This Is It: Super Bowl Picks and Predictions

Well here we are. Less than 6 hours until gametime. Less than 6 hours until the tiny little players trot out of the giant inflatable helmets and try to look cool for the cameras. And despite running the risk of jinxing my team, I decided I'd better PONY up (ha!) and offer my pick and predictions for the big game.

First off, if the over-under on the number of Manning faces Peyton will give us tonight is 2, I'll take the over. That doesn't mean I think the Colts will lose, it just means I think Peyton might shit himself with fear and throw a pick or two.

Second, the rain's not going to affect anything. Both teams can run, both teams can throw underneath passes. It might change the gameplan, but it won't change the outcome.

Third, Rex Grossman WILL crumble under the pressure. But you know he won't give you a Manning face. Sexy Rexy's a gunslinger all the way, baby, and he can't let interceptions and fumbles keep him down. He's a baller.

Prince will be better than the Stones and Paul McCartney. Naturally. Although nothing can top Michael Jackson appearing on top of the scoreboard back in the day. THAT was fucking awesome.

Devin Hester will make the Colts special teams look ridiculous. And he may completely change the face of the game. Dungy may tell Vinatieri and Smith to just kick everything out of bounds. Even on kick-offs.

Joseph Addai (and, to a lesser extent, Dominic Rhodes) will have a huge game, prompting Edgerrin James to go double-check his bank account to calm his rage.

I could go on with these inanities, but I think it's past time to wrap up:

MVP: Reggie Wayne
Final: Colts 34, Bears 30

For Those Non-Degenerates Out There

Lost in the scuttlebutt over the absolutely Earth-shaking comeback victory by Peyton and the Mannings, was a little gambling miracle that took place in the same contest. I watched the game with another friend who (like me) had taken the Colts giving 3.5 in this particular game. Anyone who regularly bets games knows that 3.5 points is painful in a close game because yee ole game-winning field goal means everything to the outcome of the game, but nothing to the point spread.

So, what happened Sunday? Well, first the Colts laid an absolute egg in the first half. My buddy was muttering to himself under his breath, considering blaming me for influencing him to play the Colt and fielding phone calls with comments like "you're right there should be a rule that you can't bet against Brady in the playoffs!" Let's just say things, got tense.

But nay, we didn't give up and kept watching. Suddenly the Colts came out firing in the second half and before we knew it we had a 4th quarter with the game tied. During a timeout we began discussing the potential scenarios where we could actually win money. First, no overtime. It's not worth hoping somebody wins an NFL overtime with a touchdown. Second, we'd love a straight up Colts' TD (just no FG). But when the Pats got the ball deep in Indy territory we decided our best hope was going to be option number three: Pats FG, followed by Colts TD. This is standard procedure for a sports gambler. There's always some miracle scenario that turns your losing bet into a winning one. Of course they never seem to happen, but this time it all came true. As Joseph Addai rumbled in for that final score, suddenly all was right with the world. All in all, possibly my most satisfying bet of the year. Now, two weeks to decide if I like the Colts minus seven. Hmmmm.....

Same Old Shit

Opposite Result: Super Bowl XLI.The Pats didn't miss Deion Branch at all, did they? Thanks much, Reche Caldwell.

Apparently the Pats and Colts are Playing Sunday. Have You Heard?

I've got nothing to say about the game itself. The media and bloggers galore have flogged this pony to death. But, thank goodness, I can always blog on the bloggers, yes? So let's let the vitriol flow...

Bill Simmons has officially lost touch with reality. The Sports Guy has officially jumped the shark. Yeah, yeah, this is not news. FTG was even founded on the principle that Simmons was slipping. Plenty of other bloggers have noted Simmons' douchebaggery for awhile now--most notably Kissing Suzy Kolber--but Simmons' most recent column drove me over the edge into a blind rage over the numbfuckingskullery on display.

The premise of the whole indignant, dipshitted column is that the Patriots have unjustifiably become the Yankees of football--a team most of America loves to hate. And then Simmons drops this: "If you can't appreciate THIS team, even as an impartial observer, what does that say about the future of sports?" If you don't recognize this as a dumb motherfucking apocalyptic homerism, then you've got Tom Brady's cock firmly implanted up your ass.

