Your Monday Morning NCAA Riddle

Back to the MLB previews later today, but first some basketball. I only managed to catch a small bit of the Purdue game this weekend, after it was already out of reach, but I was unlucky enough to see the Kentucky game in its entirety. Now that's what I call a piss-poor performance. Anyway, it got me thinking because Purdue went out and did all they could with a solid 23 point drubbing of Big Ten bottom-feeders Northwestern while Kentucky continued their downward spiral towards total mediocrity against Florida. What it got me thinking about is which team really deserves to go to the NCAA tournament more (assuming the selection was made today).

It's generally assumed that UK is in and Purdue is tiptoeing around on the bubble, but the first thing you notice about these teams is identical 20-10 (9-7) records. Yet, still, Kentucky is a "lock" according to everybody who doesn't matter. Okay, so surely Kentucky has some of these "marquee" wins to their credit, right? Well, no. For a week or so now the announcers have loved pointing out that this could be the first season in something like 30 years that Kentucky hasn't beaten a ranked team. Both teams beat Indiana (both at home, UK in December and Purdue in February) and at least that win was in-conference for the Boilers. UK lost twice to Florida, Tennessee and Vandy (!!!) while Purdue had to play OSU twice, at Wisconsin (where they hung tough) and pounded MSU at home. Plus, the SEC is down this year (after Florida) and the Big Ten has an argument for two number one seeds.

Look, I hope both teams get in, but the only thing I can tell here is that the Wildcats are getting preferential treatment based on name only. This sort of thing happens every year, but Purdue is certainly no Drexel or Winthrop. Of course, all of that being said, if MSU 21-10 (8-8) gets in over Purdue with a worse conference record I might be out on a ledge somewhere.

(Thanks to the J&C for this awesome picture of David Teague's senior day afro. And God said "let there be an awesome 'fro." And it was good.)

"David Wells Requests A Jelly-Filled": San Diego Padres 2007 Season Preview

Here's what I know about the Padres: last year they had a couple of old guys in Mike Piazza and David Wells (bad knees and big belly). Sadly, Piazza fled for the safe confines of playing DH up the road in Oakland. This is probably because is body is breaking down, but it could have something to do with the Castro District (the truth is, Tim Hardaway is a Padres fan). This year they managed to fill that void by bringing in a brand new old guy, none other than Greg Maddux. I can only imagine that Maddux will put a damper on Wells' fun in the clubhouse, thus killing the chemistry of the team. Sometimes a pitching staff needs a three day bender, you know? Of course I wouldn't be opposed to an Odd Couple style reality show featuring the two of them. "In this week's Curveballs Greg complains because David's vodka drinking is distracting him from his Learn Portugese in Your Spare Time book. Hilarity ensues." Gold Jerry, pure gold. Don't you internet assholes try to steal that idea either. It's mine.

Anyway, on to the rest of the team. Frankly, I'm confused. This is the team that won (by tiebreaker, for the record) the NL West last year? It seems to me that they lost their best hitter in Piazza. I guess this Adrian Gonzalez kid had a good year last year, but the kid hit .227 in 43 games in the show in '05 and then comes out and hits .304 over the full season last year? I'm not saying he can't reproduce that, but let's just say I'm skeptical. So, then you have Gonzo and one of the Giles brothers hitting 3-4 in the lineup. Can no one put together a decent lineup in the NL anymore? Maybe I'm just being pessimistic about everybody this season, but this lineup is doing nothing to inspire me. That said, I like the pitching staff. Maddux has become a serviceable journeyman pitcher late in his career putting up numbers good enough that nobody complains every fifth day. And, I've come this far without mentioning Jake Peavey, Clay Hensley and Chris Young who somehow all managed to come out of last season with 11 wins, and all had numbers that probably deserved better than that.

Where do I think they'll finish? Well, I guess somebody has to win the division and..... you know what? Fuck it. I'm changing my previous prediction for the Dodgers. I have LA winning the division and saying San Diego finishes second. This is my blog, deal with it.

