Pitching be Damned; or, Predicting the NLCS

They say pitching and defense wins championships. First, let me point out the starting rotations of the remaining NL teams. I'll leave out the 4th and 5th starters, because at this point they don't matter so much anymore. First listed starter is the guy slated to go first tomorrow (and consequently get himself at least 2 starts in the LCS):

St. Louis
1. Jeff Weaver
2. Jeff Suppan
3. Chris Carpenter

New York
1. Tom Glavine
2. John Maine
3. Steve Trachsel

It doesn't take a brilliant man to see where I'm going with this: these pitching staffs blow. Save for Chris Carpenter (the one legitimate ace), not ONE of these guys posted an ERA of under 3.50 this season; Jeff Weaver (!) posted a robust ERA of over 5 since coming to the Cards. And that's pitching in the National League, where an ERA of 3.50 is roughly equivalent to 4.00-4.50 ERA in the NL (this is just a gut feeling on my part--see Bronson Arroyo).

So tell me, oh wise pundits, why the Mets remain such heavy favorites with the media-types without Pedro and El Duque to give them a semblance of a decent pitching staff. Sure, you can natter on about how Tom Glavine had a renaissance year, John Maine is the real deal, and Steve Trachsel has some veteran presence. Blah, blah, blah. I don't want to hear it. Somehow the Mets regular season record (who went 4-2 against the Cardinals, by the way; hardly a large enough sample to mean anything) and their offense is supposed to carry them through this series. Well, over in the AL we saw just how a great offense can be shut down by pitching (Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman). Now, I'm not saying that the Cardinals have the greatest staff in the world (God knows throwing Jeff Weaver in Game 1 seems like series suicide), but throwing Carpenter and Suppan out there (potentially two times each) gives them a fair chance at sending the Mets home.

I would compare offenses and defenses as well, but thinking too much about the eventual World Series loser makes me weary. Cards (because it's about damn time they made it this far) in 7.

Counterpoint: Magglio's Hair Looks Dumb

Oh Trout, you naive AL Central homer. Seriously, you just like to pick teams from the White Sox division and your favorite former Sox players, right? Too bad Carlos Lee isn't in the playoffs because surely you would have picked him to go all the way. Picking Maggs over big Frank is a silly proposition.
First, did you see that ALDS? The Big Hurt comes out of the gates with a two homer game. Magglio had a fine game 4 but games 1-3 he was 2/11 with 0 RBI. Frank hit .500 in their three games and I might remind you that he went 3/4 in the game Santana started.
Next, don't forget the history of it all. Last I checked, Frank had two MVP's to his name. And if you don't care about the history (what kind of baseball fan doesn't care about history?) just look at this year's HR/RBI totals. Magglio: 24/104. Big Hurt: 39/114. Run the math on that one. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Again, Magglio's hair looks dumb. However, in that picture you posted earlier today, he looks kind of fat too. Like "freshman fifteen" fat. Too many late night burrito runs, Magglio? Last minute term paper?
Finally, to touch on the other players. I love the Tigers young starters, but they are just that. Young. Zito and Loaiza have experience and aren't old or preoccupied with beating up cameramen like Kenny Rogers. More math: Huston Street > Todd Jones.
My only concern, the power of Jim Leyland's moustache. Don't underestimate it. I say it's worth at least two games all by itself.
Prediction: Athletics in 7

Frank Thomas v. Magglio Ordonez; Edge: Maggs

OK, so I know a little while back I predicted the Padres vs. the A's for the World Series. And now that one of my horses is gone, it's kinda dumb to jump ship on the other one. But I am. With the way they played against the Yanks, the Tigers convinced me that they're ready for the series. They remind me a lot of the White Sox last year, and that's a good thing.

Both of these teams have really good starting pitching staffs: Zito, Loaiza, Haren, and Harden for the A's; Robertson, Rogers, Verlander, Bonderman for the Tigers. But the Tigers handled a much tougher lineup in the Yanks than did the A's. This isn't to say the A's couldn't have as well, but the Tigers proved they're on their game. Edge: Tigers.

Both teams have outstanding bullpens, too. Even though Todd Jones has ridiculous facial hair and the desire to not strike anyone out, I still give the edge to the Tigers with Zumaya and company. All I can remember of Huston Street is that he gave up a huge homerun to Rob Mackowiak in a White Sox winner I was at earlier this year. That, and he's young and was out with injuries. Strange as it may sound, Todd Jones actually inspires more confidence than Street. Oh, and the Tigers pen also has this guy (a former White Sox, I might add--it's clear to me now why he only stayed one season):

It would be a goddamn shame if those didn't get busted out for another celebration.