Hey, guess what, Bill? I don't fucking appreciate this team. Do I respect them? Yes. I respect the dynasty they've become, even more than I could ever respect the Yankees dynasty--mostly because of the salary cap issues you outline in your otherwise taint-smelling column. But do I appreciate them? Fuck no. You know why? Because I'm a goddamned Colts fan. And 90% of this country is a fan of a team other than the cocksucking Patriots. Does that strike you as strange, Bill? Then pull your head out of your ass and get a breath of fresh air. Contrary to your addled conclusions, Patriots hatred does not signal a fundamental shift in the "fan-sports dynamic," whatever the ass that means. You might as well be Andy Rooney nattering on about sodium in his diet, because you're about as culturally relevant with your brainless Pats worship.

Here's the deal, Bill: the Big Dog--and make no mistake, the Patriots are the Big Dog--exists to be taken down. If the Big Dog wins, the Little Dogs lose, and everyone roots for the Little Dogs. THAT's the American Way.

You try to show us, Bill, how the Patriots uphold all that is good and glorious in professional sports, a team that gets by on sheer GUTS, a team full of unassuming team-oriented players. Nevermind the fact that the same bullshit story could be dreamed up for any of the teams left in the playoffs or the inevitable circle jerk that ensues when everyone from Peter King to Dan Marino brings up the Brady-Belichick genius. Nevermind that New England fans are incredibly more obnoxious than Cubs fans have ever been (and we all know how FTG despises loud, ignorant Cubs fans--God forbid the Cubs ever win something of consequence). Nevermind that Tom Brady is a goddamned goatcuddling cereal-eating pretty boy who apparently has his way with any supermodel he wants. No, nevermind these things. We should all love the Patriots.

What makes the Patriots-as-Big-Dog worse is the endless media frenzy over this era that makes the Peyton Manning jizzfest look like small potatoes. KSK puts it well, I think, writing, "Look, this is not to say that we necessarily hate the Patriots. We're just sick of the blind worship and fellating from the media and the team's fans." Amen, KSK, amen.

Simmons' idiocy is all the more baffling given his recognition of the very reason why so many of us have come to despise the Patriots. He writes: "Like every other Boston fan, I grew up hating the Yankees, Canadiens, Steelers and Cowboys. My teams always lost, those teams always won, and I despised them with every fiber in my body." As you make clear with that statement, Bill, it doesn't matter how the fuck the team wins--whether they do it the "right" way (whatever the fuck that is), whether they overcome all odds, whether they do the "little things," whether they are "clutch"--all that matters is that they've won consistently. And that's no fun for anyone but Pats fans. Wake the fuck up, Simmons.

Colts Prevail Despite Another Manning Choke Job, or, Peyton Thanks Jesus the Pats are Cheap, Cocky Bastards

Make no mistake. Peyton Manning executed another monumental choke job against the Ravens tonight. But Adam Vinatieri, a HUGE Dallas Clark catch on third down, and Ray Lewis bailed his ass out. Vinatieri nailed five field goals (Vanderjagt would have been good for three of those, tops) and Ray Lewis tipped two easy interceptions, again subjecting us broadcasters telling us it somehow matters that the Colts used to be in Baltimore. Baltimore: if indeed you still care, get the fuck over it. You've got a new franchise and a Super Bowl title since the Irsays fucked you over. Indianapolis has been somewhat less fortunate.

Back to Peyton. I don't really care that the Ravens had the best defense in the league. The Colts, supposedly, have one of the best offenses in the league led by a quarterback every broadcaster is compelled to verbally fellate. A game with no touchdowns and two picks generally isn't going to cut it. Granted, one of those was basically the equivalent to a punt, but as I mentioned before, he should have had at least two more. It's the same formula teams have always used--send pressure his way which gives Manning happy feet and leads him to freaking stupid throws. What happened to checkdowns to a running back in the middle or the flat? This game didn't instill too much confidence going into next week against the Pats or the Chargers.

