What I Know & Why I'm An Idiot: Round 2

I know that the Reds really can compete for a playoff spot in the Central. They have starting pitching and a pretty solid lineup. They've even been playing better defense this year (or at least Adam Dunn says he's trying harder, and we all know what matters is that you try your best). Plus, they've got the Josh Hamilton Experience just gaining steam and warm fuzzies all over the land.

I'm an idiot because, well they keep fucking losing. And not just losing, blowing winnable games. I occasionally wake up screaming after another nightmare about the bullpen. The falling dream is nothing compared to the "blown four-run lead in the bottom of the 9th" dream. Now, that'll make you wet the bed. I'm also an idiot because I'm putting a whole lot of faith in 36 year old Eddie Guardado coming back from an arm injury to being the closer. I'm not proud of my flawed belief system, but it's all I've got.

I know that the dentist is going to tell me to floss more every time I see him, just like he did today. I also know that he has a bigshot degree, but I'd be nice to see him for more than five minutes per visit.

I'm an idiot because I never take his advice and now I have three brand new cavities waiting to get filled next week. Bring on the Novocaine!

I know that I've become completely apathetic towards this whole Bonds business. It's a foregone conclusion that he's going to break the record now and I couldn't care less. Despite the report Trout mentions below, the media has saturated us with so much talk about it that any ardent follower of the sport knows he did 'roids and knows the record will be tainted. So, I just don't care.

I'm an idiot because... well, because fuck Barry Bonds, that's why. He's a cheater and an asshole and doesn't deserve to break the record. Plus, what kind of worthless SOB do you have to be the most famous player in the game, have your own reality show and still not be able to make anybody like you? Plus, he looks like one of those squeezable dolls where there head blows up and the eyes bugg out. Screw you fat head.

I know that I was really excited for the boxing match Saturday night. Mayweather came off looking like a real piece of garbage beforehand (although I did like him referring to himself as "the 50 Cent of boxing." What's that mean, Floyd? Two hits and then your career is over?). So I was rooting for De La Hoya, even though I had money on Mayweather. We bought the fight and all got together to watch it. I hadn't done that in a long time, and it was fun.

I'm an idiot because the fight was generally pretty boring, just like boxing tends to be today. It went exactly as everybody predicted with Mayweather just being too quick for Oscar. Snooze. Nobody even got hurt in this fight. It was light a couple of heavyweights (in the bad defensive and grabby sort of way). I'm officially done with boxing. At least I won money on Mayweather.

I know that the Kentucky Derby is always one of my favorite days of the year. If you live in KY and can't find a Derby party to go to, you're not looking. We had a grand time, and I made some wagers and drank some beer. And then some more. There's nothing quite like showing up at a partying and hearing "Hey Gage, free keg beer. It was leftover from some frat party." Really? I mean I'm still in my 20s but frat beer? Not that I didn't drink it, of course.

I'm an idiot because I always feel the need to bet more money than I have any business betting on the race. It's really amazing how quickly a trifecta can go to shit. In the blink of an eye, really. Let's just say I had multiple tickets and not one of them had Street Sense on it. Ugh. It's a good thing you can't be addicted to gambling. Whew.

I know that I haven't been posting much lately and I blame that on a number of issues, such as having a "real job" and "responsibilities."

I'm an idiot because I'm really just lazy. I know it's hard to believe, but sometimes I want to just lay on the couch with my pants off watching a Reds' game. Is that so wrong?

For Those Non-Degenerates Out There

Lost in the scuttlebutt over the absolutely Earth-shaking comeback victory by Peyton and the Mannings, was a little gambling miracle that took place in the same contest. I watched the game with another friend who (like me) had taken the Colts giving 3.5 in this particular game. Anyone who regularly bets games knows that 3.5 points is painful in a close game because yee ole game-winning field goal means everything to the outcome of the game, but nothing to the point spread.

So, what happened Sunday? Well, first the Colts laid an absolute egg in the first half. My buddy was muttering to himself under his breath, considering blaming me for influencing him to play the Colt and fielding phone calls with comments like "you're right there should be a rule that you can't bet against Brady in the playoffs!" Let's just say things, got tense.

But nay, we didn't give up and kept watching. Suddenly the Colts came out firing in the second half and before we knew it we had a 4th quarter with the game tied. During a timeout we began discussing the potential scenarios where we could actually win money. First, no overtime. It's not worth hoping somebody wins an NFL overtime with a touchdown. Second, we'd love a straight up Colts' TD (just no FG). But when the Pats got the ball deep in Indy territory we decided our best hope was going to be option number three: Pats FG, followed by Colts TD. This is standard procedure for a sports gambler. There's always some miracle scenario that turns your losing bet into a winning one. Of course they never seem to happen, but this time it all came true. As Joseph Addai rumbled in for that final score, suddenly all was right with the world. All in all, possibly my most satisfying bet of the year. Now, two weeks to decide if I like the Colts minus seven. Hmmmm.....