Since I'm ignoring defense (I haven't really heard anything about either team and I'm too lazy to look up nebulous defensive stats), that leaves the lineups. Oakland's got Frank Thomas. Detroit's got Maggs. What this means is the following: Oakland's got just another run-of-the-mill shiny head, Detroit's got incredibly greasy "just another Venezuelan piece of shit" flowing mane. I could break down other aspects of this, but I think that's sufficient. Tigers it is! In 6.

Additional Thoughts on the Yankees' Demise

In response to Jim's Son's comment on the preceding post (concerning Bernie Williams' possible unmemorable end as a Yankee), I would say that all the "real" Yankees became obscured by the corporate Yankee monster at least a few seasons ago. Sucks for them, but that's what you get for being a part of such a thing.

That, and for as badly as it may have ended for Bernie Williams, he can at least look back on those titles that he was TRULY a part of. I can't help but think that winning it all this year would mean a little less for him, forced to share at-bats on this All-Star team that startingly resembles all the Olympic basketball teams that continue to get embarassed in international play (no team play? no defense? no role players? sounds familiar).

Bernie's like the guy who used to work at the local hardware store (to use a tired analogy) that everyone would smile at when they went in on Saturday, only to wake up one day and find himself working at Wal-Mart, stuck doing loss prevention. Instead of selling hardware to real people, he's selling video games and makeup to the folks that buy things so they can have some semblance of an identity. The world has changed, the world has changed.

And for as much as I pontificate on the Yankees, it obscures where the focus should really be--on the Tigers. It should be on a city that hasn't had a sliver of the success the Yanks have had in the past two decades (Bernie's got 4 rings in the time that the Tigers haven't even made the playoffs), and a team full of guys (like Kenny Rogers--remember how he punched that cameraman? So adorable...) that deserve, more than any other group I see in the playoffs right now, to be where they are. Did you SEE them celebrate with the fans after winning that game? I couldn't help but smile; it almost made me giddy. I know who my horse is the rest of the way.

There is a God

And He is not a Yankees fan.

Trout's Picks of Contrariety, Week 5

Keep up the good work, Gage. You're makin' me look smart. Now I just need to actually start betting on these games. I know, I know, you'll contend that I have no "strategy," that my picks take no "talent," that I "know little" about football. To that, I say, "whatever." The only strategy, talent, and intelligence I need is the complete opposite of a mediocre-at-best betting man.

The past two weeks I've been 6-4, baby, 6-4. Let me tell you how that projects over a 162-game baseball season: 97 wins. If the White Sox could've won at my pace, they would've just swept the A's in the divisional series instead of Frank Thomas and company trotting on to the ALCS after making the Twinkies' lineup look like they should've looked all year.

This week I make a prediction about my predictions: I will once again post a winning record.

NY Giants (-4.5) over Washington
Has anyone heard that Eli Manning is Peyton Manning's brother? Incredible! This information just crossed my desk this week, as I requested my handsome young page (I think he's 15; I know he likes strawberry ice cream) do some research on the New York football Giants. Thank God he came back with this gem; picking the Giants becomes a foregone conclusion on the strength of Manning juice alone.

Pittsburgh (+3) over San Diego
First, I would like to say to Gage that football teams going to the West Coast is nothing--NOTHING--like baseball teams doing the same thing. The reasons are numerous, but let me just give you one: taking a flight after a 7 PM start (or even a 1 PM start), getting in to the West Coast city in the wee hours, and then playing the next day (all this after playing day after day after day) is not remotely like hopping on a plane on Saturday, spending a leisurely day in town and then playing the next day. To that, I would add that Pittsburgh has a good defense. San Diego has a rookie (sort of) quarterback. Also, Bill Cowher is upset about losing. Pittsburgh not only covers, but wins.

Cleveland (+8) over Carolina
Charlie Frye to Braylon Edwards is the new Montana to Rice. Well, maybe not. But Poop Browns only lose by a TD.