On the flip side, the Pats and Chargers have to be a little wary about facing a Colts defense which seems to be peaking at the right time. The Colts D made my prediction look good (I'd say two picks, one on the goal line, amounts to big plays) against an admittedly anemic offense. You can bet that they won't hold their next opponent to only six points, but I'm becoming skeptical that they'll get run all over either. Maybe Manning will crap the bed in the AFC Championship game, but hey, he's got the opportunity all over again. That's all Colts fans can ask for. Thanks again, Pats, for letting Vinatieri go... it might come back to haunt you next week.

Lessons From Madden '07, or, Trout's Saturday Playoff Picks

Before we get started here, I should remind readers that if they want any real analysis from someone who appears to know something, go over and check out Planet Killer. This weekend's posts on playoff match-ups and playoff picks are undoubtedly more informative than what's about to come...

The early game today pits a playoff choker (no, not Peyton Manning... Tony Dungy) versus a guy in Brian Billick who has shown he can win the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Trent fucking Dilfer. Anyway, apparently none of this matters in the Madden Universe because Steve McNair threw and ran the ball like a goddamned blind man, right into my Colts defense. Second play of the game, McNair throws it right into Bob Sanders' hands, who runs it back for a defensive TD. And that was just the first of three INTs for McNair. Of course, because I pretty much suck, I let the Ravens hang around with three Manning INTs as well. But Addai, Manning to Clark for two TDs, and ball control were just too much for the Ravens, who lost it 27-17.

In real life, I know the Colts aren't supposed to win this game, but I think the strengths (Colts O, Ravens D) and weaknesses (Ravens O, Colts D) cancel each other out. And whereas Planet Killer points out the Ravens' offense penchant for coming up with a handful of big plays, I see the Colts defense doing it instead. Pick: Colts, by a nose.

What did I learn from the Eagles-Saints evening matchup? In sum, the Eagles have no offensive plan (this is even with McNabb) and Rextasy's Sex Cannon is nothing compared to Brees', which sprayed 5 TDs all over the field. Oh, and don't fuck around when you have the chance to win the game. In typical Madden style, all I had to do to run out the clock for a 35-28 victory was to kneel down (it wouldn't have even been that close if not for a couple ridiculous 70 yd TD plays for Philly). A Brees INT with 12 seconds to go run back by Jeremiah Trotter for the tying TD, a Brees INT in overtime leading to an Akers FG, and the Saints lose. But shit, the Saints are fun to play with in Madden. Spring semester assignment: lead the Saints to the playoffs in franchise mode. Pick: Saints, by a whole hell of a lot.

KC vs. Indy Deathmatch, Cheerleader Style

With the Colts wildcard playoff game a mere 26 hours away, I felt compelled to write something about my horse (pun intended, I guess) in the playoffs. But I don't think I could bear to rehash everything everyone else has already said about the matchup (insert something about Larry Johnson and a poor run defense here).

Well praise Jesus, FTG readers, because colts.com blesses its faithful with a Cheerleader of the Week--offering yours truly a perfectly innovative way to compare the Ponies and the Team Soon to Lose. Unfortunately, latter said team has no such Cheerleader of the Week, only further proving their inferiority. Luckily, this week's Colts cheerleader of the week is none other than Crystal T. and, by god, I'll be damned if the Chiefs don't have their own Krystal C. Krystal C., you are my Chiefs cheerleader of the week. So with our Patron Saint, USC's Megan looking on, let the Deathmatch begin, sans judgments on beauty, buxomness, "hotness," or "how much I might like to sleep with each one." I am above objectifying cheerleaders. Completely.

Names: I have a tough time giving the edge to either cheerleader here. Krystal with a K is pretty trashy, but really, can I give points to Crystal with a C? They're virtually the same. Tiebreaker: Crystal's "T" connotes the one and only Mr. T., who, without a doubt, would seriously fuck up whoever Mr. C. is. Edge: Crystal T.

Occupations: While Crystal C. is a wonderfully vague "Marketing Consultant," Krystal T. is a--holy fuck, wait while I regain my senses--software engineer. Damn. I like me some smart women. Oh, and fuck marketing. Edge: Krystal T.

Favorite Movie: Krystal T. likes to watch white Italians get fucked up in The Godfather while Crystal C. likes to watch rich white girls do rich white shit in Breakfast at Tiffany's. Edge: Krystal T.

