"Can We Tell You About Freddy Sanchez Again?": 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates Season Preview

I really don't remember the Pirates ever being good. Apparently, though, they actually were good once upon a time. They actually won the NL East three straight years, 1990-1992. Coincidentally (or not), 1993 was the first year Barry Bonds played out on the west coast. Since then, the Pirates have been perennial bottom dwellers of the now NL Central, finishing in second place only once, while finishing in the bottom two teams a whopping seven times. Well, at least they have the Steelers. My own personal enmity with playing the Pirates manifests itself mostly in the guise of George Grande. For those of you not regular FSN Ohio viewers, Grande insists not only on saying ridiculous bullshit, and then repeating it over and over. When the Reds play the Pirates, Grande repeatedly refers to them as the "Buck-O's". Get it? Pirates -> Buccaneers -> Bucks -> Buck-O's (cue sarcastic laugh). It's as if he refuses to even say the actual team name, or he is convinced that he is utterly hilarious. This is infuriating to me and makes me dread Pittsburgh games.

I'm actually watching the Reds/Buck-O's game as I type this and trying to feel some empathy for everyone in the sub-freezing temperatures. It sucks out there. I was there Wednesday night and it was fucking snowing. The Pirates aren't really instilling any confidence in me. I don't get this lineup. Is anybody supposed to drive in runs? I like Jason Bay despite his looking like a 12 year old, but I'm not completely sold on Freddy Sanchez. Sure he won the batting title last year, hitting .344, but his OBP was only .378 and he only walked 31 times and only stole 3 bases. Not exactly your prototypical leadoff hitter*. As a point of reference, Adam Dunn hit only .264 last year but his OBP was .365 and he did have those 40 HR to soften the blow.

With all due respec to Zach Duke, the pitching staff is crummy too. I don't have the energy to go into why, I think you know why. They don't have good players. Get over it. So, without anything more to say about this team, I'm picking them to finish last in the division in 2007.

*This thought was inspired by Chris Welsch on the FSN broadcast, who is far less loathesome than George Grande

"Hey, Did You Hear We Won The World Series?": 2007 St. Louis Cardinals Cardinals Season Preview

Oh Dear God! The Cardinals started the season 0-3. Bring out the brooms, I'm calling for the season oh-fer. I'm pretty sure 162 consecutive losses would be a record for a team coming off a World Championship. Remember, you heard it here first..... What's that? The Cards have already won a game since getting swept to open the series? Well shit, there goes my whole post. (Okay, Gage, think for a minute how to spin this.... annnnd I've got it). Exactly. This just proves my point. It's still early in the season to get upset over one game or one series, and thus not too late for a season preview. It's only too late for me to predict zero-game winners, and of course I would never do that.

That paragraph sucks. Sorry. Moving on...

I have a hard time mustering up emotions towards the Cardinals. I know they're good and they constantly beat up on the Reds, but I don't hate them. Pujols is the best player in the league, but doesn't seem like an asshole. I've never even heard a Chris Carpenter quote. Plus, I've got this whole "enemy's enemy is my friend" complex in reference to the Cubs. Apparently the two teams are hated rivals. There's no reported evidence of Cards on Cubs fan violence, or vice versa, but I'll take their words for it. What I do know is that I personally hate the Cubs (and by extension their fan base in general) so I always appreciate when the Cardinals demoralize them.

But, I just don't know what kind of job they'll do this year at that one. The year after winning a World Series is always an awkward one. Just ask the 2006 White Sox. They lost Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver (who admittedly shouldn't even be on on a MLB roster). Those first two guys combined for 26 wins last year. That's a lot to give up. Interestingly, they both went to NL Central teams. If either has a big year it could really come back to bite St. Louis on the ass. But, I guess the bigger question is: who's left? Well, besides Carpenter there's Kip Wells, who I think is better than his reputation. I mean, he's not terrible but nobody seems to want him very badly. Not sure he's a #2 though. Behind him I see some cause for concern.
Both Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper just got their first career starts. Looper is a career reliever with a career 103 saves (and one glorious blown save on opening day 2005 in the 'Nati). When was the last time you heard about a reliever successfully moving to starter late in a career? Nobody comes to my mind.

So, Chris Carpenter and his merry band of rejects are hoping that the lineup can score some runs. But, where is it going to come from? Pujols, of course. And, Rolen probably. This is where I'd like to claim that you can't win with Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein up the middle but of course that would be silly (see Anaheim). But, really there's not much here to work with. When it comes down to it, this team doesn't have enough studs to get over the hump again. I'm saying they finish 3rd in the division.