Chicago (-10) over Buffalo
Do coked out hookers jump off bandwagons? I'm confused by Gage's analogy here. Not confused enough to pick Buffalo in this one, though. Chicago made me look dumb last week as they stomped Seattle. Here's a tip, Gage: Seattle (even without Jesus-loving Shaun Alexander) is better than Buffalo. Much better. Chicago by 2 TDs.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) over New Orleans
Everybody's jumping on the New Orleans bandwagon. Not I! A crappy Cadillac Williams and a Bruce Gradkowski (who has had 2 weeks to prepare, mind you--2 weeks!) will only lose by 6. I hope. Gradkowski will be a stellar "game manager," making Chris Simms wish he had had a stronger spleen.

Gage's Picks of Mediocrity (Week 5)

I refuse to speak ill of Mark Brunell for several weeks now. I have bet against him for several weeks and every week he has fucked me over. The record for consecutive completions? What the fuck was that? You got me you silly son of a bitch. At least this week the Bengals are on bye and I won't be tempted to bet on them. Just too emotional.
And, if you're wondering, yes I was at the game Sunday. No, I haven't come to terms with it. Talk about dropping a big turd. I haven't seen them play that bad in a couple of years. I'm surprised Carl Pickens didn't come out of retirement to make some disparaging comments about the organization. It was so bad I spent five minutes in the bathroom after the game listening to some drunk guy give me his thesis on why Marvin is a bad third quarter coach. Anyway, I'm picking games.

Washington (+4.5) over NY Giants
Let's get this out of the way. I'm reversing my fortunes on this one. Better late than never. Also, Clinton Portis is a stud. Everyone's still a little groggy after drinking the kool aid on the Giants and this line seems high.

San Diego (-3) over Pittsburgh
The Chargers lost a heartbreaker last week to Steve McNair and his crotchey old knees. I was standing in the concourse watching this one end last week and the whole crowd was in complete disbelief. Of course my dad began preaching about how great McNair is and would hear none of any argument, making me want to strangle someone. So, this is one they want to get back. And, I'm a firm believer in the trouble east coast teams have going out west for games (see the Reds season-killing west coast road trip) and having a hard time with the travel. I have no stats to back this up.

Carolina (-8) over Cleveland
Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith Steve Smith. Now name a Cleveland defensive back.

Buffalo (+10) over Chicago
Ten points!? Buffalo isn't that bad. I still say Chicago wins, but ten points is a lot. Of course, here is another one of those games that gives me a bad feeling. I've been riding Chicago all season and now I'm jumping off like a coked out hooker. What is wrong with me?

New Orleans (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
My first thought: the Saints are a better team by a touchdown than the Bucs on a neutral field and you gotta give them credit for playing at home. The superdome will be crazy again. I refuse to pick against them at home this year. (Note: after an ill-advised week off, my man crush on Drew Brees makes its triumphant return)

Last Week: 2-3 (again, goddamnit)
Season Record: 11-9

Jon's Picks:
Indy -18
Arizona +3.5
Pittsburgh +3
New England -10
Cleveland +8

Last Week: 2-3
Season Record: 10-9-1

A Long Way From Home Field: Two Months Following Soccer

I had World Cup fever. No idea what brought it on, but it hit me like a ton of bricks. I started watching USA friendlies in the spring and never looked back. Every match (read: game) was on TV, even the standard media outlets were covering the event. The whole thing was easy to get wrapped up in. It all culminated with my being fortunate enough to be in a hotel bar in Europe with a gaggle of 12 year old Italian kids for the final match. They laughed, cried, cheered and sang through the whole game. I was hooked, I was enthralled, I wanted to know more and suddenly it was all over. I was a man without a football club (read: soccer team). So I decided to follow English Premiere League (and the soccer world in general). I get Fox Soccer channel, why not? More specificially I was following Liverpool for the purposes of having a team. They are the Reds so it seemed only natural.

Here's an all-too-wordy rundown of what I've learned:
- It's really fucking hard to learn twenty new teams. As if just learning the players on Liverpool isn't hard enough, I can't even name every team in the Premiership. I'm constantly asking myself "Ok that jersey looks familiar, who is that?" followed by "Why the fuck can't they put their team name on the jersey instead of these goddamned ads?" Plus, the whole jersey situation is an enormous fiasco. In virtually every US sport the home team wears the solid color and the away team wears white. Easy. Not in the EPL. Liverpool wears solid red home jerseys but then wears solid yellow (why??) away jerseys. This leads to some confusion on my part. Take for example Liverpool vs. Chelsea. At Anfield (Liverpool's home field) the game would be a red team vs. a black team. However, switch the home team and you've got a yellow team vs. a blue team. Boggles the mind, no?