"Whoa... It's 2007 and not 1999? Damn. Why Did We Sign Sammy Sosa, Again?": Texas Rangers 2007 Season Preview

This ain't Dubya's Texas Rangers, but the biggest names they added in the offseason are guys whose better days are a lot closer to 1998 when Bush cashed out than they are to today. Case in point: Eric Gagne, Kenny Lofton, and the aforementioned Sammy Sosa. OK, Gagne's stretching that a bit, but you have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the dominant, uninjured Gagne. It's a good thing they've got Akinori Otsuka ready to take over the closer's role if Gagne goes down. Kenny Lofton's nearly on the wrong side of 40. So is Sammy Sosa, who is also most definitely on the wrong side of that pesky performance-enhancing drugs rule. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Texas Rangers!

Of course, the Rangers also have Michael Young, Mark Teixeira, and Hank Blalock, all of whom had significant drops in production last year. They better hope those guys bounce back and have better years this year (let's all take note if Michael Young balloons to 250 pounds of veiny muscle), because it's going to be the same old story for the Rangers otherwise: not enough hitting to make up for crappy pitching. They're on the Yankees plan, except with a lineup that's roughly half as good.

The rotation is craptacular, headed by Kevin Millwood and headhunter Vicente Padilla (fuck you, Vicente Padilla!). Brandon McCarthy goes from fighting for a fifth spot in the White Sox rotation to securely holding down the third spot on the Rangers. That should tell you something. With last year's beanball hijinks and the apparent bad blood between McCarthy and the Sox, the couple series between these two teams should at least be interesting. Cubs fans seem to like the idea of Kenny Williams stealing B-Mac's woman. Whatever. As if Kenny couldn't do better than that.

My money's on Ozzie getting tossed in any game Padilla starts. I also look for AJ Pierzynski to play some mind games with Brandon McCarthy when he's at the plate, TNA wrestling style. Or maybe they'll just take a cue from Donald Trump and set up a friendly wager that the loser of the battle (AJ if he strikes out, B-Mac if he gives up an extra base hit) will shave his head. Can't wait. Or maybe I can.

So since I'm taking a big crap on the Rangers season and picking them to finish last, behind even the Mariners, what do they have going for them? Two words: Ron Washington. This man is apparently some sort of baseball Jesus (at least compared to Buck Showalter), who's got ex-Athletics from Jermaine Dye to Barry Zito (well, that didn't pan out... but whatever) wanting to play for him. Of course, all that talk is just talk--but I think we do know that Ron Washington is a good, if somewhat goofy lookin' guy. Rangers fans better hope he's some sort of magician, though, if they want to see the plus side of 81 wins this year.

"And The Award Goes To": 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers Season Preview

In honor of last night's annual Hollywood circle jerk, aka the Oscars, here's a few awards of my own to those men of the Tinseltown diamond, the Dodgers...

Best terrible story I just made up about the origin of the team's name:
Did you know that the original Dodgers were made up of a rag-tag bunch of WWI draft dodgers? They traveled around and played semi-pro teams for whatever money they could get. Constantly on the run from the authorities, not only did they not have names on the back of their jerseys, but they all wore the number 12 in order to preserve anonymity. The players traveled by the light of the moon often riding in train cars posing as hobos and winos until the war ended and the team just so happened to be in Brooklyn. A franchise was born. Jeff Kent still wears the number 12 as an homage to the original team. Jeff Kent has a real respect for the game like that because Jeff Kent loves baseball.

Best part of a deal nobody is talking about
This has to go to the deal for Jason Schmidt. The Dodgers decided to give Schmidt, who's 34, a three-year deal worth $47 million and "lost" in the Barry Zito derby when he got seven years and a ridiculous $126 million from the Giants. Now, Zito is a perfectly good pitcher, but I don't know how much money I want riding on the left arm of a soft throwing curveball pitcher. Schmidt, on the other hand is more of a power pitcher and averages over a strikeout per nine innings better than Zito over his career (7.96 vs. 6.90) and in 2004 averaged over 10 K/9, numbers Zito could never imagine touching, even in his Cy Young Award year. Now that we agree that Schmidt is more of a power pitcher, I guess I'm saying look around at the pitchers who stick around after they're over the hill: Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz are all power pitchers. The only guy who comes to mind (sorry if I'm missing somebody, my research department is out today) that doesn't throw hard is Maddux, and nobody is like Maddux. I just think I'd rather have the 34 year old who can still throw hard for three years over the 28 year old who never threw hard for seven years. Okay, my acceptance speech is dragging, let's move on...