You see, it would be this mat that you would put on the floor...

and would have different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could JUMP TO." Obviously, Jay Mariotti has been taking notes from Office Space numbnut Tom Smykowski. As much as I hate to validate anything that spews forth from the Sun-Times resident Heiney bird and ghhhhhh...how I hate this show... Around the Horn talking head (because we all know it's just the attention he craves), the sheer idiocy of his most recent Sox-bashing column is pretty difficult to ignore.

Now, Boise Wants Jay does a better and more consistent job of bashing Jay than I could ever or would want to do, and even Deadspin does a pretty admirable job of following his idiocy. And while Jay the Joke essentially beat me to the punch on this one, I'd like to expand a little bit more on precisely how nonsensical this sky-is-falling numbnuttery really is.

Says Mariotti, "Well, swallow this: The starting rotation stinks. I can say that smirkily after watching a raggedy Jose Contreras [...] I can say that snarkily after watching a wild Jon Garland." I suppose at least Mariotti has a semblance of a grasp on the one register in which he writes columns--smirk and snark. But that's about all he has a firm grasp on.

He goes on to say "I realize these are only two games," but it's not clear that he really does. I guess now that the Sox are 2-2 following good performances from Nick Masset and Javy Vazquez, we can expect a bold Mariotti column prognosticating a .500 finish, calling for Masset to replace Contreras in the rotation, and begging Kenny to throw more money at Vazquez so the Sox can lock him up beyond his current 3-year contract.

But that's not even the most baffling element of the column. Mariotti seems to indicate that the White Sox (his ire is directed at Ozzie, Kenny, and Jerry) run the club in a egotistical, spendthrift fashion--not spending enough on the open market and not getting enough in return for trades. Nevermind Freddy Garcia's arm is ready to fall off. No matter that the talent in return for McCarthy is already starting to pay off. Nevermind the fact that there was no talent on the market better, for the price, than what the Sox already had in house.

I guess he missed the memo that the South Siders have the 5th highest payroll in baseball, nearly $10 million more than even the Soriano/Lilly/Marquis buying Cubs (oh, that's right, he doesn't bother to do any research). Despite the high payroll, I guess the Sox really should have gone out and spent money on guys like Gil Meche and Ted Lilly this offseason--they won their first starts, after all. Check back at the All-Star break, Jay, and we'll see how the Sox rotation stacks up against these chumps.

It's really a wonder to me that Mariotti is still employed by the Sun-Times, particularly considering the legions of sports bloggers out there who regularly write more informed, thoughtful, and well-written posts than virtually any Mariotti column. Sure, controversy sells... to a point. But doesn't it seem like there should be some sort of law of diminishing returns here? Maybe that just makes me some sort of naive idealist, but how many people must Mariotti make want to go all Office Space copier on his ass before the Sun-Times realizes that this guy doesn't incite rage because he writes anything worthwhile? Rather, he's proven consistently that he's merely a petulant, juvenile, ignorant, self-absorbed little man with a penchant for writing and reasoning on a sixth grade level. Ladies and gentlemen, the face of the Chicago Sun-Times sports section!

I'll let Jay himself close out this post, because, well, he's better at making himself look stupid than I am, as he's clearly and delightfully unfamiliar with the concept of "the pot calling the kettle black." The coup de grace, boys and girls: "It might help if Ozzie, Kenny and Jerry would just shut up. All these people do is yap, and by comparison, the women on 'The View' are pleasing to the ears." Yeah, Jay, riiiiight...

*thanks to reader Dave for the heads-up on this one

Baseball is not a 30-degree game

I'm sure there have been columns aplenty written about this year after year after year (I think I remember a Bring the Crazy, nee Planet Killer, post about this awhile ago), but I'm going to write about how stupid it is for baseball to play games in 30 degree weather to start the season.

Let me just say to start that I'm all for cutting the regular season to 150 games--or even shorter. I'm just skeptical that MLB and Bud Selig, in his infinite wisdom, are even entertaining the idea of giving up the revenue from those 12+ games. So what are our other options? The best one, it seems to me, is to force cold weather teams on the road for the first week and a half of the season.