Favorite Food: They'll both love it if you take them on a date to a sushi bar. Christ, what is it with women and sushi (yes, I'm including you, Gage, in "women")? Krystal T. also likes her granny's cooking, though, and who doesn't? I love my grandma's cooking. Edge: Krystal T.

Interests/Hobbies: Crystal C., aside from claiming to like video games (I don't count Dance Dance Revolution or Guitar Hero as legitimate video games, Crystal, in case that's what you meant), likes a veritable cornucopia of old people activities: bird watching, antiquing, gardening, and stamp collecting. Stamp collecting, seriously? Wow. Krystal T., on the other hand, enjoys doubling down in blackjack and making a motherfucker draw four in UNO while watching Family Guy. Me too, Krystal T., me too. Edge: Krystal T.

So there you have it, Krystal T., in a landslide. Congratulations, Krystal T., you have officially been named the winner of the Trout's KC/Indy Cheerleader Deathmatch. Unfortunately, your team will wilt upon exposure to Joseph Addai's manjuice. Colts, 34-27.

I Will Regret This in About 14 Hours...

... but the Colts will beat the Bungles tonight. I'm not saying it will be a blowout, but it will be a victory.

Exhibit A: Cincy has the worst passing defense in the league. Indy, if you haven't heard, has those guys Peyton, Reggie, and Marvin. And now that grandpa Ricky Proehl is in the fold, this shit is foolproof.

Exhibit B: Indy is playing at home. Feel the wrath of the hayseed dome, Bungles! While Cincinnati's hayseed stench is allowed to escape in the open air of Poop Brown Stadium, Ocho Cinco and TJ will surely be overwhelmed by HOOOOOOSIER stench.

Exhibit 3: Indy's league-worst run defense. Don't be fooled: this will be nothing more than a gigantic Bungle mindfuck. Marvin Lewis will decide to hand Rudi (don't call me Huxtable) Johnson the ball approximately 60 times, even inexplicably when the Bengals are down by 17 early in the 4th. Unfortunately Rudi fumbles about 4 times, 2 for Colts TDs. "But they can't defend the run," Marvin whimpers to a mildly upset Ol' Brittle Knees.

Exhibit 4: My Bengals-Colts Madden simulation, played on All-Madden mind you, was a 14 point Colts victory. Adam Vinatieri didn't even have to get his ass up off the bench for a field goal. I just penetrated and scored in the Bungles red zone at will. Like the Bungles were a 2-bit whore.

Exhibit 4A: Pictured above, Jen's nickname is "Pocket"! I'll let you fill in the joke.

Exhibit E: It seems everyone at ESPN and in the national media is all of the sudden on the Bungles bandwagon and jumping off the Colts' sinking ship. This is a sure sign that things are, in fact, exactly the opposite of what douches like Tony Kornheiser and Sterling Sharpe think.

No matter what happens, though, it's almost sure to be better than the rest of the shitty games yesterday. So sit back, relax, and strap it down. Get ready for Theismann to drop some knowledge on your asses tonight.

The Colts Defense Sucks

Original thought, yes, I know. But I don't know that there's much original to say about why these Colts have lost 3 of 4. They can't stop the run. And they haven't been able to stop the run all season. Nor have they been a good defensive team for a long, long time. Somehow, though, the media seems to construe this Week 15 Colts team as fundamentally different from the one that started the season 9-0 before losing to Dallas. Except it isn't.

Granted there are some integral injuries right now--Corey Simon, Bob Sanders, Dallas Clark, Brandon Stokley, to name just a few. But fundamentally this is the same team that doubled up Philly a few weeks ago. Yeah, Philly doesn't have McNabb, but they did have Westbrook for that game, and that didn't stop the Colts from winning. People also seem to forget that the Colts had been playing--and winning--close games all season: 26-21 over the Giants, 31-28 over the Jets, 14-13 over the Titans, 34-31 over the Broncos, 17-16 over Buffalo. Before the wheels fell off last Sunday, they happened to lose a couple of close games: 21-14 to Dallas and 20-17 to Tennessee on a last second field goal. And now they find themselves at 10-3. Ten and three, for Christ's sake, and people are falling over themselves to write this Colts team off. Dipshit Bob Kravitz was on PTI tonight arguing that if the Colts lose to the Bengals Monday night, they're "doomed." He said this with a straight face. I kid you not: "doomed." Doomed to 10-4 and another Division championship on the horizon, maybe.