Gage's Still On Vacation Picks - Week 17

I seriously thought about not posting any picks this week seeing as how I am still out of town and on a borrowed laptop that is made by some company called "Apple" (never heard of em). But, I remembered that I've come this far and actually have managed to have a winning record on the season and goddamnit it's week 17, so I soldier on (in the metaphorical sense not in the disrespecting our troops sense, fyi).

Houston (-5.5) over Cleveland
This looks to be the major pillow fight of the week and with the Ron Dayne experience in full effect, no less, I feel good about Houston. That good feeling is basesd primarily on the utter ineptitude of Cleveland. We should have known about Romeo. It's just not a football coach name. The great coaches were named Vince or Mike or John, not Romeo or Cassanova.

New Orleans (+2) over Carolina
How do you pick games in week 17? I am totally clueless so I'm sticking to the one team I've loved all year in the Saints. Plus they are getting points against a Carolina team that I have absolutely not been impressed with all season. I saw them in person this year and still they left me clueless. Go Drew (swoon).

Oakland (+11) over NY Jets
Betting on the Radiers? Yes I've lost my mind. They have nothing to play for and the Jets are sitting on a "win and you're in" situation. But this is what I'm calling the "fuck with Gage" game of the week. As you surely know, most likely way for Cincinnati to make the playoffs is if the Jets lose and the Bengals win. So, I expect New York to string Oakland along just long enough to get my hopes up and and then quickly dash them into a million pieces at the end. Sigh.... Thus, Oakland covers.

Seattle (+3) over Tampa Bay
Again, a good team getting points against a worse team. I know Seattle already is in and has nothing to play for, but neither does Tampa. What's that? Pride? Are they all out of that in the pacific northwest these days? And a heavenly light shown down upon Shaun Alexander's ankle and said "let the Seahawks win".

Tennessee (-3) over New England
Vince Young has made a lot of people a lot of money in the past few weeks. Finally he gets a little credit this week but I'm going to stay on the bandwagon, just because I'm a sucker and that's what I do. Later this week I'm going to invest in some high risk stocks because surely the stock market is predictable and could never crash.

Have a good New Years Rockin' Eve. Reguar posting by yours truly will resume this week. Go Bengals!

Gage's Picks of Wow I'm Still Clueless - Week 16

New Orleans (+3) over NY Giants
Drew Brees plus three points = extra dreamy Drew Brees. I dunno about this one. But, I'm going to count on Eli breaking some hearts and continuing to choke in big games. As always, get em Drew!

Baltimore (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
The Ravens are just the better team here. I'm sure the fans in western Pennsylvainia are really excited about some miniscule/virtually-impossible chance of making the playoffs. Let's go ahead and shoot them down this week. I'd really really prefer that they have nothing to play for when they come to Cincy on New Years Eve.

San Fransisco (-4) over Arizona
As it turns out 'Frisco is actually playing for something. Well, holy Nolan! Arizona has shown streaks ans beat a really up and down Seattle team a couple weeks ago, but really they have no reason to give a damn. Thus, San Fran pulls it out.

Seattle (+4.5) over San Diego
This one is for Trout. He thinks Alexander's divine ankle will run all over the Chargers, so why not? Does either team have much to play for? Not really. Of course this pick makes me look stupid when I'm remeinded that San Diego is the best team in the NFL. Oh well.

Philly (+7) over Dallas
I keep harping on this, but I'd say Philly has a whole lot more to play for than Dallas. Plus, this Jeff Garcia thing might just be catching on. And, how self-loathing can Philly fans get over this whole thing? Seriously, they go from McNabb and sucking ass to quasi-gay Garcia and winning games. That's rough.

Gage's Playoff Hopeful Picks - Week 17

For those of you still paying attention (hello? anybody?) , I managed to go 4-1 last week purely picking the teams that I wanted to see win. My only mistake, Jacksonville over Indy. Holy shit what a beatdown (pretend I made that statement 6 days ago when it was timely). Anyway, apparently my mojo was flowing last week so let's keep it up.... On another note, I don't think I could be more excited about Bengals vs. Colts on Monday night if they made Peyton Manning run down a live chicken before kickoff.

Minnesota (-3.5) over NY Jets
Ew, I fucking hate this pick. But, I'm sticking to the stystem until it lets me down. Seriously though, how is Minny giving up three and a half just for being at home? Is there anybody who thinks they are a better team than the Jets? My only consolation here: Chad Pennington on the road.

Tennessee (+3.5) over Jacksonville
Okay, now here's one to get a little more excited about. The Vince Young show is sweeping the nation. They may not be in the hunt this year, but Vince is putting on a show and everybody is taking notice. Home underdog too. Maybe the most fun thing about the new era of VY: Colts fans have to get a little more frightened every time he takes over the fourth quarter of a game. He may single handedly kill their streak of dominating the AFC South.

Arizona (+2.5) over Denver
San Diego (-8) over Kansas City
Denver and KC are getting easier and easier to pick against every week. Fun group of young QB's out west in these games in Rivers, Leinart and Cutler. I can't wait for Berman to start making jokes about "gunslingers" and the "wild west." Has he already? Did I mis it?