Today the White Sox-Twins game was postponed due to cold weather. Why weren't they playing in Minnesota's cozy Hefty-bag dome? The Indians-Mariners game was postponed due to snow (Update: this is even more ridiculous when you consider what happened in this game, called in the 5th inning). Why weren't they playing in Seattle, where the weather is milder and there's a partially retractable roof? Yesterday, the Tigers-Blue Jays game was postponed due to cold weather. Why weren't they playing up in Toronto's dome? And that's not even counting games that were played despite the brutally cold weather in Philadelphia and New York. Because it's not really just about the postponements; the games actually played in inclement weather are almost worse. Pitchers can't grip the ball, hitters can't feel their bats, fielders can't feel their hands, and the fans are miserable. It's just not the way baseball should be played.

Breaking the teams in each league down geographically, it's nearly mind boggling why this continues to be a problem. To wit:

Warm weather/ domed/roofed AL teams (7)-LA Angels, Oakland A's, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Cold weather/ open air AL teams (7)-Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals

Warm weather/ domed/roofed NL teams (8)-Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, LA Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
Cold weather/ open air NL teams (8)-New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies

Yeah, a lot of teams from the East and Central would have to open on the road in the West. Yeah, Seattle won't necessarily be warmer than Baltimore or San Fran warmer than Washington, D.C. But when you see games, as you have this week, with the Twins visiting the White Sox, the DRays visiting the Yankees, and the Mariners visiting the Indians, it just makes so little sense to have those games in the colder cities. Stadium snowglobes should be more novelty than reality.

No, this doesn't have to be a hard and fast rule. You wouldn't want the White Sox to open on the road in perpetuity. God forbid the almighty Yankees have to open in Tampa. And you wouldn't want to see Cincinnati's precious parade tradition be ended. But maybe the cold weather teams should open at home only once every 3 or 4 years--and then promptly head out West after a quick 2 or 3 game set. I don't really know. But I do know that I don't want to see Ozzie Guillen wearing a sock hat over his baseball cap. Because that's just dumb.

"Ben Sheets is Finally Really Good, Maybe": Milwaukee Brewers 2007 Season Preview

One game does not an ace make, but apparently Ben Sheets is the shit. Assuming this is true, if he can pitch like he did in 2002, he might just win 17 to 20 games. This bodes well for all those folks who made the Brewers the en vogue pick to win the division this year. This got me thinking: "why?" Deep, I know. Well, the first thing that jumps out at me from their depth chart is a certain degree of veteran depth all over the field. If, say, Rickie Weeks or Corey Hart doesn't pan out you've got Craig Counsell, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix on the bench. Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking to win a world series with Those three guys as my anchors, but they are certainly good hole-pluggers in a loooong baseball season. Of course, I can't help but notice that the starters on this team aren't really going to blow any wind up your skirt (assuming you want wind blown up your skirt). Bill Hall did hit 35 HR last year, but they traded away Carlos Lee and now don't appear to have anybody in the everyday lineup who can even sniff hitting .300. Doesn't every team need at least one guy who gets on base regularly? Maybe Rickie Weeks keeps getting hits .300 and scores 100 runs, and maybe Prince Fielder and Bill Hall both break the 30 HR barrier, but I'm not sure how confident I am that any of those things happen. That said, far be it for me to criticize this young talent. They should certainly be fun to watch.

Heading to the mound is a slightly different story. Sheets is nasty, but has shown to be injury prone the past two years. Chris Capuano is basically a just-above-average type pitcher. And, of course there's Jeff Suppan who parlayed a World Series victory into a $42 million contract for a career 4.61 ERA pitcher. Congratulations, Jeff, you just hit the lottery. Which raises a big question for a few teams this year: what do you expect out of your wildly overpriced aging free-agent pitcher? It's a total crapshoot when you look at guys like Suppan, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly and Jason Schmidt. However, resting on their laurels, trying not to get hurt and coasting through the season appears like the most likely option. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seemed like every one of these contracts made most baseball fans who are paying attention look like they just sucked the juice out of a lemon. I hope I'm wrong, because there's nothing more disheartening than seeing a highly-paid athlete taking plays/games/seasons off. But, what Suppan brings to the table remains to be seen. Maybe we'll get some indication tonight in his first start.

This Brewers team is full of questions with a young lineup and a pitching staff that could really go any number of ways. I think this is why people are picking them so often. Every writer wants to be the guy who says "See? I knew Bill Hall would hit 40 homers this year. I'm a genius and you're an idiot." Thus, I'm not picking them. I'm going to say that they'll stay in the Wild Card chase until the last week of the season but eventually fall short of the playoffs. Still, lots of hope for the future with this team.