Here's all I'm saying: the Colts have essentially the same damn team they've had for the past several years. Are they going to the Super Bowl this year? Maybe, but probably not. Losing 3 out of 4 has nothing to do with that, though. Just ask Bengals fans--they were writing the season off after losing 5 of 6 before winning their last 4. Crazy shit just happens in the NFL from week to week. So get over it. And stop inundating me with all-too-typical half-brained doomsday sports analysis. Wait until the playoffs roll around and then talk to me about how the Colts suck.

Manning love fest, running commentary

So since this site basically rips everything off from Bill Simmons or Deadspin or somewhere else (we are, in general, quite unoriginal... just ask our friends), I've decided to do a running commentary of Manning Bowl/Love Fest/Circle Jerk '06. And to make this entry even more Simmons-esque, I'll start by saying I missed the day's NFL action (save for Brady's first-play fumble) because I was at Fenway watching the Sox salvage one game of a 3 game set with Royales. Mark Redman, the Royals "All-Star" was tagged (surprise!), Papi hit a homer, and I ate some fried dough. Not too bad. I spent most of the game staring at the left field scoreboard, willing the White Sox to score runs. It didn't happen. The highlight of my day was standing in line behind some disgusting woman with bad skin wearing a pink Red Sox jersey and her 4 misbehaving children, listening to her bitch about how she just spent $45 on chicken fingers, fries, and cokes. I guess maybe she thought it would only be $40. It was a lovely day at the ballpark.

I also feel it necessary to comment on Gage's "Picks of Confidence." By my count, he's 3-1 after the early games, but I don't really care about that (does anyone but Gage? I didn't think so). What I do have to say is that Indy is easily gonna beat the spread against the Giants; forget about them losing. The two-headed monster that is the Colts backfield will run for 100+ yards (if we have learned anything from Denver the past few years, it should be that it doesn't really matter who the RB is, it's the O-line), Peyton will get his 250 and a couple TDs, Tiki Barber will remember he should be past his prime, and Jeremy Shockey will break both legs. I guess maybe that last one is just something I kinda wish would happen...

7:50. So, as much as I want to watch Football Night in America for the gems Costas and company will dish out, I'm not going to. Flipping past, though, I barely caught Costas saying something about the game tonight being the "Peyton vs. Peyton" game. Either Costas is referring to some internal mental struggle Peyton will go through tonight, or he inadvertently revealed a serious man-crush, perhaps even rivaling Cris Collinsworth's affection for both brothers. I'm leaning towards the latter.

8:13. Nothing says football like Pink with a mullet, singing an uninspiring song. Thank you, NBC.

8:15. Popped open a PBR. Maybe this little blog will help me count.

8:17. My woman has a small orgasm at the mention of the name "Tiki Barber." I'm still waiting to hear "Jeff Saturday."

8:22. In case you forgot, tomorrow is 9/11... let's do justice to the memories of those killed by playing some ball!

8:23. First shot of mommy Manning. Thanks for bringing up the commercial, Al. I had almost forgotten this game was going to be tough on Olivia Manning.

8:25. John Madden has the feeling the Colts are going to come out passing when, indeed, the Colts just came out passing. Good call, John. "Feelings" are often correct when they come after the fact.

8:29. For approximately the 1200th time in the past few years, Madden tells us how the Colts' audibles work... 2 run plays and a pass play sent in to Peyton. Great insight.

8:32. Addai levels a Giants DB on a 10 yard run. The woman says, "nice way to come out in the NFL, eh." Yes, yes it is. And then he promptly gets pummeled by Strahan on the next play.

8:36. The first Vinatieri Colts field goal. Weird, but nice. Farewell, Vanderjagt, you mouth-running kicker, you. You're better off touring with Terrell Owens circus anyway.

8:44. The Colts defense is porous, missing arm tackles left and right. Do Purdue proud, Gilbert Gardner, and tackle somebody, for chrissakes.

8:46. Al Michaels references hot cars and bling. Don't act like those things are foreign to you, Al. I've seen how you and Costas roll.

8:47. Madden, in all his wisdom, pontificates about Eli "jamming it in." Too easy.