Cincinnati (+3) over Indianapolis
All personal bias aside, thank the football gods for a fun Monday night game (or at least potentially fun). I will now go beg for forgiveness from those same gods for gambling with my team in a big game. Please don't break my heart football Zeus. I'll slaughter a goat or whatever.

Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 34-32-3

Gage's Wishlist Picks - Week 14

Well, last week hurt. The bottom completely fell out of your reliable 2-3 or 3-2 picks and I checked in with a big 0-4-1. I've run out of ways to say that I'm clueless. With the playoff races heating up and the AFC tighter than a rusty bolt on a '57 Chevy (thanks 2000 Dan Rather!), I'm just picking the games the way I want them to go. So, if all goes as planned, the Bengals will be one step closer to the wild card and I'll be sitting on a big stack of cash by the end of the day. Let's not discuss the alternative.

Picks To Help Cincy Get the WC:
Baltimore (+3) over KC
Ew, rooting for the Ravens. But, they should win this game easily. If you recall KC lost to Cleveland last week. I refuse to accept home field advantage arguments when playing a team that's 3-9 coming in. Really, I feel good about this one no matter who wins. If the Bengals and Chefs end up tied, Cincy holds the tiebreaker with a win in week 1. And they're only two games back of the Ravens. Don't hold your breath, but it could happen.

Indy (pick) over Jacksonville
Have you seen the Jaguars play this year? They are completely unpredictable. But, Indy needs to get back on the horse after last week, and remember I'm just betting the way I want things to go. This just feels right.

Buffalo (+4) over NY Jets
Do I really think Buffalo can go into NYC and get a win? Not really. But that's the same logic that's been fucking me all season. Losman to Evans, TD! Hell I dunno.

San Diego (-7.5) over Denver
This line seems extraordinarily high but I guess you get 3 points for being at home and 4.5 points for playing against the Jay Cutler experience. Go Lightning Bolts!

Picks To Feed My Mancrush:
New Orleans (+7.5) over Dallas
Romo, Brees, It's the NFC Championship! Snooze. Give the ball to Reggie Bush plenty just for the highlights, please.

Gage's Later and Later Picks - Week 13

Minnesota (+9) over Chicago
In the shit-tacular NFC, there's going to be a couple of ridiculously mediocre teams that make the playoffs. This week the Vikings look up and find themselves with a chance to win that distinction. I think they just want this one more than the Bears, who will be looking to bounce back, but nine goddamned points?

Washington (-1.5) over Atlanta
It just seems like a good time to pick against Atlanta. Finger-gate continues as Vick has to go on the road. Good time for a complete freefall. Maybe the Jason Campbell experience works out and Washington finally has a quarterback.

Miami (pick) over Jacksonville
Dolphins - a team on the rise. Jaguars - slumping. That said, Jacksonville is utterly unpredictable, but at least they're on the road. And just in case you're keeping track, I just bet on Joey Harrington.

Oakland (-3) over Houston
Gage's Law pick. That's right, go Raiders! We're demoting coordinators as Art Shell considers waking up from his coma any day now. And I'm betting on them. This is why I continue to lose.

Dallas (-3) over NY Giants
It's Romo-rific! Strahan's head explodes under the pressure of knowing he hurt someone's feelings. Seriously, is anybody betting against Romo at this point?

To summarize, this week I'm betting on one crummy team, two rookie quarterbacks, Joey Harrington and the Radiers. I'm an idiot.

Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 30-27-2

Gage's Last Minute Picks - Week 12

Kansas City (-2) over Denver
Yeah I know this one already happened but you'll just have to take my word that I bet it. If someone out there was waiting for my picks to influence their Thanksgiving gambling, I'm sorry but you are a fool. Basically I took the home team vs a struggling quarterback. Boom, that one worked out.

NY Jets (-4.5) over Houston
Did someone say the Jets have an outside shot at the playoffs? Wow. This will be a nice little run for Jets fans where they finish 9-7 and give Chad Pennington a ridiculous contract extention. Anyway, in order to do that they have to beat shitty teams like Houston.

NY Giants (-3) over Tennessee
Bounce back game for the Giants. I hate picking road favorites, but I just can't see Tennessee hanging with the Giants. And, I'm banking on Eli being able to handle the crowd in Nashville. Maybe I should change this one. Aw, fuck it.

Buffalo (+3) over Jacksonville
It's cold in Buffalo this time of year. I keep thinking the Bills have a lot more talent than they're letting on, and they showed a little of that last week. Plus, you know how I love home underdogs. Of course, the Jaguars looked awesome while trouncing the Giants last week which makes me look stupid. But, I'm going to say this is a letdown game. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Baltimore (-3) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers have shown some signs of life of late, but one more loss will make seven and they are officially finished (if not already). Meanwhile Baltimore is looking to get that number two seed in the playoffs and can legitimately start thinking about home field advantage. I'm taking the home team with something to play for.