- Watching an entire sporting event with only a commercial break at halftime is incredible. You know how when you first get HBO you sit down to watch a show, get totally sucked in and the time just flys by? Episodes of Entourage seem to last only five minutes some weeks. As someone who regularly attends NFL games, I can tell you it can seem like you've seen three plays in the past twenty minutes. My only question is: when do these people take piss breaks?

- I'm having an unreasonably hard time understanding the post-season. Given 10 minutes I believe I could fully explain the playoffs for any major US sport to a reasonable person. Apparently Liverpool is playing in the Champions League. Teams from all over the world qualify and compete. The winner of the Champions League is generally considered the best team in the world. Last year Barcelona won it all. The final is sometime in the spring. But the really odd thing is that the Champions League matches are taking place DURING THE SEASON. This means a team will play a league game in their home country and then might go play in Iran or somewhere equally desolate and then come back to league play. Then there is a UEFA Cup for teams not good enough to qualify for the Champions League. I would guess this is a big deal as well. It seems that a NCAA/NIT comparison would not be accurate in terms of importance but I can't think or a better one. Also, I believe that teams busting out of the Champions League early can still go play in the UEFA Cup. Astounding. Then there's some other league championship in the English system but I'm so spent at this point that I don't have the energy to investigate.

(I realize Trout will chide me for this, but did you ever see Baseketball where the playoffs are this ridiculously drawn out system and Al Michaels and Bob Costas look completely overwhemed? That's how I feel.)

- Liverpool's manager, Rafa Benitez, has used something like 94 straight different starting lineups. Jerry Narron has found his soulmate.

- Arsenal's manager is named Arsene. Did he change that after getting the job? Is it just fate? Kismet? Not sure why, but I really needed to get this off my chest.

- There are about eight billion teams throughout the world, and a lot of them play in various tournaments, etc. What an awesome thing, to have a truly world game be played in a global manner. However, it seems that there are less than ten teams who truly have a chance at winning the Champions League, a few from England, a couple from Spain, a couple French teams and some others sprinkled in. That kind of sucks, but there's no real way to creat parity throughout the entire world. (And don't forget to never, ever mention MLS)

- Other countries take their national teams VERY seriously. It was front page news this week that England is thinking about using a 3-5-2 lineup in their next match. 3-5-2!!! OMFG!!! Seriously, take a deep breath.

- USA still doesn't have a coach and still can't pull their heads out of their asses. It was probably time for Arena to go, but you might want to hire somebody else in the meantime. Plus, they just got invited to play in the South American championship next summer which seems like a good idea but will be hard to do with no coach or team. On a similar note, I'm not the one to come up with this idea, but why not have a North/South America tournament every four years? Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and USA would probably be the top four teams with some scrappy underdogs (assuming the USA doesn't fall off the map). That would be fun to watch and on maybe even on par with the Euro tournament.

Well, that seems like enough for now. If you made it this far, here's your lesson: there's a lot of fucking soccer out there, and it's hard to keep track, but for those of us who are the type to check the MLB standings daily, it can be real fun. And, it's still great to watch.

Ruminations on a Joyless Triple Crown

So the baseball playoffs are here, and that means we get to endure the media fawnings over the Yankees (who, by the way, literally have an All-Star at every position now; it was only a matter of time) and Derek Jeter, his "leadership," his "intangibles," his "clutch performance," and his "smooth balls." Or at least that's what I thought I heard Tim McCarver say. Anyway, since the Sox aren't in it this year (and, surprise, neither is my surrogate team, the Redlegs), I find myself less interested in the games, no matter how spectacularly ridiculous Torii Hunter's defensive hijinks are (By the way, I still hate you Torii Hunter for completely unnecessarily bowling over Jamie Burke two years ago. I hope you look half-retarded in the outfield again tomorrow, hastening your goddamn Twinkies to a swift exit). I think the disinterestedness has to do with the Sox winning it all last year; playoffs used to be exciting no matter who I was watching (the Yanks-Arizona series a few years back comes to mind); now with every game I just think: "Goddamnit, the White Sox would beat this team. ARGHAGHGAGH." Even though I know they wouldn't. I digress.