8:51. Michaels, riffing on Madden, marvels at Peyton "jamming it in" to Dallas Clark. That's what Colts fans have grown to love watching, Al--Peyton jamming, ramming, penetrating.

9:07. Eric Dickerson = ED = Erectile Dysfunction. Eric Dickerson must love this. I wonder if he goes to bars with Bo Jackson and Joe Theismann, both of whom delight in yelling across the bar, "Yo, ED!" Why I picked Bo and Theismann, I do not know.

9:13. Feely misses a FG. Didn't he miss like 4 or 5 field goals in one game last year? This is why he is not on my fantasy team. Not that I really know what I'm doing in fantasy sports. I got doubled up today... and that's even before my opponent has Tomlinson going. Thanks for nothing, Shaun, thanks for nothing.

9:23. Third shot (at least... oops... thanks to Dan for calling it #4) of the parents' Manning. Archie is non-plussed by the Peyton TD. I think maybe he's watching Grey's Anatomy reruns up there in the luxury box; not sure if he was actually aware there was something going on down on the field.

9:30. Gage points out to me that the home movies prove Peyton was always a crybaby. Good catch. Duly noted.

9:34. Wow, a Hot Shots reference to Emilio and Charlie Sheen. As soon as "Charlie Sheen" popped out of Costas' mouth, I was really pulling for "hooker" to follow. Maybe next time.

9:36. Plaxico Burress is tall and good at volleyball, except with footballs. TD Giants.

10:03. It doesn't matter who runs it, the Giants gain at least 5 yards a rush. Where have you gone, defense? Isn't it about time you created a turnover?

10:05. Shockey comes up gimpy after making his first catch. Perhaps a broken leg isn't too much to wish for. Scratch that. Shockey TD. John Madden wets himself with joy.

10:07. I remain confused as to why these Pepsi-machine-as-football-player commercials continue to get made. Is Pepsi getting fan mail from people saying, "Please make more of those. I was a Coke drinker all my life until I saw that commercial. Make more of them so the world will know the wonders of Pepsi."? I think not. Please stop making them. And please stop ruining people like Reggie Bush. Thank you.

10:09. John Madden marvels at how he could possibly "get his mouth around" all three Manning cocks at once (I can only imagine that's what he's referring to). I don't know how you do it either, John, but you do. You do. And that's what makes Sunday Night Football worth watching.

10:30. After a pretty clean game (save for numerous drive killing Giants penalties), 2 quick turnovers in succession. Maybe each Manning decided they wanted the other to win.

10:36. Parents shot count: approximately 7. We're on pace to obliterate my over-under.

10:42. Andrea Kremer is wearing enough makeup to look like a harlot. A no good harlot. What happened to the days of Melissa Stark?

10:46. So I'm noticing that Jim Finn is a Giant now. How are Al and John not pouncing on the fact that he used to be a Colt? This story should rival the Manning brother rivalry. No question.

10:56. Gage begs me to post the following: My issue with all this Manning vs. Manning bullshit is that it's way more over hyped than Ronde vs. Tiki would ever be. And those two aren't just brother's, they're fucking twins! And, they actually get on the field at the same time. Peyton will never tackle Eli, but Ronde could legitimately injure his own twin brother. How's that for irony? -Gage

10:57. I tell Gage it's because the Mannings are white. And also because they are both QBs. Both of these are things America loves: white dudes and dudes who put their hands on other dudes' asses.

11:04. Huge offensive pass interference call that leads to an INT on the next play. Contrary to Madden's and Michaels' opinion that the call was bullshit (as you could see Coughlin mouthing on the sideline), it did seem to me like the receiver pushed off with his forearm. Give us another angle on that, NBC. And yes, I am a Colts fan. Whatever.

11:17. The Colts fail to get a key first down that would enable them to run out the clock. This can only be an attempt to either ruin Gage's bet or boost ratings while trying to lose the game. My money's on Gage leaning towards the former.

11:22. It's always nice to see a game end with extraordinarily poor clock management. Way to go, Giants (especially you Jeremy Shockey. I'm glad you kept your legs unbroken so that you could stay inbounds like a complete freaking idiot).

That's all she wrote, kids. Good day.