happen out West.

"Let's Go Out There And Make Ben Franklin Proud": 2007 Philadelphia Phillies Season Preview

Yo! Welcome to Philly where we love our teams until they inevitably lose every year. Then we pelt them with profanity.... Okay, I don't know this to actually be the truth. I've never been to Philly, I don't even know anybody from Philly, but I'm doing this preview anyway. Another guy not from Philly who doesn't appear to understand the plight of their fans is Jimmy Rollins. He must have not watched any Philly sports for the past twenty years or so because he claimed during the offseason that the Phillies are the "team to beat". Bold statement. It takes a man who has not been pelted with batteries to say something like that. Somehow a man with absolutely zero post-season at-bats in his career thinks it would be a good idea to run his mouth. The confidence is nice, but he needs back it up. Let's just say they better win the World Series before Rollins makes any Campbells Soup commercials with his mom.

Elsewhere, the questions (stop me if you've heard this) are basically the holes in the lineup and the starting pitching. More specifically, the problem with the Phillies lineup is the Phillies outfield. After they got rid of Abreu they're looking at Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino. Nobody expects Rowand to hit and Victorino had a pitiful .760 OPS last year in his first real season in the bigs. Pat Burrell has the honorable distinction of being one of my "sleeper" late round picks in our fantasy draft last week. Of course ever since then all I've read is how he's complete shit. The Harball Times preview today asserted without question that he only only has "40 good swings a season". Ummm, is that possible? I feel like I need a Bull Durham speech right now. Ugh.

And, don't let me forget to mention Freddy Garcia. That's right, the big fella came over from the Chi Sox after what really was a reasonably good season. 17 wins? How do they let that go? Hopefully it wasn't for the money. For the record, Garcia will make $10 million this year while Eric Milton is making $9 million. Big sigh. Beyond that, I kind of like the Cole Hamels/Brett Myers combo and Jamie Moyer might need a walker to get out to the mound, but he will probably still give you innings (over six per start last year). Plus, I hope he gets on base occasionally. I love the idea of watching a 44 year old pitcher who spent 10 years in the AL run the bases.

Well, there you have it. Another flawed team in the National League. But, they have some young talent and some vets holding it together. Will they hit? Yeah some. Will they get pitching? Yeah, enough. So, I'm taking them to win the division. I just think they've got the tools to sustain winning throughout the season. Maybe Jimmy Rollins won't have to eat his words after all.

"Who is this Masked Man?": 2007 New York Mets Season Preview

First, since this post--like every post--is all about me, let me go ahead and rehash a comment I made in a previous preview. I basically said that the Mets might be the only team in the National League without any gaping holes in their lineup. Well, for the most part it's true. Their four best hitters (in no particular order) are: Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado (.289 BA, 124 HR total). That's nasty, no argument. But, the real question is about the other four guys: Paul LoDuca, Jose Valentin, Shawn Green and Moises Alou. Average age: 36 (aka well past their primes). I guess they're all serviceable but I'm not sure I'm real excited about a lineup with LoDuca hitting 2nd in the order for a full season again. Plus, wasn't Moises Alou supposed to have retired like three years ago?

That argument aside, the guy who's really giving me a brainfuck here is Jose Valentin. Living with Trout on the outskirts of the Chicagoland viewing area I watched my fair share of White Sox games in 2003 & 2004. He batted .237 with 114 K's one year and .216 with 139 K's the following year. Holy shit that's an awful year. I mean, just painful to watch. Seeing Valentin come up to bat in a crucial situation always induced a faint vomit taste in the back of my mouth, and it's not even my team. He had more holes in his swing than I have in my abused liver. It was an absolute train wreck.

So, what happens last year? After an injury-shortened season in LA, Jose comes out last year and hits .271 with a mere 71 strikeouts. 45 points increase in the batting average and a ridiculous drop in strikeouts. And, this is from the age of 34 to 36. Have you ever seen a player improve his play so dramatically at this age? I certainly can't think of anybody. This is unnatural and I'm calling "bullshit." Let's get that Mitchell investigation running 24-hour surveillance on his ass because there's some foul play involved here. I think we can all get on board with this one.

As for this team, two words: shitty pitching. Their starters are shit. Glavine is 41 on Sunday, El Duque claims to be 37 so he's probably at least 40. John Maine was real solid last year, but I'm not quite sure how. And, well, do you want Chan Ho Park in your rotation? I won't even mention you-know-who because there's slim to none chance that a 35 year old comes back from shoulder surgery in under a year. So, my prediction: second place in the division. And I predict that if you bet the over in every Mets' game for the first month of the season you'll make money.