Since the playoffs are here, that means the fantasy baseball season has drawn to a close, and on Monday morning I celebrated an unprecedented triple crown victory in my three different leagues. I don't know if I can possibly picture a more anticlimactic and somber victory, eating my banana and Cheerios as always, drinking my grapefruit juice, staring at the computer monitor and saying (out loud, I think), "Hey, I won all three leagues," knowing full well that about 85% of the people I was competing against stopped giving half a shit way back in August, if not before. I told my fiancee and she barely grunted. I guess maybe she was desensitized to such information since I said to her nearly every day in July, "Hey, I'm first place in all three of my fantasy leagues! This is crazy!" She didn't even bother to humor me anymore.

So, as I noted earlier, the victory becomes almost sad when I start to reflect on how many hours of my life I devoted over the past six months to figuring out whether or not I should keep Javier Vazquez for his strikeouts while eating his ridiculously high ERA, searching frantically for a trade to scrounge more stolen bases at midseason, pondering when I had built up a big enough lead in saves to start trading for starting pitching. The list could go on and on. And what do I have to show for it? Three more first place trophy icons on my Yahoo Fantasy profile. Which I and I alone check. Wow. It really starts to make one question one's existence. Yeah, I know, I should start up or join a money league so that people actually pay attention for the whole season and I have something to show for my efforts. But to that I say: all my friends are cheap pussies. And not the good kind. That, and I don't have many friends (I wonder why that is?).

So for now I'll have to content myself doing things like dropping Aramis Ramirez with 3 days left in the season because he isn't getting at-bats, checking how many strikeouts I need to catch the guy in front of me (who has been playing Mark Mulder for the past 2 months), and the like--all so, for one brief moment in March next year, I can remind people I was the winner this year.

Don't tell anyone, but I like Ryan Howard with the first pick next year. I can't wait.

Keep Your Self Control...

I love rummaging through old record bins. Sometimes you can't find a damn thing worth paying 50 cents for, and that blows. But, sometimes you find something truly unexpected and wonderful and it's all worthwhile. This was one of those special weeks and I found an album I think I can call... well magical. For your viewing pleasure:

That's right sports fans. This is a Cincinnati Bengals sponsored 12" vinyl of a song creatively titled "Just Say No." The date is listed as 1987. But there'se more! The backside features a picture of three Bengals players (Ira Hillary, Mike Martin and Reggie Williams) who all supposedly actually contributed to this sweet hybrid of music and message. Reggie Williams appears to be the leader of this band of do-gooders. That's right, the Dartmouth educated, Flint MI born Reggie Willams who has the enviable distinction of playing in both Bengals' Super Bowl losses AND even served on Cincinnati's city council for a couple years. How did he find the time!?

Were I more prepared and a little bit less lazy I would have captured this song to an mp3, but frankly it's just as terrible as you can probably imagine. My best description is Hall and Oates meets Lionel Ritchie ("All Night Long," not "Hello") but in a really shitty generic sort of way. Lots of snythesizers and an instrumental break featuring an alarming amount of cowbell. I took the liberty of transcribing the lyrics. And, no, I don't know whether or not they were personally written by Nancy Regan, so don't ask.

I met a girl so sad and lonely
She said her world was incomplete
Her friends tried to persuade her to do bad things
That's when i had to enter scene, I told her...

Chorus
Just say no
Keep your self control
Then you'll know your mind is free
I've got too far to go
To get to where I want to be

It's really a no win situation
Pollute your mind with chemical things
We must avoid the complications
And find out what we really really need

[Chorus]
(Say No!) (I reeeealllly wanna say No)

Bridge
Don't be afraid to turn away
(Don't be afraid to turn away)
Your destiny is worth a whole lot more
If you just say no

[cowbell, synthesizer, a shit-ton more cowbell]
la da da da da

[Bridge, again for some reason]

Don't be afraid to turn away
(Don't be afraid to turn away)
Your destiny is worth a whole lot more
If you would say (say no no no no no, say no)
Just say it again (no no no no no no no no)
Just really say it!

[Chorus]

So there you have it. One of the finest pieces of music ever composed and put to plastic. Frankly, with the current state of the 2006 Bengals it's nice to know that there was somebody actually not doing drugs on the team. Pass you by, glory days....

On another note, a friend of mine who teaches design pointed out that the cover of this album is one of the most poorly designed things he's ever seen and intends to use it in class as a "what not to do" example. Just all around fantastic.