Best "Holy Crap, that's impresive" moment
I've been saving this one for the Dodgers rotation featuring Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Randy Wolf (followed by "wait and see"). Now that's a rotation to be proud of. Wolf is somewhat of a wildcard here, but he's on his second year back after surgery so I'd say there's room for optimism. I'd say you can pencil in somewhere in the 40 wins range for the top three combined (last year 43). That's a solid foundation to build a season on. I like this staff.

Rip down the "No Pepper" sign award
Boy, this team better be practicing their bunting and hit-and-run scenarios. There is NO power to be seen in this lineup. Let me put that another way: Nomar Garciparra and JD Drew (now gone) led the team in homers last year with 20 each. Twenty! And that's out of your formerly-athletic-now-first-baseman. And with their aquisition of Luis Gonzalez the outfield goes like this: Gonzalez, Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier. And this is coming from me, a lifelong NL fan who loves the "small ball" style. But, if you're going to have Nomar and Kent hitting 3-4, I'm going to be a little more nervous if you need a run in the bottom of the ninth. Maybe that's just me. Probably not though.

Best managerial job of not being noticed
That's right Grady Little. I have to give you some credit. After your quasi-disastrous stretch with the Red Sox, you've done a nice job of keeping a low profile and staying out of Bill Simmons columns, for the most part. I had even forgotten that you still had this job. Plus, I'm really happy you and Mr. Hamm get to spend some more QT together in the locker room. So cute, you two.

Prediction performance by a terrible gambler
That's right, I'm giving this one to myself. Gosh, this is a tough division to predict. Could be another one down to the wire. But, since I've committed to making a prediction I'm going to say that the Dodgers finish second in the division and are in the Wild Card race. I haven't decided who wins that one yet. Jeeze, I'm only on my third team, cut a guy some slack.

Well, that lasted less than four hours, so I hope it wasn't too painful.

(Update: I've changed my prediction in my San Diego post. Sorry for the confusion readers.)

Wednesday Wrap-Up

It was the best of times... it was the worst of times. Or it was just a Wednesday with some interesting sports happenings. First, Liverpool at Barcelona. This Champions League clash was a pretty big deal to me and the rest of the world who care about soccer. Frankly, I don't think a lot of people were giving the Reds much chance in the knockout stage of the competition after this tough draw. Plus there was this ridiculous story about Craig Bellamy going all Office Space copier on John Arne Riise with a golf club during a recent training session. Of course, the whole thing turned out to be not true and both started yesterday in what turned out to be a HUGE 2-1 victory for Liverpool. All in all, it was a game played with moments of brilliance and moments of stupidity by both teams, there were some bad calls both ways. And, it just so happened that the two goal scorers were Bellamy (who celebrated with a big golf swing) and Riise.

For anyone not familiar with Champions League format, in the knockout stage each team in the matchup plays a home game and the team with the most total goals moves on. The really interesting thing is that the first tiebreaker is goals scored on the road. So, if Barcelona comes to Liverpool in a couple of weeks and wins 1-0, it would still not be enough due to the 2 to 1 advantage in away goals. After what has been a moderately successful season (at best) with the Reds never really competitive for the Premiership title, this is a bigtime victory and I'm officially excited again.

Elsewhere, in yet another game that wasn't on TV in my area, Purdue got their asses handed to them at Iowa. You just can't afford to lose by 19 at this point in the season if you want to make the tournament. With three games remaining, I'm thinking they have to win them all or really impress everybody in the Big Ten tournament. At least those aren't technically road games, because this team continues to roll over like a dog getting its belly scratched away from Mackey. Ugh. Not much more to say about this game, but I don't think today that Purdue is a tournament-worthy team. Maybe in a week I'll feel differently. I hope.