"Wait Till 2010...If We're Around That Long": Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2007 Season Preview

I can't really explain it, but I really sort of like the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Generally I gleefully denounce many things associated with Florida--humidity, the 2000 election, Jeb Bush, Disney World, old people, Spring Break stupidity--but for some reason the Devil Rays, despite their consistent suckiness and their god-awful stadium, attract me.

Perhaps it's their delightfully horrible 3-16 Grapefruit League record that's endearing (It makes me feel not so bad about the White Sox going 8-13!). Perhaps it's Scott Kazmir's boyish visage and my glee at the Mets getting fleeced in trading him away for Victor Zambrano(Victor Zambrano!). Manager Joe Maddon's custom indie-rockish/Rivers Cuomo-esque glasses and his oddly uncomfortable porn-star-like way to watch batting practice (see below) don't hurt either; here's hoping the glasses take the AL East by storm and we see Joe Torre sporting a pair by the All-Star break.

For some reason, the D-Rays are so teflon-coated in my brain that the Delmon Young bat-throwing incident doesn't even bother me that much. Weird. Nick Swisher incites my ire for doing essentially nothing besides sporting odd facial hair and bedding a Playboy model, and Delmon Young gets a free pass for almost braining an umpire. There's definitely something wrong with me.

But hopefully not as much as is wrong with this still fatally flawed D-Rays club. They've got a bunch of nobodies pitching after Kazmir, who's got his own concerns, coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Their bullpen is sure to suck, and their closer is...ummm... Seth McClung? Yikes. Isn't it time for the D-Rays to finally pull the trigger on a trade of some of this young hitting talent for some bodies that can capably throw the ball every five days? Survey says: yes.

The offense has plenty of storylines to get excited about, though, with Rocco Baldelli and Jorge Cantu poised to make comebacks of sorts, Carl Crawford continuing to mature, BJ Upton looking to corral his talent and find a home defensively, Jonny Gomes trying to put together a full season (note to fantasy owners out there: beware Jonny Gomes--do not be fooled into thinking he'll keep a 35 HR pace--I learned this the hard way last year), and Delmon Young looking to build on a solid end-of-the-season call-up. The best storyline might be two guys who came out of nowhere last year to have surprisingly decent seasons: White Sox alum Greg Norton and Mets/Pirates cast-off Ty Wigginton. I know, I'm getting excited about Greg Norton and Ty Wigginton. You don't have to tell me I'm irrational.

Well T-Bay, as much as I love you, you might be lucky to climb out of the cellar this year. Don Zimmer will have that dyspeptic look on his face for the majority of the season. Fortunately for you, though, Baltimore isn't showing much of a desire to win. I foresee your one new fan blogging about 70+ wins and a fourth place finish in the East this year. Baby steps, T-Bay, baby steps.

"Wait, Is This One of the Years Where We Try to Win, Or Not?": 2007 Florida Marlins Season Preview

It must be exhausting to be a Marlins fan. They managed to win the 1997 championship, after five years of existence and immediately sold off the whole damn team. There were a few lean years as the organization and then they got back and won it all again in 2003, only to sell everybody off again. It's not hard to see why they have a hard time maintaining fans, but you have to respect a team that manages to get away with never signing big name free agent and still wining the occasional World Series. You know, as I was debating what to write in this post, I got to thinking about what that roster actually looked like in '97 and how they won. We all remember Gary Sheffield, but who else was there? Let's take a look...

C - Charles Johnson
1B - Jeff Conine
2B - Luis Castillo
SS - Edgar Renteria
3B - Bobby Bonilla
LF - Gary Sheffield
RF - Moises Alou
CF - Cliff Floyd/Devon White

Rotation: Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Livan Hernandez, Alex Fernandez
Closer: Robb Nen

Wow, they certainly managed to get some guys at their peaks. Particularly Kevin Brown whose suddenly developed Scoliosis once he got out of Florida. Plus, Alex Fernandez won 17 games in 1997! Who, you ask? Well, Trout might remember because apparently he won 18 games for the southsiders in 1993. Anyway, he never came close to those numbers again and was soon sipping margaritas in Retirementville. Shit, they even had Nenn closing things out. And lest I not take advantage of mentioning the six-fingered wonder Antonio Alfonseca. Apparently, according to his Wikipedia page (the ultimate source on everything), his nickname back in the Dominican Republic is "El Pulpo" (the Octopus). So, yeah. This was a really solid team (obviously) of some up-and-comers and some players just hitting their peak.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that it seems like the Marlins have decided to use the basic rules of economics to succeed on a budget. Basically, "buy low, sell high" is all you need to know. They buy appreciating assets at then move them when the market is ripe. Contrast that with the Yankees who have gotten burned with the likes of Carl Pavano and the aforementioned Kevin Brown, guys whose stock can only go down.