"Tell Roger We'll Pay Him Whatever He Wants": 2007 Houston Astronomicals Season Preview

As I write this, Houston is playing Pittsburgh in their second game of the season. What that means is that I'm running dreadfully late on my season previews. Fortunately for all concerned, it really doesn't matter. I do have the advantage of telling you that apparently Brad Lidge still sucks and blows saves. Okay, maybe he doesn't completely suck, but you have to think the Astros' fans hold their collective breath whenever he comes into the game. Of course the Astros are far from the only team in the league with what I'm going to call the "Armando Benitez Effect" (n) - a sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach when your favorite team's closer du jour enters the game and you just know he's due to melt down at any moment. Other players inducing this ailment include: David Weathers, Ryan Dempster, Fransisco Cordero, Jason Isringhausen and Huston Street. If you like, take a gander at last year's blown save leaders. The weird thing about this discussion is that I don't necessarily think you NEED a good closer to win. Last year the Cardinals only got one save in the World Series and that came from Adam Wainright who has three regular-season saves in his entire career! The White Sox had Bobby Jenks in '05 who came out of nowhere and the Red Sox revived Keith Foulke for one solid season the year before.

As for the rest of the 'Stros, I just can't see how their management expects them to be any better than last year when they just barely finished above even-money at 82-80. You have to love Berkman and Carlos Lee, but Adam Everett and Morgan Ensburg hit a whopping .239 and .235 last season, respectively. Roy Oswalt could potentially win the Cy Young, but there's no real number two unless you're getting fired up about 40 year old Woody Williams. What this all points to is another July run at winning the Roger Clemens lottery. But, he keeps getting older and the Astros are going to have to be in the hunt when Rocket season rolls around. They better not get off to a slow start or this season could turn into the Hunt for Red October before they know it.

None of this is to take away from my favorite thing all-time about the Astros, the retro uniforms. I can still remember somehow lucking into lower-deck (ahhh the "blue seats" in Riverfront) Reds/Astros tickets as a kid while they were still wearing this ridiculous garb. You have to think they're due a good 5-10 wins on MLB throwback days every year just by distracting their opponents. Of course, I have no proof of this. Somebody put the Hardball Times on this one.

At the end of the year with this team, I think it comes down to what I said earlier. They just aren't any better. What about this team makes you think they will win more games than they did before? Yes, the NL Central is weak, but it was last year too. These guys will tease you occasionally, but end up middle of the pack in the division this year. And I'm not just saying that because they're 0-1.

7 Things trout Learned After One Day of Baseball

1. Mark Buehrle has the power to severely fuck over anyone who crosses him. You want to break his streak of five straight Opening Day starts? Fine. Go ahead. But you'll embarrass yourself to the tune of 7 earned runs in one inning.

2. This may be the year for promising pitchers to finally realize their promise. Tittle500 had to be please to see his boy Ben Sheets, who's threatened to be a fantasy star since 2001 but only turned in one dominating season (2004), pitch lights out. Similarly, King Felix, who was disappointing last year, is on pace for roughly 350 strikeouts this year. Just hand the Mariners the Divisional title already, and crown me King of the Prognosticators.

3. Gil Meche is better than Curt Schilling. This means that Mr. Meche deserves about a $2.5 million raise. Pay up, Royals.

4. Baltimore and Tampa Bay continue to find ways to lose. It's gonna be a heated battle for the cellar this year.

5. Adam Dunn is "country strong." Whatever that means. Carlos Zambrano may be simultaneously underrated and overrated. Whatever that means.

6. My disdain for Joe Morgan has softened. Am I going soft in my old age?

7. I'd rather watch the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim play the Texas Rangers than the Ohio State Buckeyes play the Florida Gators.

One Half-Inning and My Cautious Optimism Is Gone.

I hate you and all your Indian friends, Grady Sizemore. And while I'm griping, I'm kinda pissed Mark Buehrle isn't starting today. Damn you, Contreras. Letting the Indians bat around and put a 5 spot on the board is not the way to start 2007. Dammit Dammit Dammit.

"Was 2005 a Fluke? The Pundits Seem to Think So": Chicago White Sox 2007 Season Preview

Well I don't. None of the ESPN.com prognosticators have the ChiSox finishing above 3rd in the division. The PECOTA projection for the ChiSox has them finishing with 72 wins, 9 games below .500. Everyone in the blogger world is squawking about the idiocy of having Podsednik and Erstad at the top of the lineup. Seemingly it's all gloom and doom on the South Side. Well, fuck that.