Gage's Picks of Wasting My Time (Week 11)

Lookout world! Another 2-3 week means I am still completely useless, but at least the apocalypse isn't upon us. So that's nice. The bad news, as always is that I will provide you no help in your gambling ventures. Yet, for some reason I trudge on.
The Bengals play at New Orleans today, and after I wrote my post declaring them all but dead, I'm having a hard time getting too fired up. If they're not dead already, this game could officially kill their spirit, so I guess we'll see what they're made of. I didn't hear any proclimations by Ocho Cinco declaring himself a "pass catching hurricane" which is encouraging, but we will see. Worst case scenario: my mancrush (now one word!) wins the game. Anyway, onto the picks....

Baltimore (-3.5) over Atlanta
Why does Baltimore keep winning? I have no idea, but they do. And if you don't think their defense can rattle Michael Vick you're crazy. Vick can look great against a paper-thin defense like Cincy, but as soon as he starts rolling out and gets dropped by Ray Lewis one time, he'll start chucking balls into double coverage. Maybe this will be the game you see him doing the old QB slide.

St. Louis (+6.5) over Carolina
This one comes down to past performance for me. The Panthers barely beat a Dallas team that everybody wants to like, but really has shown no evidence of being any good. The Lou has Stephen Jackson who has officially proven himself and should run all over him. On a side note, how about the RB tandem in the state of Missouri? Jackson & Johnson: For All Your Insurance Needs should be keeping those show me staters happy for a long time.

Arizona (-2) over Detroit
This one follow's what I'm going to start referring to as "Gage's Law". Two shitty teams, playing, take the home team. I have nothing more to say about this one.

Indianapolis (+1) over Dallas
Two simple points here. First, do you remember when I said that I'm taking Indy plus points until they prove any reason why not? That was against Denver on the road, and Denver is a FAR better team than Dallas. Um, yeah. And second, I said earlier that I just don't believe in Dallas. The media and pundits want them to be a superbowl team, but they're just not. Parcells' cock must taste like candy the way everybody is bobbing on it. Trust me, you don't want to be in line for that.

San Diego (+2.5) over Denver
I'm biased. Last week's game convinced me that San Diego is in the class of the AFC. This should be a great game, but I just think they have too many weapons and can overcome the Denver defense. The Sunday night national telivision could wipe out any home field advantage. I'll be looking forward to this one.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 24-24-2
(Thank goodness for paying juice so I can't forget than even at .500 I'm still a loser)

Gage's Picks of Winninlygness - Week 10

Here's the drill: every week I win either 2 or 3 games. The utter lack of skill I've shown which has basically proven that winning at football gambling takes some skill that I obviously do not posess. Regardless, gambling is fucking fun and I'm quickly becoming a degenerate.

Look, I'm totally at a loss this week with the Bengals. It's been a week of confusion and withdrawl. Tomorrow against the Lightning Bolts is a large game. I'm concerned because you have to get to Rivers if you want to win this game because you're not going to stop LT. This worries due to the Bengals complete lack of a real pass rush. So, there's two ways to look at this one: a) the team is unraveling and in a complete downward spiral, the season is over (not terribly appealing) and b) the adversity will inspire them to pull their collective heads out of each other's asses to win this game. I'm going with b. Optimism, my friends. The picks....

Cincy (+1) over The Diego
Explained above. This starts a trend....

Tennessess (+7) over Baltimore
Home underdogs. I can't tell you how much I like betting home dogs. Of course VY could come out and throw 4 picks and let Ray Lewis give him a concussion. I'm still sticking to my bet though because I just don't belive the Nevermore Crusaders are a championship caliber team and is vulnerable. (Note that the Bengals would have won that game last week barring a 14 point spot in the first quarter, the Ravens couldn't put them away)

Oakland (+9.5) over Denver
Jeeze, what's wrong with me? Oh well, another home underdog entices me. Basically what I'm hoping for here is an early score from the Radiers and a lot of running the ball out of both teams. Who knows? It could happen. Obviously I have no idea what I'm doing.

Arizona (+6.5) over Dallas
I can only justify this by saying that I'm picking all home underdogs on the board. I think that I will win at least two of them and I'll take that. Maybe Edge and Leinart will find somebody to block for them. Who knows? It could happen.

Kansas City (+1.5 ) over Miami
This one feels like the better team getting points. Plus, I couldn't break from my streak of picking underdogs. Seriously though, aren't the Dolphins primed for a letdown after that win last week? And, I'm thinking that Vegas has overestimated them after that week. Further proof that I'm an idiot.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 22-21-2

Gage's Picks Of Further Evident Mediocrity - Week 9

The depths to which I have been able to demonstrate utterly unremarkable results in picking games is truly astounding. I keep telling myself that I'm accumulating experience that will serve me well at the end of the year, yet I continue to lose. New rule this week: if two shitty teams are playing, pick the home team. See Tennessee and Cleveland last week. See? I'm learning.

Denver (+3) over Pittsburgh
This week's Charlie Batch special. Nothing makes me happier than betting against the Steelers and having it feel like a safe bet. The Bronchos want to atone for last weeks lost. I'm getting points with the better team in this one.