"Pass Me My Inhaler": 2007 Colorado Rockies Season Preview

That's right intrepid reader, we're firmly rooted in the NL West. So, climb on the back of my Vespa and hold on tight because we're taking a trip up into the mountains of one of our nation's squarest states Colorado. Woosh!

Welcome to Denver, home of the only team in the league that has a built in excuse for losing. Lucky bastards. Surely you're all aware that I'm talking about the "thin air." Supposedly, two things happen at a mile above sea level, the ball travels farther and breaking balls don't, well break (science time: both due to less air resistance). Now, I've got the solution to the whole problem but we'll get to that in a second. The truth of the matter is that you can't really blame a condition that happens to affect both teams equally as being a disadvantage. Sorry. Now, the argument becomes that they can't get pitchers to come there because the park will hurt their stats. This is ridiculous for two reasons. Anybody who looks around the league sees the good teams developing their own pitching. Unless you have a problem convincing players to move from AAA to the majors, this avoids any problems. Plus, players (and especially slimeball agents) will follow the money. If the Rockies offered Gil Meche $56 million (god knows he deserves it) he would already own a chalet on the slopes.

I guess what I'm saying here is they need to stop complaining and put a competitive team on the field. Of course, if you're not willing to quit crying and are looking for the quick and dirty solution to the whole problem, you've come to the right place. It's oh so simple. You want the air to be a little thicker, put a nice big polluting factory or two next to the stadium. Before you know it, it's going to be like pitching in a sandstorm. That'll put some snap on your slider. Just be sure to hold your breath until you can get back to the oxygen machine in the dugout.

Taking an actual look at the team... well... it's pretty simple. The mountain men have some real studs in the field. Your Matt Hollidays and Garrett Atkinses of the world are going to produce as you'd expect and develop nicely. Plus, they somehow managed not to trade Todd Helton this off-season for whatever reason. So, the lineup is not half bad, minus a few holes that everybody but the Yankees has. But, let's look at the starting pitching. Here's the projected five starters' stats from last year:

Player        ERA    Record
A. Cook       4.23     9-15
J. Francis    4.16    13-11
R. Lopez      5.90     9-18
B.H. Kim      5.57     8-12
T. Buchholz   5.89     6-10

I admit, the top two aren't terrible. But, honestly, if you're a Rockies fan do you want to be cheering for the team trying to resurrect the careers of both Rodrigo Lopez and Bhung-Hyun Kim? Talk about a pitching coach's nightmare. Oh and if you look a little closer at the numbers you'll surely be asking the same question I am: "How the hell did Rodrigo Lopez get 26 starts last year?" No wonder the Orioles were crappy last year. Good luck seeing a resurrection out of him in Colorado.

Prediction: I can see Helton really starting to wear down and missing some games this year. They can't afford to lose any offense so I'm going to say they'll end up even worse than last year and finish at the bottom of the division.

"Wait, I Forgot They Had Bobby Abreu. Wow": New York Yankees 2007 Season Preview

It seemed appropriate to go more or less from the least talented (Royals) to the most talented (Yankees) in my team-by-team AL preview. And when I started brainstorming ideas about things to say, the title of this post is honestly the first thing that came to me. Bobby Abreu. Jesus. But for some reason, when I look at their lineup this year, I'm not as floored as I was in years past. Maybe that's just what happens when you don't see the Yankees in the series for awhile.

That said, I'll still partake in the time-honored practice of quickly running down the Yanks' lineup and marveling how murderous it is. Following is rough guesstimate of how Joe Torre will bat his guys:

1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Jason Giambi
5. A-Rod
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Robinson Cano
8. Jorge Posada
9. Doug Mintkiewicz

I think it's pretty self-evident that when you're almost forced to bat Cano 7th--a guy who, despite missing significant time with injury, ended up batting .342/15/78--your lineup is absolutely stacked (insert steroids joke here if you like).