Of course, the 2007 incarnation of the Marlins is no different. They have two established veterans, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera (a legitimate superstar) and a bunch of young bucks. By the way, before I move on, did you know that Cabrera is only 23? Well, at least he claims to be only 23. The rest of the guys all have a full year under their belts and should be choping at the bit to get this one under way. Plus, I really can't help but love Hanley Ramirez' headshot. He just seems like he's thinking "Nobody will know, but I'm not wearing any pants right now." Past Willis they have this Sanchez kid who threw the no-hitter last year. Yeah, I think this will be a fun team to watch. Maybe even more fun because they appear to have nobody to close out games. Zoinks!

Now, the Marlins will be fun to watch, but where will they finish? Honestly, I think their one huge mistake was getting rid of Joe Girardi. He really pulled the team together and the young guys respected him. Will Fredi Gonzalez get the same out of the players? Who knows. Prediction: the Marlins won't win this division, but I think they'll be in the race for the Wild Card until the very end.

"Wow, So They Haven't Gotten Rid of Chief Wahoo Yet. That's Kind Of Embarrassing": Cleveland Indians 2007 Season Preview

I blame Bud Selig. Sure, there are probably a bunch of other folks more responsible for the perpetuation of Chief Wahoo's "boy do I love scalpin' those whiteys!" toothy grin, but I blame Bud Selig because he's Bud Selig. He's everyone's favorite scapegoat, and not without good reason (way to go on that whole DirecTV deal, Bud!).

I'm not going to dwell on the politics of why it's unconscionable to keep using athletic symbols like Chief Wahoo, Chief Illini, and the Washington Redskins, no matter if the majority of people--even those people portrayed--don't seem to care (there are any number of websites out there that address this). I'll just say that it's akin to using Cletus the slack-jawed yokel to represent the entirety of the white race. Except, you know, there's that small issue of Native American genocide. So it's probably more like using Aunt Jemima or Sambo. Enough already. Even the Atlanta Braves, despite the continued mildly offensive and incredibly annoying tomohawk chop, have jettisoned all organizational reference to ridiculous Indian images (see Gage's Atlanta preview for a lovely racist Brave depiction), adopting the incredibly benign Homer as their mascot. Anyway, on to baseball.

The Cleveland Indians win my award for the most disappointing team in all of baseball in 2006. After an up-and-down 93 win season in 2005 when they gave the White Sox a huge scare at the end of the regular season with their lights-out play, they absolutely tanked in 2006, finishing with a record of 78-84. Not surprisingly, a lot of folks are picking the Indians as their sleeper team this year, sure to rebound with all their young talent after a disappointing hiccup last year. But are they really going to give the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins something to worry about this year? I'm not so sure...

That skepticism has little to do with the lineup, though. Somehow Travis "Pronk" Hafner remains one of the best kept secrets in baseball--as much of a secret as a guy who hits 42 homers and drives in 117 can be. It's absolutely absurd that Hafner, who has finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting the past two years, has yet to get to an All-Star game. He really got screwed last year by the White Sox bias--after David Ortiz, Thome and Konerko were the reserve first basemen/DHs. And the fans stuffed the ballot box for AJ Pierzynski to get the last spot over a much more deserving Hafner. Hey, maybe Hafner will hit 50 homers and drive in 140 this year just to prove that, behind Ortiz, he should be the most feared lefty in the AL. That would not bode well for the White Sox and the rest of the AL Central.

And Hafner's only a fraction of Cleveland's offensive firepower--Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, and Casey Blake are no slouches. I'm going to be really interested to see how the oft-traded, highly touted Andy Marte performs this year, in what is essentially his rookie season (he was the main prospect in the deal that sent Edgar Renteria to Atlanta in 2005, then Coco Crisp to Boston last year). Jhonny Peralta isn't much of an offensive threat, but he does have a mysteriously placed "h" in his name which could easily confuse opponents. But it's not the offense that's got me thinking the Indians might not see a resurgence this year. It's that pesky pitching staff.

CC Sabathia is good, and Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee are competent starters behind him. But after that is Paul Byrd--quite possibly the ugliest man in baseball--and a rookie, Jeremy Sowers. Yeah, you might skate by with those guys, sure... but when your closer is Joe Borowski, regardless of his 36 saves last year, you can't feel too comfortable. Can you? I wouldn't, anyway. As scary as the thought is, I'd rather have Bob Wickman closing games. That, and 42-year-old Roberto Hernandez was their big set-up bullpen pick-up to help out the magnificent self-destructing Fausto Carmona. It's been exactly a decade since Roberto last played for the ChiSox. Wow.

So, maybe that's not the most convincing argument in the world, but I just have a feeling about the Indians. And that feeling is that they're just not as good as people would like to believe--they'll be fighting with the Twinkies for third in the AL Central this year instead of competing for a division title.