Buffalo (-3) over Green Bay
This one goes back to what I was talking about in the intro. Two craptacular teams playing, take the home team. I feel good about this new rule. Not "I'm going to win this bet" good, just "at least there seems to be some justification" good.

New England (-3) over Indy
The Patriots are a really good team. It pains me to say it, but they seem to have the ability to turn their game up to another level when they have to. Do they have to this week? Probably not. They're already running away with the division. But, I think Belicheck is determined to put Peyton Manning in the crazy house someday.

St Louis (-2) over KC
I don't have any real reason why I like this one. Just felt good. Two middle of the pack teams, take the home team. St. Louis will probably need a couple of turnovers in this one because LJ could have a big day against the Lou's defense. But I think that can happen.

New Orleans (-1) over Tampa Bay
Drew totally gave me the cold shoulder last week with a dismantling at the hands of the dreaded Ravens. I'm going to give him a reprive this week because I think it's distinctly possible that he was just trying to butter up Baltimore and make them over-confident coming into the Bengals game this weekend. And, it all comes back around to Cincinnati in the end.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 19-19-2

Gage's Back On The Horse Picks - Week 8

3-1-1 last week, woot woot! I'm back on top baby. Ok, maybe I should temper that reaction just a touch, but I'm feeling good, like I'm fresh off the DL after a couple weeks on the sidelines. No more homoerotic trainer rubbing my hamstring. This is a total jinx, but I'm feeling good about this week's picks. You thinking what I'm thinking? Yeah, I'm screwed.

Indy (+3) over Denver
This line jumped out me right away. Indy is a better team than Denver and they say you get three points just for being at home. That means that, all things being equal, these are equally skilled teams. Does anybody believe that? I'm taking Indy plus points against anybody. Plus, how many times have they absolutely smoked the Broncos in the past few years? (P.S. Jake Plummer)

New Orleans (-1.5) over Baltimore
Drew Brees how do I love thee, let me count the ways: One, you took Purdue to the Rose Bowl. Two, you stayed for your senior season. Three, you made Daunte Culpepper look like a total chump. Sigh.... Anyway, Baltimore is struggling and McNair has some sort of "head injury." Is there a med school textbook entirely on McNair yet?

Carolina (-5) over Dallas
Romo is starting. Carolina has a good defense. The great thing here is that all Dallas games are officially worth watching now, just to see TO lay into Romo. With the right camera angle we'll get to see a tear slide down his cheek while Drew Bledsoe stands in the background trying not to smile. Can't wait.

NY Jets (+2) over Cleveland
The Jets are basically better than the Brown Mistakes on the Lake at every position. And they're not a good team. But, good enough to beat crappy teams. (See last week)

Kansas City (-4) over Seattle
I can't really see me adding much to this one, QB and RB hurt, KC at home blah blah. Seems like a layup with Seattle playing down to the competition every week. I would like to use this opportunity to say how tainted my opinion of Alexander is now. He's a good Kentucky boy who took the college game and the NFL by storm and always seemed like a nice guy. Then he had to go and say that God healed his ankle. Whatever your personal belief system is, I'm pretty sure his holiness isn't in the business of healing certain football players' injuries so that they can go earn their millions of dollars. Oh yeah, and his ankle was - of course - not healed.

Last Week: 3-1-1
Season: 17-16-2

Gage's Picks of Redemption (Week 7)

I'm getting ready to head up to the 'Nati for another crucial showdown for the Bengals. I don't really want to talk about how important this game is because I'm really nervous about it. Let's just say "very important." Ok, let me hit you with a hot set of picks. This week is "back to basics" week. I'm revisiting my system from week 1 with the best 2/3 of QB, RB, Def. Watch my money disappear. Woosh....

NY Jets (-3.5) over Detroit
The Lions are just that bad. I can't tell you enough how silly it is to trust your team to Jonny Kitna. On a good team he can get you to 8-8. On this team.... well you can see for yourself. I know the Jets have had some bad games, but they hung in with the Colts and I picked up Leon Washington in fantasy, so he needs to come through.

Indy (-8) over Washington
Manning needs to get a good game in, and they're at home. It's been too long since the Colts hung 45 on somebody. They should win this game by 10 points nine out of ten times. Let's hope today isn't game ten.

San Diego (-5) over Kansas City
My buddy Josh said to me that SD is the best team in the AFC last night. I couldn't argue. Granted, I was half drunk, but this is a good team. This Rivers kid will be solid.

Cincy (-3) over Carolina
Ooooohhhh I told you I didn't want to talk about it. Palmer has to take over this game, that's the only option. Plllleeeaasseeee.

Atlanta (+3) over Pittsburgh
Fear the home underdog. Atlanta plays really well at home. And they're probably tired of people telling them how bad they are. I feel like this game is more or less a push at all three of my key points, so I'm going with the home team playing on turf.