But it's not going to be about the lineup for the Yanks, nor has it been the past several years now. While their lineup is aging fast, I think you'd be hard-pressed to deny that, in terms of sheer talent, it's by far the most dominant in all of baseball. The real issues for the Yanks are two-fold: the pitching staff and the pressure of living up to expectations.

The bullpen shapes up pretty well ahead of Rivera, with Kyle Farnsworth, Luis Vizcaino, Scott Proctor, and Mike Myers likely to see most of the work. But man, when I look at that starting rotation, all I see are question marks.

Is Wang really going to be as good as he was last year, or will hitters figure him out? Can Mussina and Pettitte squeeze the most out of their aging arms for yet another season? Has it really been 2 years since Carl Pavano pitched? Wow. Will Kei Igawa live up to the billing? I wouldn't be surprised if there was mass chaos in the rotation by June. Of course, if Clemens decides to come back, he's very capable of righting that ship. Note to Clemens: get over yourself. Note to ESPN and other major media outlets: get over Clemens.

But the pitching staff may be the least of the Yankees worries. There seems to be this inescapable unhealthy, self-defeating, distracting, anxiety-ridden aura about the Yankees anymore. It's as if the whole team has succumbed to the intense scrutiny of the media (which, of course, the media won't let us forget... how many times are we going to see stories about how the pressure of playing in New York is getting to players)? A-Rod, naturally, is the center of the focus, and maybe he brought this pox upon the Yankees, but it seems to have, perhaps inevitably, spread far beyond his own personal hang-ups.


Everybody on this team is forced to deal with the A-Rod cloud. And if that wasn't bad enough, A-Rod seem hellbent on perpetuating the media scrutiny by bringing up distracting bullshit about him and Jeter just as Spring Training gets under way. Randy Johnson has to be glad the Yanks soured on him. If I was on this team, I'd be doing some combination of rolling my eyes, groaning, dreading a season full of this shit, and contemplating beating A-Rod with a soap-bar laden sock, Apocalypse Now style. And, speaking as a White Sox fan, a baseball fan, and a fan of everything right and good in the world, there's something very appealing in the image of Joe Torre, shaven head, rocking in a dark corner, murmuring "the horror... the horror..." at the end of another season of expectations unmet.

"Unit's Gonna Need More Ben Gay!"; Diamondbacks 2007 Season Preview

We're starting things off with a bang. That's right the Arizona Diamondbacks. At first glance, it's really hard to find anything remarkable about this team. One thing I've never understood (bear with me): why the Arizona Diamondbacks? Who would choose the whole state over the city of Phoenix? First of all, you already have a mascot built in and who doesn't think this...


is more badass than this...

Don't get me wrong. I'm not about to fuck with a rattlesnake, but come on. A Phoenix is MADE OF FIRE for Christ sake. And just think about the "rising from the ashes" metaphors that Joe Buck could spew forth instead of talking about baseball (this just in: Joe Buck is offended by the word "spew"). An unforgivable oversight, if you ask me. That said why don't I hear "Brandon Webb's splitter is positively venomous tonight!" more often?

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, on to this generally unremarkable team. They have a handful of solid young (to young-ish) players like Orlando Hudson, Chad Tracy, and Conor Jackson around the infield, but the real star for this team in the future has to be Eric Byrnes (see photo from fall '06 Baseball Tonight appearance) in center field. Of course every Diamondbacks fan lives in constant fear of a freak hair-gel mishap. That stuff soaks right into your brain, you know. And, frankly I'm a little put off by anyone who refuses to bend the bill of his cap. That's right, I'm talking to you, Grandpa. Give me a just a little bow in there. You'll thank me later.

Of course, I'm avoiding the Diamondbacks only real move of the off season. They pulled the 40-year old changeroo on our asses letting Luis Gonzalez go to the Dodgers of Los Angeles (where he will be making 7.5 million this year, egads) and trading for the Randy Johnson Experience: Round Two. There's two problems with this scenario. There's nobody to replace Gonzo in LF with any level of experience. There's nobody playing in right either, for that matter. Not an encouraging scenario. The other problem here is that the fans in the desert are going to look up from their cactus and sand dinners and expect the Big Unit (still possibly the best nickname ever) from 3 years ago, and it just may not happen. He's fucking old, fyi.