I'm choosing to be cautiously optimistic this year. Maybe that'll work out better than the unbridled optimism I had last year. Yes, Podsednik kinda sucked last year, both in left and at the plate. But I tend to agree with Foul Balls' guarded optimism on the Podsednik front; really all I want from him is to be smarter about stealing bases and not look lost in left field. I think this is certainly doable. He doesn't have to be Jose Reyes at the plate for the Sox to win, he just needs to get his head right.

No, I don't agree with starting Erstad instead of Brian Anderson in center, either from a defensive or offensive perspective. I think BA was unjustly relegated to Ozzie's doghouse, and it's continued on into this season. But I think Erstad will be a passable defender. I just hope he doesn't sabotage this team because he's still pissed that AJ gamed the umpires in the 2005 ALCS (remember that, B.O.B.? What a freaking game...)

Besides, offense is not where this team needs to worry. I'm not saying the 2007 squad will equal the production of last year's team, but the production will be there: Thome, Konerko, Dye, Crede, and the rest of the crew will produce runs no matter if Pods and Erstad sport OBPs in the .330 range. The World Series champs scored 127 less runs and won 9 more games than the 2006 playoff-less vintage.

The problem is that the 2006 pitching staff gave up 149 more runs than the 2005 staff. Garland's ERA jumped a full run from 3.50 to 4.51. Contreras's jumped from 3.61 to 4.27. Worst of all by far, Buehrle's jumped from 3.12 to an astronomical 4.99. I don't have to tell you that this year is Buehrle's walk year and his affinity for the Cardinals has been swirling around the rumor mill for years now. Now, I don't put a whole lot of stock in guys putting up career years in their contract years (although it'd be nice, considering Jermaine Dye is in his walk year too), but I do put some stock in a career 3.83 ERA pitcher being able to post an ERA a hell of a lot closer to 4. I haven't seen him pitch this Spring, but the pessimists over at SSS see some reason for optimism. And if Garland and Contreras can pull their heads out of their asses and do the same, the Sox are in business even if Vazquez and Danks post mediocre 4.50-5 ERAs. Do your magic, Coop.

I'm not saying a return to the Series is in store, but I do think the Sox are flying under the radar again this year. Which is right where they were in 2005. They've certainly got enough talent to put together a playoff run in a division which, I think, is a bit weaker than people admit anymore. I'm gonna miss watching this 95-win, playoff-bound club with Hawk and DJ this year... after thirteen years of getting to see this team everyday, it's just not going to be the same following them from RedSoxNationLand.

"Remember How Josh Beckett Used to be Good?": Boston Red Sox 2007 Season Preview

Yup, it was way back in 2005 when he wore that Marlins uniform. As much as people have been talking about Matsuzaka's US debut and the effects of Papelbon's move back into the pen, I think the key to this pitching staff may be Beckett. On a staff with an aging Schilling, a rookie Matsuzaka, a knuckleballer Wakefield, and a converted reliever Tavarez, I think Beckett needs to go out and give the Sox 20-25 quality starts and a sub-4.50 ERA this year to anchor the rotation.

Will he bounce back from a 2006 ERA north of 5? Is he a casualty of moving from the NL East to the AL East? Did he choke in the Boston sports pressure cooker? His strikeouts were down, his walks were up, and he gave up a ton of homers (he gave up 36 bombs last year, second only in baseball to Carlos Silva's 38--I think it's safe to say the Sox thought they were getting a pitcher slightly better than Carlos Silva from the Marlins). Someone probably knows what was wrong with Beckett, but I don't. Even though I live in Boston, I've kept my head in the sand when it comes to Red Sox coverage.

The bullpen looks a little suspect leading up to Papelbon, and as much as it sounds weird to say, I think the lineup will really benefit from having J.D. Drew in there (not a good deal for the money, maybe, but a good move in terms of offensive production on a fairly weak lineup outside Manny and Papi). I could write more about Manny's and Papi's man-love, the error-prone middle infield, and the wildcards that are Mike Lowell and Coco Crisp, but screw it. Like I said, I think Beckett is the key to this team. He pitches like he's capable of, then the Sox take the division; he sputters, you could see another third place finish.

Besides, this baseball preview thing is limping to a close, and really I'm just excited to watch baseball rather than write about it right now. It's time for the Cardinals to embark on another 83 win World Championship--sit back, relax, and strap it down. Short and sweet ChiSox preview tomorrow, folks.