Gage's Picks of Shame - Week 6 (plus Bengals Rundown)

Posting might be a little slow this weekend, not only are trout and I both heading out of town but my internet went down at camp Gage last night, meaning this post is 100% on company time. Hooray for my Friday slacker ass.
Before the picks which will surely lead to another losing week, I'd like to discuss the Bengals. I really hope they used their bye week to it's full advantage. Without sounding too much like a Yankees or Red Sox fan and knock on a 3-1 team, they have me a little worried. A quick rundown...
QB: Carson is everybody's favorite player. He's the franchise and he will be fine. But he's still knocking the rust off, hopefully week six is when he'll finally open it up against your grandma's Bucs' defense.
RB: Rudi. Solid. He really should be everybody's favorite player. Always runs hard, never complains. I do worry that Jeremi Johnson is going to get frustrated because he has to go out for the TE on the hurry-up offense.
WR: Chad is the most exciting reciever in the league and TJ has the best hands in the league. Whoops, Chris Henry has the lowest alcohol tolerance in the league. Kelly Washinton is the worst dancer in the league. I'm conflicted.
OL: Banged up, not good. The strengh of the team last year becomes one of it's weak points. Who knew that the ugliest man I've ever seen could be so important? One word every fan hates to hear about their O-line: "shuffling"
DL: I can't complain here. Not the most talented in the league, but they seem to give it their all every week. Sam Adams has been a good change of pace. The QB pressure has been awful, but I don't know if that's the D-line's fault. More of a scheme thing.
LB: Injuries again. Here's hoping Pollock has a full recovery just for his own sake. But, let's see, the leading tackler from last year and the number one draft pick from last year, both gone for the season. That takes its toll. And as loud as I scream every time Landon Johnson (Boilermaker) makes a tackle it doesn't seem to help. Tough situation.
DB: Tory James gets burned now and then, but he's old. Joseph is coming on and Deltha is still solid. The defense defintely needs Dexter Jackson back. He seems to be willing to tackle a running back (earth to Kevin K.) and that way Madeiu Williams (STUD) might not have to lead the team in tackles.
So there you have it. Tampa should be an easy week coming off the bye, but this is the NFL so you never know. I'm looking for an improvement in the run defense and a more consistent pass rush. Othere than that it should be a fun one.

The picks...
Buffalo (-1) over Detroit
Seems like a team on the rise vs. a team counting on Jon Kitna.

Chicago (-10.5) over Arizona
Back on the bandwagon. It's impossible to pick against this team right now, especially with a crap opponent.

New Orleans (+3) over Philidephia
Go get 'em Drew! I told you I wasn't picking against the Saints at home the rest of the season.

Baltimore (-3) over Carolina
The QB/RB combos are tied here so I think the Baltimore defense will make the difference. Chris McAllister can cover Steve Smith.

Pittsburgh (-7) over Kansas City
At 1-3 this is an absolute must win game for the reigning chumps. 2-3 is manageable, 1-4 in possibly the toughest division in footbal could cause Roethlisberger to start going in for elective surgeries just to get off the field.

Lots of favorites this week, I'm tired of drooling over huge point spreads and taking the dog. Here's hoping to get back into the black. I'm now at exactly .500 on the season after my worst week yet, which depresses me to no end. I really thought I had a clue.

Last Week: 1-3-1
Season: 12-12-1
Last 3 Weeks: 5-9-1

Gage's Picks of Mediocrity (Week 5)

I refuse to speak ill of Mark Brunell for several weeks now. I have bet against him for several weeks and every week he has fucked me over. The record for consecutive completions? What the fuck was that? You got me you silly son of a bitch. At least this week the Bengals are on bye and I won't be tempted to bet on them. Just too emotional.
And, if you're wondering, yes I was at the game Sunday. No, I haven't come to terms with it. Talk about dropping a big turd. I haven't seen them play that bad in a couple of years. I'm surprised Carl Pickens didn't come out of retirement to make some disparaging comments about the organization. It was so bad I spent five minutes in the bathroom after the game listening to some drunk guy give me his thesis on why Marvin is a bad third quarter coach. Anyway, I'm picking games.

Washington (+4.5) over NY Giants
Let's get this out of the way. I'm reversing my fortunes on this one. Better late than never. Also, Clinton Portis is a stud. Everyone's still a little groggy after drinking the kool aid on the Giants and this line seems high.

San Diego (-3) over Pittsburgh
The Chargers lost a heartbreaker last week to Steve McNair and his crotchey old knees. I was standing in the concourse watching this one end last week and the whole crowd was in complete disbelief. Of course my dad began preaching about how great McNair is and would hear none of any argument, making me want to strangle someone. So, this is one they want to get back. And, I'm a firm believer in the trouble east coast teams have going out west for games (see the Reds season-killing west coast road trip) and having a hard time with the travel. I have no stats to back this up.

Carolina (-8) over Cleveland
Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith. Now name a Cleveland defensive back.

Buffalo (+10) over Chicago
Ten points!? Buffalo isn't that bad. I still say Chicago wins, but ten points is a lot. Of course, here is another one of those games that gives me a bad feeling. I've been riding Chicago all season and now I'm jumping off like a coked out hooker. What is wrong with me?