Other reasons to not hate the Diamondbacks: 1. Webb. His sinker is really nasty and he's from Kentucky so that's bonus points. 2. The 2001 World Series. Seeing the Yankees lose that one was the most excited I've been for a game not involving one of my favorite teams.

Prediction: I think these guys improve their record, but finish near .500 and miss the playoffs again.

"This Man is Worth $55 Million": Kansas City Royals 2007 Season Preview

There's a special reason I start with the Royals in FTG's team-by-team preview, and it's not the poster boy of free agent market absurdity Gil Meche. But you'll have to read on to find out what that is...

These are heady times in Surprise, Arizona, where the Kansas City Royals broke camp this past week. And why shouldn't they be? Just look at the laundry list of coveted superstars the Royals have brought on board this year: Octavio Dotel (he was great in 2004! snatch him up on your fantasy team! I'm actually kinda serious...), David Riske (fast becoming a journeyman), Jason LaRue (Gage sheds a solitary tear), someone named Joakim Soria (not to be confused with the catfighting Noah), Ross (I'll fucking kill you if you keep calling me Choad while consistently relegating me to role player status--I bat .300, goddamnit!) Gload, and of course, everyone's favorite $55 million 4.65 career ERA (it's 4.82 the past 3 years!) man, Gilbert Allen Meche.

Yeah. That's the best they could do. In a word, the Royals are fucked. They'd be fucked even if they didn't have to play the White Sox and Tigers a total of 36 times this year. They'd be fucked even if they had not desperately inflated the free agent pitching market by throwing an obscene amount of cash at a mediocre-at-best middle-of-the-rotation won-a-career-high-15-games-back-in-2003 starting pitcher. They'd be fucked even if Mike Sweeney decided it was time to man up and stay off the DL this year. Why, you ask? Because they're just not that good.

A quick glance at their depth chart shows below-average and not necessarily up-and-coming players at every single position. Sure, Reggie Sanders is seemingly ageless and "is one handsome man" as Hawk would say as DJ sits there uncomfortably, but he's 39. If the Royals had any talent in the farm system at all, why in God's name are they wasting their time on Sanders when this team obviously isn't competing for anything this year? His veteran leadership, I suppose? Maybe, but Christ, you gotta think the Royals have a better option than Reggie Sanders. The only bright spot I can see is their third baseman Mark Teahen, who's still only 25 and showed a hell of a lot of improvement last year. The rotation doesn't need much analysis when your top two pitchers are Meche and Odalis Perez. Suck.

So with no hope save for the delusional variety hovering around Royals camp this year and many years past, how's the season being spun by the fans, you ask? Well, the bloggers are already bracing for disappointment. Which is odd, because when the Royals have sucked as long and as bad as they have, how can you be disappointed? You have to expect everyone to tank, right? I guess not. But at least they don't buy into the delusional optimism you see on the official Royals site, where Gil Meche is determined to earn his $11 million/year and Octavio Dotel is on the comeback trail.

But the main reason I wanted to kick off the team-by-team previews by disparaging the Royals is because I detest Rob Neyer, Royals superfan #whatever-the-fuck. Your team doesn't even have a player good enough to be a superfan of. I can't remember exactly why I detest you, Rob, but I think it has something to do with your holier-than-thou fancy-pants statistical analysis, your shit-eating grin and plaid shirt in your old ESPN headshot, the fact that you have disappeared behind the elitist Insider curtain, and that I vaguely recall you once making disparaging remarks about my White Sox. Yeah, it's becoming pretty clear to me now.

So enjoy another season of the Royals getting their asses handed to them, you cockjob.

OK, so this does not start the MLB team-by-team preview

but I felt compelled to post this picture from White Sox spring training camp so that I could say.... holy shit, where did the rest of Jose Contreras go? I read that he had done some intense off-season workouts, but this man is svelte.