New Orleans (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
My first thought: the Saints are a better team by a touchdown than the Bucs on a neutral field and you gotta give them credit for playing at home. The superdome will be crazy again. I refuse to pick against them at home this year. (Note: after an ill-advised week off, my man crush on Drew Brees makes its triumphant return)

Last Week: 2-3 (again, goddamnit)
Season Record: 11-9

Jon's Picks:
Indy -18
Arizona +3.5
Pittsburgh +3
New England -10
Cleveland +8

Last Week: 2-3
Season Record: 10-9-1

Gage's Picks of Confidence - Week 4 Edition

Minnesota (+1) over Buffalo
Alright, I shouldn't have been so quick to write off Minnesoata. That game last week really fucked all my bets. I picked the winner but they didn't cover. Oh yeah and don't forget about Carolina doing the same. Whoops. Losman will look lost in this game and the Vikings get back on the win column. Plus, they're getting a point? Cool.

Jacksonville (-3) over Washington
The Redskins, on the other hand, I don't believe in. Forgive me if I think Mark Brunell is a stiff and Santana Moss is overrated. The Jags defense is good. Going back to my Week 1 system, they get definite points for QB and defense. Bad prediction for the 'Skins: Portis has to make two seperate tackles after interceptions. Good predition: he manages to only twist an ankle.

St. Louis (-5.5) over Detroit
I'm really not sure about why I picked this one. Detroit is bad, St. Louis is not quite so bad and at home. That's enough for me. Plus, fuck Kevin Jones for screwing over my fantasy team so far.

Chicago (-3) over Seattle
Still on the Bandwagon. Shaun Alexander can pray all he wants, but I don't think they pull out this game on the road. Pray really hard and maybe you'll get some deep dish pizza. By the way, in a previous week I believe I said "fuck jinxes" to which I now say "fuck Jon Madden and his voodoo black magic." That dude has made a deal with the devil and I want no part of it.

San Fransisco (+7) over Kansas City
Trent Green is still out, that's all you really need to know. There's no reason to take a backup quarterback minus seven points, ever. Just seemed like too large of a point spread. Of course Larry Johnson could run for 250 yards and just remind me not to write him off. But, I still say seven is too many points.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 9-6

Jon's Picks:

San Diego (-2.5) over Baltimore

Carolina (-7) over New Orleans

Philadelphia (-11) over Green Bay

Cleveland (-2.5) over Oakland

Seattle (+3.5) over Chicago


Last Week: 0-4-1
Season: 8-6-1

Gage's Picks of Confidence (Week 3)

4-1 week two. I wanted to brag about it all week, but I waited. Being so modest is what makes me truly awesome. That's right, only Detroit really screwed me over last week. Apparently they really are as bad as advertised. I'm well on my way to re-enacting "Two For The Money." Which, if you haven't seen it is exactly as you'd expect it to be. Which means I'm still months away from my total meltdown and wrecking a Ferarri or something. This week seems to have some more obvious picks than last week, so here's where I get my ass handed to me.

Atlanta (-4) over New Orleans
This line seems awful low for a tough Atl team that has really pushed people around. Their D is legit. Maybe the Saints have the emotion going for them on their first night back in the Superdome, but they are really the inferior team here. Seriously, you can't beat two wet noodle teams in a row (Cleveland, GB) have everybody on your team's bandwagon. Plus, I don't have Vick on any of my fantasy teams this year so I miss him breaking my heart by going 5/18 with 85 yards and 3 int.

Chicago (-3.5) over Minnesota
Brian Urlacher will eat your children. He is not human. It seems ridiculous to even pick against this Chicago defense, as much as it pains me. No, I don't think Grossman is the second coming (sorry to spill the beans on your next column, Mariotti), but this team is solid. More importantly, the Vikings only TD last week was on a fake field goal. You really want to get behind that team? Not me.

Tennessee (+10.5) over Miami
Dante has apparently forgotten how to be a good QB. I don't buy this bullshit about he lost Moss and all that. he has good recievers and a running back who I think can be a badass. So why am I picking against them? Because he lost it. Sometimes you lose it and it never comes back (see Ken Griffey Jr.). Kerry Collins is good enough to cover. Just barely.

Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
Easiest pick of the week. Carolina is DESPERATELY in need of a win. Steve Smith might be back and Tampa is gawd awful. Gruden's forehead is going to start growing new veins to pop out this season. John Fox is going to out coach him. This is my lock of the week. Which of course means Tampa wins huge.

Washington (-4) over Houston
Eek. This one sucks, these teams suck. Maybe Portis comes back and I'm vidicated. Come on shoulder! I'm picking against the Texans because screw texas. That is all.

Last Week: 4-1
Season: 7-3

Jon's Picks:
Atlanta (-4) over New Orleans
Chicago (– 3.5) over Minnesota
Jacksonville (+7) over Indy
Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
Detroit vs Green Bay - the Under, 39 (Gage's Note: Not sure if this counts)

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 8-2

Gage's Picks of Confidence (Week 2)

Let's get this out of the way: Jon kicked my ass last week. Somehow this guy managed to go 5/5 on his week one picks. Plus, I understand he hit some big three team parlay to have a nice little weekend of gambling. I, on the other hand, went 3/5. However, I would like to point out that if the Colts had been able to convert a third and three up two points and run out the clock, we would have both gone 4/5. Instead they got stopped and kicked the field goal to just barely cover. Dicks.

Despite a winning record, this week I'm throwing out the system and going with my gut. Why? Because I'm not a man who settles for mediocrity. I'm not a smart man either.

Atlanta (-5.5) over Tampa Bay
I'm calling this "do believe the hype" Sunday. I'm jumping on everybody's bandwagon. Atlanta looked great last weekend and is at home for this one. Gruden considers benching Chris Simms for Major Applewhite. What happened to the Bucs? I never figured out why they were good (besides the incomperable Trent Dilfer, of course) but now why were they so bad last week? I think the O-Line is weak and John Abraham could have a large day. Falcons roll at home, even if Vick pulls a Vick.

New Orleans (+2.5) over Green Bay
Look, Green Bay is awful. They have been legitamately shitty since last year. At least they went out and got Charles Woodson. That's what your team needs, a defensive back. Reggie Bush seems like a nice guy, but if I'm him this year is dubbed "making the Texans look like complete idiots" season. And, if the Saints are smart they'll give him the ball as long as he wants it. My man crush on Drew Brees endures.

Jacksonville (+2.5) over Pittsburgh
The Jags seemed to get some confidence last week. They have serious potential to be my "team that I ride every week until they let me down" this year. I think one of my weaknesses in picking games is that I have certain players that just strike me the right way and fool me into thinking they are better than they really are. I'm pretty sure Byron Leftwitch has worked his voodoo magic on me. Even with that knowledge I'm betting this game.

Detroit (+9) over Chicago
Sigh...this week I couldn't actually find five games I felt strongly about. Last week we learned that Detroit's defense isn't complete garbage. This sems like the kind of game where the Bears defense outscores the offense. I picked against Jon Kitna last week and he screwed me. Never understimate his ability to inspire announcers to use the phrase "game manager." My point being, I just don't think either team scores a lot of points in this game so +9 seems really high.

Baltimore (-12) over Oakland
I'm tempted to just pick against Oakland the entire season. Talk about a train wreck, and that's just Aaron Brooks. Baltimore is another team where I'm buying the hype. That said, if Steve McNair gets out on the field with a walker, I want my money back. This whole team seems really old, but I think Oakland rolls over. Joey Porter is amused.

Jon's Picks:
"After a 5-0 Week 1 My selections for week 2 are as follows:"

New England (-6) over NYJ
Washington (+6.5) over Dallas
Minnesota (Pick) over Carolina
Detroit (+9) over Chicago
Cincy (-10.5) over Cleveland

Gage's picks of confidence

I've never been a sports gambler. I've never had any problem with it, just hardly seemed worth the anxiety. Until now. My good buddy Jon has been betting games for years and he has systems evaluating his systems. Today he challenged me to see who really knows their football, so for every week of the season I will be picking five NFL games against Jon's five games. I will actually be betting these games. Eat that, posers.

Philly (-5.5) over Houston
Just to spite Jon I've come up with a little system of my own. Basically, I'm taking any team that has the edge at two of the following three: QB, RB and Defense. This one lit up like three bars on a slot machine. Obviously I shouldn't buy into all the idiots telling me how McNabb is going to make some huge comeback, but I am. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Mario Williams will have less than 5 sacks in this game.

Seattle (-6) over Detroit
Look, fuck jinxes. I don't buy that shit. That said, if I'm Shaun Alexander I'm switching from laces to velcro. Just don't need any aded risk of trippage. Seriously though, I like Seattle big. Jon Kitna has small hands (but a big love for Jesus!). Does Detroit still field a defense?

New Orleans (+3) over Cleveland
Brees vs. ???, McCallister/Bush vs. ???, that's all I need to know for my system. Screw research. Unless Willie McGinnest can run, throw and catch the ball it should be a long day for the Brown turds on the lake.

Jacksonville (PICK) over Dallas
Seriously, can we start a "Fred Taylor's Hammy" hotline? Think of the fantasy sports and gambling ramifications. If I see the ESPN bottom line come up with a "Fred Taylor: Doubtful" at 12:30 pm Sunday I think I should really get my money back on this one. It's only fair. Oh yeah, and I have Matt Jones in two fantasy leagues, so he needs to step up. Ready, Gage on three..... "onetwothree GAGE!"

NY Giants (+3) over Indy
Put me in with the group that thinks this whole RB situation is going to hurt the Colts quite a bit. Don't they LIVE off that play action? The Giants get the edge in RB and defense. Giants win, Eli looks confused.

Jon's Picks:
Cincinnati (+1.5) over KC
Chicago (-3.5) over GB
Philly (-5.5) over Houston
Indy (-3) over NY Giants
Minnesota (+4.5) over Washington